⏛᳇⏛᳇
⏛᳇⏛᳇ࠪࡒࡘ࡚ࠪࡦࠪࡒࡘ࡚ࠪࡦࠪࡒࡘ࡚ࠪࡦࠍࠪࡒࡘ࡚ࠪࡦࠍࠍ↪ࠍ↪↪ߚ↪ߚߚߚ㕒ᱛ゠ⅣႺ੍᷹㕒ᱛ゠ⅣႺ੍᷹㕒ᱛ゠ⅣႺ੍᷹㕒ᱛ゠ⅣႺ੍᷹㧦㧦㧦㧦᷹᷹᷹᷹ⷰⷰⷰⷰߣߩߣߩߣߩ⛔⸘⸃ᨆߣߩ⛔⸘⸃ᨆ⛔⸘⸃ᨆ⛔⸘⸃ᨆ
ਛ 㓷ᄦޔဈ↰ ᥓ㧔ᄢ㒋ᐭ┙ᄢቇ㧕ޔፉᵤ ᶈືޔຠᎹ ਯ㧔ᖱႎㅢା⎇ⓥᯏ᭴)ޔ
⮮↰ ⨃㧔᳇⽎ᄢቇᩞ㧕ޔ↰ਛ 㜞ผ㧔Ꮊᄢቇ㧕
Statistical analysis for GEO plasma environment prediction using real-time magnetosphere simulation and observation
M. S. Nakamura, T. Sakata, H. Shimazua, H. Shinagawa, S. Fujita, T. Tanaka
ⷐ
ⷐ
ⷐ
ⷐ
ᖱႎㅢା⎇ⓥᯏ᭴㧔NICT㧕ߩࠕ࡞࠲ࠗࡓ⏛᳇ࠪࡒࡘ࡚ࠪࡦ߆ࠄᓧࠄࠇࠆ㕒ᱛ゠
ߩࡊ࠭ࡑⅣႺߣⴡᤊ᷹ⷰߣߩᲧセ⛔⸘⸃ᨆࠍ߅ߎߥޔ㕒ᱛ゠ࡊ࠭ࡑⅣႺߣⴡ ᤊᏪ㔚੍᷹ߦߟߡ߽ㅀߴࠆޕ
ߪߓߦ ߪߓߦ ߪߓߦ ߪߓߦ
ᖱႎㅢା⎇ⓥᯏ᭴ߢߪޔ㧟ᰴరߩ㔚⏛ᵹ㧔Magneto-hydrodynamics: MHD㧕⸘▚ᚻᴺ ࠍ↪ߡࠕ࡞࠲ࠗࡓߢ⏛᳇ࠪࡒࡘ࡚ࠪࡦ߇߅ߎߥࠊࠇߡࠆޕߘߩࠪࠬ࠹ࡓߩ
ⷐࠍ࿑㧝ߦ␜ߔޕACE㧔Advanced Composition Explorer㧕ⴡᤊߪޔ߆ࠄᄥ㓁ᣇะߦ
⚂150ਁkm㔌ࠇߚᄥ㓁ߣߩᒁജ߇ߟࠅ߁ࠣࡦࠫࡘ╙㧝ὐߦࠅޔᄥ㓁㘑ߩ᷹ⷰ
࠺࠲ࠍߦࠕ࡞࠲ࠗࡓߦㅍߞߡࠆޕACEⴡᤊ߆ࠄㅍࠄࠇߚᄥ㓁㘑ߩኒᐲޔ᷷ᐲޔ ㅦᐲޔ⏛႐ࠍㅙᰴജࡄࡔ࠲ߣߒߡޔࠬࡄࠦࡦࡇࡘ࠲NEC SX-6㧔ߪ SX-8Rߦᦝᣂ㧕ߩ1ࡁ࠼ࠍභߒߡޔ⏛᳇ࠪࡒࡘ࡚ࠪࡦ߇߅ߎߥࠊࠇߡࠆޕᄥ㓁 㘑ߪᐔဋߔࠆߣ⚂㧠⊖km/sߩㅦᐲࠍᜬߜޔAECⴡᤊߩ⟎ࠍㅢㆊߒߚᄥ㓁㘑ߪޔ⚂1ᤨ㑆ᓟ ߦ⏛᳇ߦ㆐ߔࠆޕߒߚ߇ߞߡޔ⸘▚⚿ᨐߪޔ⚂㧝ᤨ㑆ᓟߩ⏛᳇ߩ⁁ᘒࠍ੍᷹ߒ ߡࠆߎߣߦߥࠆޕߎߩ⸘▚⚿ᨐߪޔࠕ࡞࠲ࠗࡓߦࠗࡦ࠲ࡀ࠶࠻ߦ㐿ߐࠇߡࠆޕ (http://www2.nict.go.jp/y/y223/simulation/realtime/home.html)
㕒ᱛ゠㕒ᱛ゠
㕒ᱛ゠㕒ᱛ゠ࡊ࠭ࡑࡊ࠭ࡑࡊ࠭ࡑⅣႺࡊ࠭ࡑⅣႺⅣႺⅣႺߣߣߣߣⴡᤊ㕙Ꮺ㔚ⴡᤊ㕙Ꮺ㔚ⴡᤊ㕙Ꮺ㔚ⴡᤊ㕙Ꮺ㔚
㕒ᱛ゠ߩࡊ࠭ࡑⅣႺߪޔᄥ㓁㘑ߩᄌൻߦࠃࠆ⏛᳇ߩᡓੂߦߣ߽ߥᄢ߈ߊᄌൻߔ ࠆޕ․ߦޔⴡᤊ㓚ኂߩේ࿃ߣߥࠆࡊ࠭ࡑⅣႺߩ㧝ߟߣߒߡޔ⏛᳇የㇱ߆ࠄߩᢙ㨪ᢙච keV ߩ㔚ሶߩଚ߇ߍࠄࠇࠆޕⴡᤊㄝࡊ࠭ࡑ߆ࠄⴡᤊ߳ߩ㔚ᵹᡰࠍ⠨߃ߚ႐วޔ 㔚ሶߪࠗࠝࡦߦᲧߴߡ⚂1800シߊޔหߓ᷷ᐲߥࠄᾲㅦᐲ߇⚂40߽ㅦߩߢޔࠗࠝࡦ ߦᲧߴߡ㔚ᵹᡰ߳ߩᓇ㗀߇ᄢ߈ߊޔⴡᤊ㔚ࠍࠆߩߦ㊀ⷐߥᓎഀࠍᨐߚߒߡࠆޕ ߟ߹ࠅޔᢙ㨪ᢙචkeV ߩ㔚ሶ߇Ⴧടߔࠆߣޔㄝࡊ࠭ࡑ߆ࠄߩ㔚ሶ㔚ᵹ߇Ⴧᄢߒޔᤨߣ ߒߡࡑࠗ࠽ࠬᢙ kV߹ߢⴡᤊ㔚ࠍૐਅߐߖࠆޕߘߩ⚿ᨐޔ㔚߇ߎࠆน⢻ᕈ߇㜞߹ࠅޔ ⴡᤊ㓚ኂ߇ߎࠆෂ㒾ᕈ߇ࠆޕ৻⥸ߦޔ㕒ᱛ゠߳ߩᢙ㨪ᢙච keVߩ㔚ሶߩଚߪޔ
⏛᳇ᡓੂߦߞߡ߅ߎࠅޔߢࠝࡠࡉࠗࠢࠕ࠶ࡊ߇ߒ߫ߒ᷹߫ⷰߐࠇࠆߚޔ ࠨࡉࠬ࠻ࡓࡊ࠭ࡑࠗࡦࠫࠚ࡚ࠢࠪࡦߣ߽߫ࠇࠆޕ
32
ޓቝቮ⥶ⓨ⎇ⓥ㐿⊒ᯏ᭴․⾗ᢱޓ
JAXA-SP-08-018This document is provided by JAXA.
࿑㧝㧦ᖱႎㅢା⎇ⓥᯏ᭴ߩࠕ࡞࠲ࠗࡓ⏛᳇ࠪࡒࡘ࡚ࠪࡦࠪࠬ࠹ࡓߩⷐ
⸘▚ᚻᴺ
⸘▚ᚻᴺ
⸘▚ᚻᴺ
⸘▚ᚻᴺߣߣߣ⸘▚⚿ᨐߣ⸘▚⚿ᨐ⸘▚⚿ᨐ⸘▚⚿ᨐ
⏛᳇ࠪࡒࡘ࡚ࠪࡦߢߪޔ㔚⏛ᵹ
㧔MHD㧕⸘▚ᚻᴺ߇↪ࠄࠇߡࠆޕ ߎߩ⸘▚ᴺߪޔࠗࠝࡦߣ㔚ሶ߆ࠄᚑࠆࡊ
࠭ࡑࠍ㧝ᵹߣㄭૃߒߡ⸃ߊᣇᴺߢޔ ታ⾰⊛ߦޔࡊ࠭ࡑߩ⾰㊂ߩᄢㇱಽࠍᜂ ߞߡࠆࠗࠝࡦߩᵹ⊛ㆇേࠍ⸘▚ߔࠆ ߎߣ߇ߢ߈ࠆޕߒ߆ߒޔࡊ࠭ࡑࠍᵹ
ㄭૃߒߚߚޔࡊ࠭ࡑߩ☸ሶ⊛ᕈ⾰ࠍ ขࠅᛒ߃ߕޔ☸ሶലᨐߦࠃࠆടᾲടㅦ
߿ౝㇱ⏛᳇ߩᒝ⏛႐㗔ၞߦ߅ߌࠆ࠼
ࡈ࠻ㆇേߥߤ߇ᱜߒߊขࠅᛒ߃ߥޕ߹
ߚ㕒ᱛ゠ࡊ࠭ࡑⅣႺߩᓇ㗀ߣߒߡޔ ⴡᤊ㕙Ꮺ㔚ࠍ⠨߃ߚ႐วޔᢙ㨪ᢙච keVߩ㔚ሶ߇㊀ⷐߢࠆߩߦޔታ⾰⊛ߦ
ࠗࠝࡦᵹㆇേߛߌࠍขࠅᛒߞߡࠆߣ
߁㗴߇ࠆޕ
࿑㧞ߦޔ2006ᐕ 215 ᣣ09:28UT ߩ⸘▚⚿ᨐࠍ␜ߔޕ⏛᳇የㇱߦޔ⏛ജ
✢ߩ࡞ࡊ᭴ㅧߦ࿐߹ࠇߚࡊ࠭ࡑߩ
ജ߇㜞㗔ၞ߇ࠆޕߎࠇߪࡊ࠭ࡕࠗ
ᄥ㓁㘑䈱䊥䉝䊦䉺䉟䊛䊂䊷䉺
(ኒᐲ䇮᷷ᐲ䇮ㅦᐲ䇮⏛႐)䉴䊷䊌䊷䉮䊮䊏䊠䊷䉺䊷 NEC SX-6 㹢NEC SX-8R
⸘▚䈫นⷞൻ
ACEⴡᤊ䊡䊷䉱䊷┵ᧃ 䈱䊑䊤䉡䉱
࿑㧞㧦2006ᐕ215ᣣ09:28UTߩ⸘▚⚿
ᨐޕ⏛ജ✢㧔Ꮐ㧕ޔሶඦ㕙ౝߩࡊ࠭ࡑ
ജಽᏓ㧔ฝ㧕ޔᭂၞ㔚㔌ጀߩ╬㔚✢ߣ㔚
᳇વዉᐲಽᏓ㧔Ꮐਅ㧕ޔ⸘▚ߦ↪ߚ⋥೨㧢
ᤨ㑆ߩᄥ㓁㘑࠺࠲㧔ฝਅ㧕ޕ
33
╙㧡࿁ޟቝቮⅣႺࠪࡦࡐࠫ࠙ࡓޠ⻠Ṷ⺰ᢥ㓸
This document is provided by JAXA.
࠼ߣ߫ࠇޔ⏛᳇የㇱᣇะߦߐࠇࠆޕࡊ࠭ࡕࠗ࠼ߩ⊒↢ߣหᤨߦޔኻ㧔㧕 ᣇะߩᵹࠇ߇↢ߓޔౝㇱ⏛᳇㗔ၞߩࡊ࠭ࡑജࠍߐߖࠆޕߎࠇߪޔࡊ࠭ࡑࠗ
ࡦࠫࠚ࡚ࠢࠪࡦߦ⋧ᒰߒޔ⸘▚⚿ᨐ߇ࠨࡉࠬ࠻ࡓߩ⊒↢ࠍቯᕈ⊛ߦౣߒߡࠆߎߣࠍ
␜ߒߡࠆޕߎߩ࿑ߪ⚂㧝ಽᲤߦᦝᣂߐࠇޔ㧝ᣣᲤߦേ↹ߣߒߡࠕࠞࠗࡉߐࠇߡࠆޕ
᷹᷹ⷰⷰ
᷹᷹ⷰⷰߣߩߣߩߣߩߣߩᲧセᲧセᲧセߣᲧセߣߣߣ⛔⸘⸃ᨆ⛔⸘⸃ᨆ⛔⸘⸃ᨆ⛔⸘⸃ᨆ
⸘▚⚿ᨐߣ᷹ⷰߣࠍᲧセߔࠆߚޔLos Alamos National Laboratory (LANL)ߩ㕒ᱛ゠
ⴡᤊタߩMagnetospheric Plasma Analyzer (MPA)ߩKey Parameterߣߒߡ㐿ߐࠇߡ
ࠆޔࠗࠝࡦኒᐲ(0.13-45 keV/e)ߣ㔚ሶኒᐲ(0.03-45 keV/q)ߣߘࠇߙࠇߩ᷷ᐲ㧔⏛႐ߦᐔⴕ ᚑಽߣု⋥ᚑಽߩᐔဋ୯㧕ࠍ5ಽᐔဋߒߚ୯ࠍ↪ߚޕ࿑㧟ߦޔ2006ᐕ215ᣣߩ⸘▚
⚿ᨐߣ᷹ⷰ࠺࠲ࠍ␜ߔޕߚߛߒޔࡊ࠭ࡑࠗࡦࠫࠚ࡚ࠢࠪࡦߦ⌕⋡ߒߡࠆߚޔ⏛
᳇ᣇᤨ(MLT)ߢ 21㨪3 ᤨߩᄛߩ᷹ⷰ⚿ᨐߣ⸘▚⚿ᨐߩ㕒ᱛ゠ߩ⌀ᄛਛ⟎ߢߩ୯ࠍ Ყセߒߚޕߎߩᣣޔ᷹ⷰߣ⸘▚⚿ᨐߩਔᣇߢޔ㕒ᱛ゠ߢߩᄢ߈ߥജ߇㧟࿁ࠄࠇ ߚޕACEⴡᤊ⟎ߢߩᄥ㓁㘑߇ߦ㆐ߔࠆߩߦ⚂㧝ᤨ㑆߆߆ࠆߎߣࠍ⠨ᘦߔࠆߣޔ⸘
▚⚿ᨐߪޔࡊ࠭ࡑࠗࡦࠫࠚ࡚ࠢࠪࡦߩ⊒↢࠲ࠗࡒࡦࠣࠍቯᕈ⊛ߦౣߒߡࠆߎߣ߇ ࠊ߆ࠆޕߎߎߢߪ࿑ߪ␜ߐߥ߇ޔࠗࠝࡦߩ᷹ⷰߣ⸘▚⚿ᨐ߇ቯ㊂⊛ߦวߞߡߥ[ਛ
et al., 2006]ޕߒ߆ߒޔ㔚ሶߩജᄌേߦ⌕⋡ߔࠆߣޔ⸘▚⚿ᨐߣ᷹ⷰ߇ቯ㊂⊛ߦᲧセ⊛⦟
ߊวߞߡࠆޕߎߩߎߣߪޔ㔚ሶߪޔࡊ࠭ࡑࠗࡦࠫࠚ࡚ࠢࠪࡦߩߣ߈ߦޔᵹ⊛ߥᢿ ᾲㆊ⒟ߦࠃࠆജࠍฃߌࠆߎߣ߆ࠄޔ㔚⏛ᵹ⸘▚߆ࠄᓧࠄࠇࠆജᄌേߣቯ㊂⊛ߦ
⦟ߊว⥌ߒߚߣ⠨߃ࠄࠇࠆޕߒ߆ ߒޔኒᐲߣ᷷ᐲߦߟߡߪቯ㊂⊛
ߥว⥌ߪࠄࠇߕޔ⸘▚⚿ᨐߢᓧ ࠄࠇࠆኒᐲߪޔ߶ߣࠎߤߩ႐วޔ
᷹ⷰࠃࠅ߆ߥࠅᄢ߈ߥ୯ߣߥߞߡ
ࠆޕߘߩߚޔኒᐲࠍޔ᷹ⷰߢ ࠃߊࠄࠇࠆ0.5/ccߣቯߒߡޔ
⸘▚⚿ᨐߩജ߆ࠄౣ⸘▚ߒߡ᳞
ߚ᷷ᐲߣ᷹ⷰߢᓧࠄࠇߚ㔚ሶ᷷
ᐲࠍᲧセߒߡߺߚޕߘߩ⚿ᨐޔ᷷
ᐲߩ࠲ࠗࡒࡦࠣ߿᷹ⷰߢߩ᷷
ᐲ୯߇ޔ㔚ሶജࠃࠅ⦟ߊ৻
⥌ߔࠆߎߣ߇ࠊ߆ߞߚޕ
ߎߩౣ⸘▚ߒߚ᷷ᐲߣ᷹ⷰߢᓧ ࠄࠇߚ㔚ሶ᷷ᐲߣߩಽᢔ࿑ࠍޔ࿑
㧠ߦ␜ߔޕ߶߷ోߡߩὐ߇ޔ࿑ਛ ߩ✢ࠃࠅਅߦಽᏓߒߡࠆޕߟ߹
࿑㧟㧦2006ᐕ215ᣣߦ4ᯏߩLANL㕒ᱛ゠ⴡ ᤊ㧔A2,A1,L4,L7㧕߇᷹ⷰߒߚᄛ㧔MLT㧦21ᤨ㨪 3 ᤨ㧕ߩޔ߆ࠄ㔚ሶኒᐲޔ㔚ሶ᷷ᐲޔ㔚ሶജߩ 㧡ಽᐔဋ୯ߦޔ⸘▚⚿ᨐߩ㕒ᱛ゠ߩ⌀ᄛਛ⟎ߢ ᓧࠄࠇߚኒᐲޔ᷷ᐲޔജࠍ㊀ߨߡ␜ߒߚޕ৻⇟ਅ ߩࠣࡈߪޔኒᐲࠍ0.5/ccߣ߅ߡ⸘▚⚿ᨐߩ
ജ߆ࠄౣ⸘▚ߒߚ᷷ᐲޕ⸘▚⚿ᨐߪޔ᷹ⷰߦᲧߴᄥ 㓁㘑ߩ㆐ᤨ㑆㧔⚂㧝ᤨ㑆㧕ߛߌ೨ߦࠪࡈ࠻ߒߡ
ࠆޕ
34
ޓቝቮ⥶ⓨ⎇ⓥ㐿⊒ᯏ᭴․⾗ᢱޓ
JAXA-SP-08-018This document is provided by JAXA.
ࠅޔߎߩ✢ߪ᷹ⷰߐࠇࠆ㔚ሶ᷷
ᐲߩ㒢୯ࠍ␜ߒߡࠆޕߚߛ ߒޔ⸘▚⚿ᨐ߆ࠄౣ⸘▚ߒߡ᳞
ߚ⚿ᨐߪޔᄙߊߩ႐ว㔚ሶ᷷
ᐲࠍㆊᄢߦ੍᷹ߒߡࠆߎߣ ߇ࠊ߆ࠆޕߎࠇߪޔ⸘▚⚿ᨐߦ ߅ߡߪޔ⏛᳇߇⨹ࠇߚ⁁ᘒ ߇ޔ᷹ⷰࠃࠅ㐳ߊ⛯ߊะ߇
ࠆߎߣޕ߹ߚޔ᷹ⷰߦ߅ߡߪޔ 㔚ሶ᷷ᐲ߿ജߩߪޔታ㓙 ߦߪዪᚲ⊛ߥ⽎ߢޔ㕒ᱛ゠
ߢߩ㔚ሶ᷷ᐲߩᦨᄢ୯߇ᔅ ߕߒ߽ోߡⴡᤊߢ᷹ⷰߐࠇߡ
ࠆࠊߌߢߪߥߎߣߥߤ߇ේ࿃ߣ⠨߃ࠄࠇࠆޕ
ߕࠇߦߖࠃޔ㔚ሶ᷷ᐲߩ㒢୯ࠍ␜ߔߎߣߛߌߢ߽ޔⴡᤊ㔚ߩᦨᄢ୯ࠍ੍᷹ߔࠆ
ߢޔචಽᗧ߇ࠆߣ⠨߃ࠄࠇࠆޕ
߹ߣ߹ߣ
߹ߣ߹ߣ
ᖱႎㅢା⎇ⓥᯏ᭴ߩࠕ࡞࠲ࠗࡓ⏛᳇ࠪࡒࡘ࡚ࠪࡦࠍ↪ߚޔ㕒ᱛ゠ߩࡊ࠭
ࡑⅣႺޔ․ߦ㔚ሶ᷷ᐲߩ㒢୯ߩ⚂㧝ᤨ㑆೨੍᷹ߩน⢻ᕈࠍ␜ߒߚޕߎߩ㔚ሶ᷷ᐲߪޔ ⴡᤊ㕙Ꮺ㔚ߣ⋥ធ㑐ଥ߇ࠆߚޔⴡᤊᏪ㔚੍᷹ߣߒߡᵴ↪ߢ߈ࠆߣ⠨߃ࠄࠇࠆޕ
ෳ⠨ᢥ₂
ਛ 㓷ᄦޔઁޔޟ⏛᳇ࠪࡒࡘ࡚ࠪࡦࠍ↪ߚ㕒ᱛ゠ࡊ࠭ࡑⅣႺ੍ႎޠޔ╙㧟࿁
ޟቝቮⅣႺࠪࡦࡐࠫ࠙ࡓޠ⻠Ṷ⺰ᢥ㓸ޔJAXA-SP-06-035ޔ2006
Den, M. et al.;“Real-Time Earth’s Magnetosphere Simulator with 3-Dimensional MHD Code”, Space Weather, 4, S06004, doi:10.1029/2004SW000100, 2006
Tanaka, T.;“Finite Volume TVD Scheme on an unstructured Grid System for Three-Dimensional MHD Simulations of Inhomogeneous Systems Including Strong Background Potential Fields”,J. Geophys. Res., 111, 381, 1994.
㫐㩷㪔㩷㪈㪅㪈㪌㫏㩷㪂㩷㪈㪌㪇㪇
㪇 㪌㪇㪇㪇 㪈㪇㪇㪇㪇
㪇 㪌㪇㪇㪇 㪈㪇㪇㪇㪇 㪈㪌㪇㪇㪇 㪉㪇㪇㪇㪇 㪉㪌㪇㪇㪇
㪤㪟㪛㩷㩿㪝㫀㫏㪅㩷㪥㪼㪔㪇㪅㪌㪲㪆㪺㪺㪴㪀㩷㫋㪼㫄㫇㪼㫉㪸㫋㫌㫉㪼㩷㪲㪼㪭㪴
㪜㫃㪼㪺㫋㫉㫆㫅㩷㫋㪼㫄㫇㪼㫉㪸㫋㫌㫉㪼㩷㪲㪼㪭㪴
࿑㧠㧦2006 ᐕ2ಽߩ⸘▚⚿ᨐߩജ߆ࠄኒᐲࠍ 0.5
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