ࡽࢀ࡚࠸࡞࠸㸬ࡇࡢ⌮⏤࡜ࡋ࡚ࡣ㸪ࢿࢵࢺࣜࢧ࣮ࢳࡣ࢔ࢡࢭࢫࣃࢿࣝࢆᑐ㇟࡜ࡋ࡚࠾ࡾ㸪ᅇ⟅⪅ࣂ࢖࢔ࢫ ࡀ㑊ࡅࡽࢀ࡞࠸࡜࠸࠺ࡇ࡜࡟㉳ᅉࡋ࡚࠸ࡿ㸬ࡋ࠿ࡋ࡞ࡀࡽ㸪ࢿࢵࢺࣜࢧ࣮ࢳ࡛㑅ᣲ᝟ໃㄪᰝࢆᐇ᪋ࡋࡓሙ

ࢿࢵࢺࣜࢧ࣮ࢳࢆ⏝࠸ࡓ᭷ᶒ⪅ࡢ㑅ᢥ཯ᛂᐇ㦂ࡢヨࡳ

Verifying the Selective Reaction of Voters using Online Surveys

ᮧୖᬛ❶ 7RPRDyLp}UDyDPL

ࠑせ᪨ࠒ

ࢿࢵࢺࣜࢧ࣮ࢳࡣ࣐࣮ࢣࢸ࢕ࣥࢢ࣭ࣜࢧ࣮ࢳ࡛ࡼࡃ⏝࠸ࡽࢀ࡚࠸ࡿࡀ㸪㑅ᣲ᝟ໃㄪᰝ࡛ࡣ࡯࡜ࢇ࡝⏝࠸

ࡽࢀ࡚࠸࡞࠸㸬ࡇࡢ⌮⏤࡜ࡋ࡚ࡣ㸪ࢿࢵࢺࣜࢧ࣮ࢳࡣ࢔ࢡࢭࢫࣃࢿࣝࢆᑐ㇟࡜ࡋ࡚࠾ࡾ㸪ᅇ⟅⪅ࣂ࢖࢔ࢫ ࡀ㑊ࡅࡽࢀ࡞࠸࡜࠸࠺ࡇ࡜࡟㉳ᅉࡋ࡚࠸ࡿ㸬ࡋ࠿ࡋ࡞ࡀࡽ㸪ࢿࢵࢺࣜࢧ࣮ࢳ࡛㑅ᣲ᝟ໃㄪᰝࢆᐇ᪋ࡋࡓሙ

ྜ࡟㸪࡝ࡢ⛬ᗘࡢண ⢭ᗘࡀ࠶ࡿࡢ࠿ࡣ඘ศ࡟᳨ドࡉࢀ࡚ࡣ࠸ࡿࢃࡅ࡛ࡣ࡞࠸㸬ᮏ◊✲࡛ࡣ㸪 ᖺࡢ⾗

㆟㝔㑅ࢆࢣ࣮ࢫࢫࢱࢹ࢕࡜ࡋ࡚㸪ࢿࢵࢺࣜࢧ࣮ࢳࡢ෌⌧ᛶࡸ㑅ᣲሗ㐨࡟ࡼࡿ࢔ࢼ࢘ࣥࢫ࣓ࣥࢺຠᯝࡀ࡝ࡢ

⛬ᗘ࠶ࡿࡢ࠿ࢆ☜ㄆࡋࡓ㸬ࡉࡽ࡟㸪ᑠ㑅ᣲ༊࡟࠾࠸࡚ࡣㄪᰝࢹ࣮ࢱࢆ༢⣧࡟㞟ィࡍࡿࡢ࡛ࡣ࡞ࡃ㸪࣐࣮ࢣ ࢸ࢕ࣥࢢ࣭ࣜࢧ࣮ࢳ࡛ࡼࡃ౑ࢃࢀ࡚࠸ࡿண ᡭἲࢆ㐺⏝ࡍࡿࡇ࡜࡛㸪㑅ᣲ༊ࡈ࡜ࡢྛᨻඪࡢ㑅ᢥ☜⋡ࡢண  ࢆヨࡳࡓ㸬

Although online surveys are often used in market research, they are rarely used in an election setting.

This is because online surveys cover certain access panels, so the bias of respondents cannot be avoided.

However, the extent of prediction accuracy when an election survey is conducted online has not been sufficiently verified.

This paper focuses on the accuracy of election prediction by online surveys and the actual election announcement through news reports. Moreover, instead of simply summarizing the survey data, we attempted to predict the probability of voting for political parties in each constituency by applying prediction methods commonly used in market research.

㸯

㸰

㸱

㸲

㸳

㸴

㸵

㸬

㸬ࡣ ࡣࡌࡵ࡟

࢔ࢡࢭࢫࣃࢿࣝࢆ౑ࡗࡓࢿࢵࢺࣜࢧ࣮ࢳࡣ㸪᭷

ᶒ⪅ࢆ௦⾲ࡍࡿᢳฟࡀ࡛ࡁ࡞࠸ࡓࡵ㸪ୡㄽㄪᰝࡸ

㑅ᣲண ㄪᰝ࡟ࡣ౑࠼࡞࠸࡜ࡉࢀ࡚ࡁࡓ㸬ⴗཎࡣ

ࢿࢵࢺࣜࢧ࣮ࢳࢆほ ⿦⨨࡜ᤊ࠼㸪ࢿࢵࢺࣔࢽࢱ

࣮ࡢෆ㛶ᨭᣢ⋡࡟ࡣ

࡜ࡢ㛫࡟ࢫࢥ࢔ᕪࡀᏑᅾ ࡋ࡚࠸ࡓ࡜ࡋ࡚ࡶ㸪᫬⣔ิ࡛ぢࡓ࡜ࡁ࡟୧⪅ࡢᨭ ᣢ⋡ࡢኚ໬ࡣྠࡌᣲືࢆ♧ࡍࡇ࡜ࢆ᫂ࡽ࠿࡟ࡋࡓ 㸦ⴗཎ㸪^㸧 㸬ෆ㛶ᨭᣢ⋡࡟ࡘ࠸࡚

࡜࠶ࡿ⛬

ᗘࡢ┦㛵ࡀぢࡽࢀࡿࡢ࡛࠶ࢀࡤ㸪ᅜᨻ㑅ᣲ࡟࠾࠸

࡚ᨻඪྡ࡛ᢞ⚊ࡍࡿẚ౛༊ࡢண ࡟ࡣఱࡽ࠿ࡢᙧ

࡛㐺⏝࡛ࡁࡿྍ⬟ᛶࡀ኱࠸࡟࠶ࡾᚓࡿ㸬

ࡋ࠿ࡋ㸪⾗㆟㝔㑅ᣲ࡟ࡣᑠ㑅ᣲ༊࡛ࡢᢞ⚊ࡶ࠶

ࡿ㸬ᑠ㑅ᣲ༊ࡈ࡜࡟ೃ⿵⪅ࢆ᧦❧ࡍࡿᨻඪࡢ⤌ࡳ

ྜࢃࡏࡶ␗࡞ࡿ㸬ࡲࡓ㸪ᑠ㑅ᣲ༊࡜࠸࠺༢఩࡛ࡣᅇ

⟅⪅ࡢᒃఫᆅࡢ␒ᆅࡲุ࡛᫂ࡋ࡞ࡅࢀࡤ㸪ṇ☜࡞

㑅ᣲ༊ࢆ≉ᐃ࡛ࡁ࡞࠸㸬ࡑࡋ࡚㸪ࡍ࡭࡚ࡢᑠ㑅ᣲ༊

࡟ࣔࢽࢱ࣮ࡀᏑᅾࡍࡿ࡜ࡣ㝈ࡽ࡞࠸㸬ᑠ㑅ᣲ༊࡛

ࡶ୍ᐃࡢᶆᮏᩘࢆ☜ಖࡋࡼ࠺࡜ࡍࡿ㏻ᖖࡢࡸࡾ᪉

࡛ࡣࢿࢵࢺࣜࢧ࣮ࢳࡢᐇ᪋ࡣᅔ㞴ࢆᴟࡵࡿ㸬 㯮㜰࣭⫧๓࣭ⰱ㔝

ேࡢೃ⿵⪅ࡢ୰࠿ࡽ

ேࢆᢞ⚊ࡍࡿ࡜࠸࠺ᐇ㦂ࢆ⾜࠸㸪ᚓ⚊ࢩ࢙࢔ࢆ⏝

࠸࡚ఱேࡢೃ⿵⪅࡟⚊ࡀ㞟୰ࡍࡿࡢ࠿࡜࠸࠺ண  ࢩ࣑࣮ࣗࣞࢩࣙࣥࢆ⾜ࡗ࡚࠸ࡿ㸬ࡑࡇ࡛ᮏ◊✲࡟

࠾࠸࡚ࡶண ࢩ࣑࣮ࣗࣞࢩࣙࣥ࡜࠸࠺ᴫᛕࢆᑠ㑅 ᣲ༊ࡢᢞ⚊ண ࡟ࡶᣑᙇ࡛ࡁ࡞࠸࠿࡜⪃࠼ࡓ㸬࣐

࣮ࢣࢸ࢕ࣥࢢ࣭ࣜࢧ࣮ࢳ࡛ࡼࡃ⏝࠸ࡽࢀ࡚࠸ࡿ㑅 ᢥᐇ㦂࡜ከ㡯ࣟࢪࢫࢸ࢕ࢵࢡᅇᖐศᯒࢆ㑅ᣲண 

࡟㐺⏝ࡋ࡚㸪ᑠ㑅ᣲ༊ࡢᢞ⚊ඛࡢண ࡢᐇ⏝ྍ⬟

ᛶࢆ᳨ドࡍࡿ㸬

㸬

㸬ᐇ ᐇ㦂ㄪᰝࡢᐇ᪋ᴫせ

ᮏ◊✲࡛ࡣ ᖺ⛅ࡢ⾗㝔㑅ࢆࢣ࣮ࢫࢫࢱࢹ

࢕࡜ࡋ࡚ᢞ⚊๓ࡢ஦๓ㄪᰝ࡜ᢞ⚊ᚋࡢ஦ᚋㄪᰝࡢ ᅇ࡟ศࡅ࡚ᐇ᪋ࡋࡓ㸬ࡑࢀࡒࢀࡢㄪᰝᴫせࢆᅗ

⾲ ࡟♧ࡍ㸬

஦๓ㄪᰝ࡟࠾࠸࡚ࡣᨭᣢᨻඪࡸᢞ⚊ពྥ࡟㛵ࡍ

ࡿ㉁ၥ࡟ຍ࠼࡚㸪:ih ㄪᰝ⏬㠃ෆ࡛᝟ሗࢆ࿊♧ࡋ ࡓ࡜ࡁ࡟᭷ᶒ⪅ࡢᢞ⚊ពྥࢆㄪ࡭ࡿࡓࡵࡢ㑅ᢥ཯

ᛂᐇ㦂ࢆ⾜ࡗࡓ㸬ࡑࡋ࡚஦ᚋㄪᰝ࡛ࡣ㸪ᐇ㝿࡟ᢞ

⚊ࡋࡓᨻඪࡢ࡯࠿㸪ᢞ⚊ඛࢆ෩ᐃࡍࡿࡲ࡛ࡢᢞ⚊

ពྥࡢኚ໬ࡸ㑅ᣲ⤖ᯝࡢឤ᝿ࢆ㉁ၥࡋࡓ㸬

ᅗ⾲ 㻝䠊ᐇ㦂ㄪᰝ䛾ㄪᰝᴫせ㻌

㻌

হ৐৹ਪ হ৏৹ਪ

৹ਪু১ 崌嵛崧嵤崵崫崰৹ਪ 崌嵛崧嵤崵崫崰৹ਪ

৹ਪৎ਋ ফ া ঩਽ع ফ া ঩ଅ ফ া ঩াع ফ া ঩

স

৚௦঻ਯ য য

৹ਪৌ଴৉ୠ ৸ ব ৸ ব

ৌ଴঻૖੯ ੬੓ ୃ پযઠ৿ଙ峕峲峵સહ হ৐৹ਪ峘৚௦঻

৹ਪ৔ઍ

嵣 ੍੅৆ਇط਍೅৔ద੍੅

嵣 ಃ৮੹৭峘ଥਡ

嵣 ೦১੝ਫط଎ાઘੜઘطਉ৅峘ગ༎௮峢峘එ৊

嵣 ਺௠੔峘੎ଳඨ৯ق৭଱યطૻ୻યك 嵣 ಃ৮੹৭峘਺௠峕ষ岹岵

嵣 ৭଱ય峑峘৆ਇੌ়峅峕峲峵਺௠ਔ਱

嵣 ਺௠峁峉岹峔岮৆ਇ؜峨峉峙਺௠૭ચਙ峘岬峵৆ਇ 嵣 ৭଱ੲિ峘ੲਾ઀୹ৎ峘਺௠ਔ਱

嵣 ৚௦঻峕峲峵ଖਇ৮ఆਯ੒୳

嵣 ਺௠峘થ૮

嵣 ৭଱ય؜ૻ୻ય峘਺௠峁峉৆ਇ 嵣 ਺௠ਔ਱峘૗৲峘થ૮

嵣 ഊ岮ਢ岻峉৆ਇ؜ੂ峫峕਺௠峁峲岰峒峁峉৆ਇ 嵣 ৭଱੥ટ峘৮ఆਯ峘૎୳

3ROLF\ 5HVHDUFK 1R2FWREHU

Policy & Research No.15 (October 2018) 60

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㸬஦ ஦ᚋㄪᰝ࡟࠾ࡅࡿᢞ⚊ඛ

஦ᚋㄪᰝ࡛⫈ྲྀࡋࡓᢞ⚊ඛ࡜⾗㝔㑅ࡢᨻඪู⋓

ᚓ⚊ᩘࡢᐇ⦼࡜ࡢẚ㍑ࢆᅗ⾲ ࡟♧ࡍ㸬➨୍ඪ࡜

࡞ࡗࡓ⮬⏤Ẹ୺ඪࡢẚ౛༊࡛ࡢ๭ྜࡣ㑅ᣲ⤖ᯝ࡜

ࢿࢵࢺࣜࢧ࣮ࢳࡢ⤖ᯝࡀ࡯ࡰ୍⮴ࡋࡓ㸬ࡋ࠿ࡋ࡞

ࡀࡽ㸪ᑠ㑅ᣲ༊࡛ࡣ⣙ ࣏࢖ࣥࢺࡢᕪࡀ⏕ࡌ࡚࠸

ࡿ㸬ࡸࡣࡾᑠ㑅ᣲ༊ࡈ࡜࡟๭௜࡛ࡁ࡞࠸ࢿࢵࢺࣜ

ࢧ࣮ࢳ࡛ࡣᐇ㝿ࡢᚓ⚊⋡࡜ࡢ஋㞳ࡀ⏕ࡌࡸࡍ࠸㸬

ࡲࡓ㸪ᅗ⾲ ࡣࢿࢵࢺࣜࢧ࣮ࢳࡢẚ౛༊࡛ᢞ⚊

ࡋࡓᨻඪࢆᖺ௦ู࡟ࢡࣟࢫ㞟ィࡋࡓࡶࡢ࡛࠶ࡿ㸬 ᐇ㝿ࡢ⾗㆟㝔㑅࡛ࡣ㸪ᖺ௦ู࡟࡝ࡢᨻඪ࡟ᢞ⚊

ࡋࡓࡢ࠿ࡣุࡽ࡞࠸ࡀ㸪ࢿࢵࢺࣜࢧ࣮ࢳࡢ⤖ᯝ࠿

ࡽ᥎ᐹࡍࡿ࡜ⱝᖺᒙ࡯࡝⮬Ẹඪࢆᢞ⚊ࡋ࡚࠸ࡓྍ

⬟ᛶࡀ㧗࠸㸬

㑅ᣲ᝟ໃㄪᰝࡢሙྜ㸪5'' ࡛ࡣ౫㢗⪅࡟ࡣ㟁ヰ

ཱྀ࡛༠ຊࡋ࡚࠸ࡓࡔࡃࡓࡵ࡟㸪⫈ྲྀྍ⬟࡞㉁ၥᩘ

ࡣ㝈ࡽࢀࡿ㸬ࡋ࠿ࡶ㑅ᢥ⫥ࢆ⪥࡛⪺࠸ཱྀ࡚㢌࡛ᅇ

⟅࡛ࡁࡿࡼ࠺࡟ࡍࡿࡓࡵ࡟ࡣ㸪㑅ᢥ⫥ࡢᩘࡶไ㝈 ࡉࢀࡿࡔࢁ࠺ࡋ㸪㉁ၥᙧᘧࡶᢥ୍ᘧࡀ୰ᚰ࡜࡞ࡽ

ࡊࡿࢆᚓ࡞࠸ࡔࢁ࠺㸬

ࡇࡢⅬ㸪ࢿࢵࢺࣜࢧ࣮ࢳ࡛࠶ࢀࡤᅇ⟅⪅ࡣどぬ

ࡶ౑ࡗ࡚ᅇ⟅࡛ࡁࡿࡓࡵᢞ⚊ពྥࡔࡅ࡛࡞ࡃ㸪ྠ

᫬࡟ᅗ⾲ ࡟ࡶ♧ࡋࡓࡼ࠺࡞ᵝࠎ࡞㉁ၥࢆ㏣ຍࡍ

ࡿࡇ࡜ࡀ࡛ࡁࡿ㸬ᅗ⾲ ࡣ౛࡜ࡋ࡚ᖺ௦ูࡢࢡࣟ

ࢫ㞟ィࡢ⤖ᯝࢆ♧ࡋࡓࡀ㸪ᨻ⟇࡬ࡢ㈶ྠู࡟ࡶᢞ

⚊ඛࢆศᯒࡍࡿࡇ࡜ࡶྍ⬟࡛࠶ࡿ㸬

ᅗ⾲ 㻞䠊⾗㆟㝔㑅䛾ᐇ⦼䛸䝛䝑䝖䝸䝃䞊䝏䛾ẚ㍑㻌

ᅗ⾲ 㻟䠊ẚ౛༊䛷䛾ᖺ௦ูᢞ⚊ඛ㻌

ᙜ↛㸪≉ᐃࡢᨻඪࢆᨭᣢࡋ࡚࠸ࡿேࡣ㸪ࡑࡢᨭ ᣢࡍࡿᨻඪ࡬ᢞ⚊ࡍࡿேࡢ๭ྜࡀ᭱ࡶከ࠸ࡇ࡜ࡣ ᐜ᫆࡟᝿ീ࡛ࡁࡿࡀ㸪ࡍ࡭࡚ࡢேࡀᨭᣢᨻඪ࡟ᢞ

⚊ࡍࡿࢃࡅ࡛ࡣ࡞࠸㸬

ᖺࡢ⾗㆟㝔㑅ࡣ㸪බ♧ᮇ㛫୰࡟㔝ඪ࡟ᑐࡍ

ࡿᮇᚅࡢ㧗ࡲࡾ࡜ࡑࡢᛴⴠࡢኚ໬ࡀ኱ࡁ࠸㑅ᣲ࡛

࠶ࡗࡓ㸬ᅗ⾲

ࡣ㸪ᐇ㝿࡟ᢞ⚊ࡋࡓᨻඪࡸೃ⿵⪅

ࢆᙜึ࠿ࡽỴࡵ࡚࠸ࡓࡢ࠿࡝࠺࠿࡟ࡘ࠸࡚ᑜࡡࡓ

⤖ᯝ࡛࠶ࡿ㸬ึࡵ࠿ࡽỴࡵ࡚࠸ࡓᨻඪࡸೃ⿵⪅࡟

ᢞ⚊ࡋࡓேࡢ๭ྜࡣ୚ඪᨭᣢ⪅࡛

⪅࡛

ࡣ

ࡃࡢ⚊ࡢ⾜᪉ࡀᙸ᚞ࡗ࡚࠸ࡓࡇ࡜ࢆ♧ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿ㸬

ࡑࡢືࡁࢆㄪᰝ࡟ࡼࡗ࡚࡜ࡽ࠼ࡓ⤖ᯝࡀᅗ⾲

࡛࠶ࡿ㸬஦๓ㄪᰝ࡛⪺࠸ࡓᨭᣢᨻඪ࡜ᢞ⚊ணᐃ ඛ㸪஦ᚋㄪᰝ࡛⪺࠸ࡓᐇ㝿ࡢᢞ⚊ඛ࡜ᢞ⚊┤๓ࡢ ᢞ⚊ពྥࡢ⛣ࡾኚࢃࡾࢆ♧ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿ㸬↓ඪὴᒙࡢ

࠺ࡕ㸪᭱ึ࡟❧᠇Ẹ୺ඪ࡬ࡢᢞ⚊ពྥࢆ♧ࡋࡓே

ࡢከࡃࡣ㏞࠸࡞ࡀࡽࡶ❧᠇Ẹ୺ඪ࡟ᢞ⚊ࡋࡓࡀ㸪

᭱ึ࡟ᕼᮃࡢඪ࡟ᢞ⚊ពྥࢆ♧ࡋࡓேࡢ࡯࡜ࢇ࡝

ࡣ௚ඪ࡟ᢞ⚊ࡋ࡚࠸ࡓࡇ࡜ࡀࢃ࠿ࡗࡓ㸬

ᅗ⾲ 㻠䠊ᨭᣢᨻඪู䛻䜏䛯ᢞ⚊ពྥ䛾ኚ㑄 㻌

㻌

ᅗ⾲ 㻡䠊ᨭᣢᨻඪู䛻䜏䛯ᢞ⚊ពྥ䛾ኚ㑄 㻌

੍੅৆ਇ ਈੂ峘਺௠ਔ਱ ઉ৐峘਺௠ਔ਱ ৰ੠峘਺௠੔

3ROLF\ 5HVHDUFK 1R2FWREHU

Policy & Research No.15 (October 2018) 62

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㸬㑅ᣲ᝟ໃሗ ሗ㐨ࡢ ࡢ࢔ ࢔ࢼ࢘ࣥࢫ࣓ࣥࢺຠᯝࡢ ࡢศ ศᯒ ᪂⪺ࡸࢸࣞࣅ࡞࡝ࡢሗ㐨ᶵ㛵ࡀ㑅ᣲ᝟ໃࢆఏ࠼

ࡿࡇ࡜࡟ࡼࡗ࡚㸪᭷ᶒ⪅ࡢᢞ⚊⾜ື࡟ᙳ㡪ࡀཬࡪ

⌧㇟ࢆ㸪 ࠕ࢔ࢼ࢘ࣥࢫ࣓ࣥࢺຠᯝࠖ࡜ゝ࠺㸬ࡲࡓ ᚰ⌮Ꮫ࡛ࡣከࡃࡢேࡀᨭᣢࡍࡿೃ⿵⪅࡛࠶ࢀࡤ㛫 㐪࠸࡞࠸ࡔࢁ࠺࡜ᛮ࠸㸪຾ࡕ㤿࡟஌ࡿ㸦ࡑࡢೃ⿵

⪅࡟ᢞ⚊ࡍࡿ㸧⾜ືࢆྲྀࡿࡇ࡜ࢆࠕࣂࣥࢻ࣡ࢦࣥ

ຠᯝࠖ࡜࿧ࢇ࡛࠸ࡿ㸬㏫࡟୙฼࡞≧ἣ࡟࠶ࡿೃ⿵

⪅ࢆᛂ᥼ࡋࡓࡃ࡞ࡿẼᣢࡕࢆࠕ࢔ࣥࢲ࣮ࢻࢵࢡຠ

ᯝࠖ࡜࿧ࢇ࡛࠸ࡿ㸬

බ♧ᮇ㛫୰࡟ࡣከࡃࡢሗ㐨ᶵ㛵࡟ࡼࡿ⋓ᚓ㆟ᖍ

ᩘࡢண᝿ࡀሗ㐨ࡉࢀࡿࡀ㸪ࡇ࠺ࡋࡓ㆟ᖍᩘண᝿ࡢ

᝟ሗࡣ㸪୚㔝ඪࡢ᝟ໃ࡟ࡼࡗ࡚᭷ᶒ⪅ࡢᢞ⚊⾜ື

࡟࡝ࡢࡼ࠺࡞ᙳ㡪ࢆ୚࠼࡚࠸ࡿࡢࡔࢁ࠺࠿㸬

௒ᅇࡢᐇ㦂࡛ࡣ୚ඪࡢ㆟ᖍᩘࡀ㹙 ศࡢ ௨ୖ

㸭 ศࡢ ࣛ࢖ࣥ㸭㐣༙ᩘ࠿ࡽ ศࡢ ࡢ㛫㸭㐣

༙ᩘࣛ࢖ࣥ㸭㐣༙ᩘ๭ࢀ㹛ࡢ㸳ࡘࡢ௬᝿᮲௳ࢆタ ᐃࡋࡓ㸬ࡑࡋ࡚㸪ᅗ⾲

࡟♧ࡍࡼ࠺࡞ᙧ࡛ྛ௬᝿

᮲௳࡟࠾ࡅࡿᢞ⚊ពྥࢆ㉁ၥࡋࡓ㸬

୚ඪࡢ⋓ᚓ㆟ᖍᩘࡀࠕ㐣༙ᩘ๭ࢀࠖ࡜ண᝿ࡉࢀ

ࡓ࡜ࡁࡣ㸪୚ඪ࡬ࡢᢞ⚊ពྥࡣ᭱ࡶ㧗ࡃ

࠶ࡗࡓ㸬ࡑࡋ࡚㸪 ࠕ ศࡢ ௨ୖࠖࡢ࡜ࡁ࡟୚ඪ࡬

ࡢᢞ⚊ពྥࡀ᭱ࡶపࡃ

࡟୚ඪࡀ⋓ᚓࡍࡿண᝿㆟ᖍᩘࡀቑ࠼ࢀࡤ㸪ࡑࢀࢆ

ጉࡆࡿ᪉ྥ࡟స⏝ࡍࡿᙧ࡛㸪ẚ౛༊ࡢᢞ⚊ពྥࡣ ኚືࡍࡿࡇ࡜ࡀ☜ㄆࡉࢀࡓᅗ⾲

ḟ࡟㸪ᨭᣢᨻඪู࡟㆟ᖍᩘண᝿ࡢ᝟ሗᥦ౪ࢆ⾜

ࡗࡓ࡜ࡁ㸪ᢞ⚊ពྥࡀ࡝࠺ኚࢃࡿ࠿ࢆ♧ࡋࡓࡶࡢ ࡀᅗ⾲ ࡛࠶ࡿ㸬㔝ඪᨭᣢ⪅ࡣ㑅ᣲ᝟ໃࡢ᝟ሗᥦ ౪ࡀ࠶ࡗ࡚ࡶᢞ⚊ពྥࡣ࡯࡜ࢇ࡝ኚࢃࡽ࡞࠸ࡀ㸪 ᨭᣢᨻඪࡀ࡞࠸ேࡣ㑅ᣲ᝟ໃࡢᙳ㡪ࢆཷࡅࡸࡍ࠸

ࡇ࡜ࡀศ࠿ࡿ㸬

ᅗ⾲ 㻢䠊ㄪᰝ⏬㠃ෆ䛷䛾᝟ሗᥦ౪䛾౛

ᅗ⾲㻣䠊㆟ᖍᩘண᝿䛾᝟ሗᥦ౪䛻䜘䜛ᢞ⚊ពྥ䛾ኚ໬

ᅗ⾲ 㻤䠊㆟ᖍᩘண᝿䛾᝟ሗᥦ౪䛻䜘䜛ᢞ⚊ពྥ䛾ᨭᣢᨻඪ㛫ẚ㍑㻌

㸬

㸬ᑠ㑅ᣲ༊࡟࠾ࡅࡿ㑅ᢥ⾜ືᐇ㦂࡜ண ࣔࢹࣝ

ࡢ ࡢᵓ⠏

࣐࣮ࢣࢸ࢕ࣥࢢ࣭ࣜࢧ࣮ࢳ࡛ࡣ᪂ၟရࡢࢩ࢙࢔

ண ࢆࡍࡿࡓࡵ࡟㸪ᗘࠎࢥࣥࢪࣙ࢖ࣥࢺศᯒ࡜࿧

ࡤࢀࡿ㑅ᢥ⾜ືᐇ㦂ࢆ⾜࠺ࡇ࡜ࡀ࠶ࡿ㸬ࡇࢀࡣ」

ᩘࡢၟရࢆ୪࡭࡚࿊♧ࡋ࡚㸪᮲௳ࢆኚ࠼ࡓ࡜ࡁ࡟

ᾘ㈝⪅ࡣఱࢆ㑅ᢥࡍࡿࡢ࠿࡜࠸࠺཯ᛂࢆࡳࡿࡶࡢ

࡛࠶ࡿ㸬ᮏ◊✲࡛ࡣ㸪ࡇࡢᡭἲࢆᑠ㑅ᣲ༊࡟࠾ࡅࡿ

ྛᨻඪࡢᚓ⚊ᩘࡢࢩ࢙࢔ண ࡟㐺⏝ࡋ࡚ࡳࡓ㸬 ᐇ㝿ࡢ⾗㆟㝔㑅ᣲ࡛ࡣ㸪ᑠ㑅ᣲ༊࡛ೃ⿵⪅ࢆ᧦

❧ࡍࡿᨻඪࡢ⤌ࡳྜࢃࡏࡣᩘከࡃ࠶ࡿ㸬ࡍ࡭࡚ࡢ

❧ೃ⿵⪅㸦ᨻඪ㸧ࣃࢱ࣮࡛ࣥࡢᢞ⚊ពྥࢆ₃ࢀ࡞ࡃ

㉁ၥࡍࡿࡇ࡜ࡣ㞴ࡋ࠸㸬

ᮏ᮶࡞ࡽࡤᐇ㦂ィ⏬ἲࢆ⏝࠸࡚ศᯒ࡟ᚲせ࡞᭱

ప㝈ࡢ⤌ࡳྜࢃࡏᩘࢆ⟬ฟࡍࡿࢃࡅࡔࡀ㸪௒ᅇࡣ ண ศᯒࡢྍ⬟ᛶࢆ᥈ࡿࡓࡵࡢᐇ㦂࡜࠸࠺఩⨨௜

ࡅ࡜ࡋ࡚㸪⡆᫆ⓗ࡞ㄪᰝタィࢆ⾜ࡗࡓ㸬

᭱ࡶከࡃࡢᑠ㑅ᣲ༊࡟ೃ⿵⪅ࢆ᧦❧ࡋ࡚࠸ࡓ⮬

Ẹඪ࡜㸪࡝ࡢᨻඪ࡟ࡶᒓࡉ࡞࠸↓ᡤᒓࡢೃ⿵⪅ࢆ

㑅ᢥ⫥࡜ࡋ࡚ᚲࡎ⾲♧ࡋࡓ㸬ࡉࡽ࡟㸪୺࡞㔝ඪࡢ࠺

ࡕ㸪ೃ⿵⪅ࡢ᧦❧ࡢ㝿࡟ㄪᩚࢆ⾜ࡗ࡚࠸ࡓࠕᕼᮃࡢ ඪe᪥ᮏ⥔᪂ࡢ఍ࠖ ࠕ❧᠇Ẹ୺ඪeඹ⏘ඪࠖࡣྠ୍ࡢ 㑅ᣲ༊ෆ࡟㔜」ࡋ࡚❧ೃ⿵ࡋ࡞࠸࡜௬ᐃࡋࡓ㸬ࡇ ࡢࡼ࠺࡞௬ᐃࢆタࡅࡿ࡜㸪ᅗ⾲ ࡢࡼ࠺࡞㸲ࡘࡢ 㑅ᢥ⫥࡟㞟⣙ࡍࡿࡇ࡜ࡀ࡛ࡁࡿ㸬

ᅗ⾲ 㻥䠊㑅ᢥᐇ㦂䛻⏝䛔䛯㑅ᢥ⫥䛾⤌䜏ྜ䜟䛫㻌

৭උ࿔؟ঽড়ਇ ଞ峕਀ં

৭උ࿔؟৙ਇڭ ൌ஦峘ਇ峨峉峙঩ম೐ৗ峘ভ ৭උ࿔؟৙ਇڮ য়೦ড়਌ਇ峨峉峙ુਓਇ ৭උ࿔؟૮ਚര ଞ峕਀ં

ࡑࡋ࡚㸪ࡍ࡭࡚ࡢᅇ⟅⪅࡟ᑐࡋ࡚㔝ඪ㸯࡜㔝ඪ ࡢ㑅ᢥ⫥ࢆ⤌ࡳྜࢃࡏࡓ㸲ࡘࡢ㉁ၥࢆࣛࣥࢲ࣒࡞

㡰ᗎ࡛

ㄪᰝ⏬㠃࡟࿊♧ࡋࡓ࡜ࡁࡢᢥ୍ᘧࡢ㑅 ᢥᐇ㦂ࢆᐇ᪋ࡋࡓ㸬

ᨻඪࡀᥖࡆ࡚࠸ࡿᨻ⟇㸪ಖᏲ⣔࣭ࣜ࣋ࣛࣝ⣔࡜

࠸ࡗࡓྛᨻඪࡢ≉ᚩࢆᵓᡂࡍࡿࢲ࣑࣮ኚᩘࢆタᐃ ࡋ㸪ከ㡯ࣟࢪࢫࢸ࢕ࢵࢡᅇᖐศᯒ࡟ࡼࡾࣃ࣓࣮ࣛ

ࢱࡢ᥎ᐃࢆ⾜ࡗࡓ⤖ᯝࢆᅗ⾲ ࡟♧ࡍ㸬

౛࠼ࡤࠕ⮬Ẹඪࠖࡢຠ⏝್ࡣ͆୚ඪࢲ࣑࣮͇

࡜͆ಖᏲࢲ࣑࣮͇ࡢྜ⟬್ࡀ㸪 ࠕᕼᮃࡢඪ࡛ࠖ࠶

ࢀࡤ͆ಖᏲࢲ࣑࣮͇࡜͆ᕼᮃࢲ࣑࣮͇ࡢྜ⟬್

ࡀ㸪 ࠕ᪥ᮏ⥔᪂ࡢ఍࡛ࠖ࠶ࢀࡤ͆ಖᏲࢲ࣑࣮͇ࡢ

ຠ⏝್ࡀ♧ࡍࡶࡢ࡜タᐃࡋࡓ㸬ࡇࡢࡓࡵ௒ᅇࡢᐇ 㦂࡛ࡣ㑅ᢥ⫥࡜ࡋ࡚ࡣ

ࡘࡋ࠿タࡅ࡞࠿ࡗࡓࡀ㸪 㸴ࡘࡢᨻඪࡢ㑅ࡤࢀࡸࡍࡉࢆᩘ್໬ࡍࡿࡇ࡜ࡀ࡛

ࡁࡓ㸬

3ROLF\ 5HVHDUFK 1R2FWREHU

Policy & Research No.15 (October 2018) 64

ࡋ࠿ࡋ࡞ࡀࡽ㸪඲ᅇ⟅⪅ࡢ᥎ᐃ⤖ᯝࢆ⏝࠸࡚ࡋ

ࡲ࠺࡜㸪ࢿࢵࢺࣜࢧ࣮ࢳᅛ᭷ࡢࣃࢿࣝࣂ࢖࢔ࢫࡸ

ྛ㑅ᣲ༊ᅛ᭷ࡢᨻඪᨭᣢ⋡࡜ࡢ஋㞳ࡀ⏕ࡌ࡚ࡋࡲ

࠺ྍ⬟ᛶࡀ᝿ᐃࡉࢀࡿ㸬

ࡑࡋ࡚㸪ண ࡢ㝿࡟ᨻඪᨭᣢ⋡ࡢㄪᩚࡀ࡛ࡁࡿ

ࡼ࠺࡟ᅇ⟅⪅ࢆᨭᣢᨻඪู࡟ᅇ⟅⪅ࢆࢢ࣮ࣝࣆࣥ

ࢢࡋ࡚㸪⩌ࡈ࡜࡟ࣃ࣓࣮ࣛࢱ᥎ᐃࢆ⾜ࡗࡓ㸦ᅗ⾲

㸧

㸬ࡇࡢ⤖ᯝ㸪୚ඪࢲ࣑࣮

ࡢຠ⏝್ࡣ୚ඪᨭ ᣢᒙ࡛

࡜኱ࡁࡃ㸪㔝ඪᨭᣢᒙ࡛

࡜ᑠ ࡉࡃ࡞ࡗ࡚࠸ࡿ㸬ࡇࡢࡼ࠺࡟ᨭᣢᨻඪู࡟᥎ᐃࡍ

ࡿࡇ࡜࡛㸪୚ඪᨭᣢᒙ࡟࠾࠸࡚ࡣ୚ඪࡀ㑅ࡤࢀࡸ

ࡍࡃ㸪㔝ඪᨭᣢᒙ࡟࠾࠸࡚ࡣ୚ඪࡀ㑅ࡤࢀ࡟ࡃ࠸

ᵓ㐀ࢆண ࣔࢹࣝࡢ୰࡟཯ᫎࡍࡿࡇ࡜ࡀ࡛ࡁࡿ㸬 ࡑࡋ࡚㸪ྛᨻඪࡀᢞ⚊ࡉࢀࡿ㑅ᢥ☜⋡ࡣḟᘧ࡟

ࡼࡗ࡚⟬ฟࡍࡿࡇ࡜ࡀ࡛ࡁࡿ㸬

” ൌ ൫ߚ_௜൅ ߚ_௝൯ σ ‡š’ሺߚ_௜൅ ߚ_௝ሻ

ᅗ⾲ 㻝㻜䠊㑅ᢥ⾜ືᐇ㦂䛾᥎ᐃ⤖ᯝ䠄඲ᅇ⟅⪅䠅㻌

Estimate Std. Error t-value Signif.

୚ඪ䝎 䝭 䞊

ಖᏲ䝎 䝭 䞊

ᕼᮃ䝎 䝭 䞊

❧Ẹ䝎 䝭 䞊

䛭 䛾 ௚ 䝎 䝭 䞊

ߚ_ହ ^{0.535 0.044} 12.110 ***

Signif. codes: p-value < ¶· 0.¶· 0.¶·

Log-Likelihood: -14142

ࡉࡽ࡟ᢞ⚊࡟ᑐࡍࡿពᛮࡢ☜ᗘࢆ⪃៖ࡍࡿࡓࡵ

࡟㸪ᨭᣢᨻඪࡈ࡜ࡢᢞ⚊ពྥ⋡ࢆ⪃៖ࡋࡓ࢚࢘࢖

ࢺࢆ஌ࡌࡿࡇ࡜࡟ࡼࡗ࡚㸪඲య࡜ࡋ࡚ྛᨻඪࡀᢞ

⚊ࡉࢀࡿ☜⋡ࢆண ࡋࡓࡶࡢࡀᅗ⾲

࡛࠶ࡿ㸬

ᅗ⾲ 㻝㻝䠊㑅ᢥ⾜ືᐇ㦂䛾᥎ᐃ⤖ᯝ䠄ᨭᣢᨻඪู䠅㻌

୚ඪᨭᣢᒙ 㔝ඪᨭᣢᒙ ↓ඪὴᒙ

Estimate t-value Signif. Estimate t-value Signif. Estimate t-value Signif.

୚ ඪ 䝎 䝭 䞊

ಖ Ᏺ 䝎 䝭 䞊

ᕼ ᮃ 䝎 䝭 䞊

❧ Ẹ 䝎 䝭 䞊

䛭 䛾 ௚ 䝎 䝭 䞊

Log-Likelihood: -1302.6 Log-Likelihood: -3605.2 Log-Likelihood: -6083.4

ᅗ⾲ 㻝㻞䠊ᨭᣢᨻඪ䜢⪃៖䛧䛯㑅ᢥᐇ㦂䛻ᇶ䛵䛟ᢞ⚊ඛண 㻌 㻌 㻌 㻌 㻌 㻌 ᅗ⾲ 㻝㻟䠊㑅ᢥᐇ㦂䛻ᇶ䛵䛟ᢞ⚊ඛண 䝅䜵䜰㻌

ଖਇ੍੅ ৙ਇ੍੅ ૮ਇୣ ੑ Qਯ

਺௠ਔ਱૨

崎崐崌崰

ঽড়ਇ

ൌ஦峘ਇ

೐ৗ峘ভ

য়೦ড়਌ਇ

ુਓਇ

㸬

㸬ᑠ㑅ᣲ༊࡟ ࡟࠾ࡅࡿண ண ࢩ࣑࣮ࣗࣞࢩࣙࣥ

ண ࣔࢹࣝࡣྛᨻඪࡢຠ⏝್ࡢྜᡂ್ࢆ⏝࠸࡚

┦ᑐẚ㍑ࢆ⾜࠸㸪㑅ᢥ☜⋡ࢆ⟬ฟࡍࡿࡶࡢ࡛࠶

ࡿ㸬ࡇࡢ࡜ࡁ௵ពࡢᨻඪࢆ㑅ᐃࡋ࡚㸪ࡑࡢᨻඪࡢ

ຠ⏝್ࢆẚ㍑ࡍࢀࡤ㸪ࡑࢀࡒࢀࡢᨻඪࡢ㑅ᢥ☜⋡

ࢆ⟬ฟࡍࡿࡇ࡜ࡀ࡛ࡁࡿ㸬

ㄪᰝ࡛ࡣᅗ⾲ ࡟♧ࡋࡓ㸲ࡘࡢᨻඪࡢ⤌ࡳྜࢃ

ࡏࡢୗ࡛ࡢᅇ⟅⪅ࡢᢞ⚊⾜ືࢆ෌⌧ࡍࡿࡼ࠺࡟ᵓ

⠏ࡋࡓᩘ⌮ࣔࢹ࡛ࣝ࠶ࡿࡀ㸪㉁ၥࡋ࡚࠸࡞࠸ᨻඪ ࡢ⤌ࡳྜࢃࡏ࡛ࡶ㑅ᢥ☜⋡ࢆண ྍ⬟࡛࠶ࡿ㸬

᭷ᶒ⪅ࡢᨭᣢᨻඪࡢ๭ྜཬࡧᢞ⚊ពྥࡢ๭ྜ

ࡣ㸪ᑠ㑅ᣲ༊࡟㹙⮬Ẹඪ࣭❧᠇Ẹ୺ඪ࣭↓ᡤᒓ㹛 ࡢ㸱ೃ⿵⪅ࡀ࠸ࡓሙྜ㸪⮬Ẹඪ

`㸪↓ᡤᒓ`࡜࡞ࡗࡓ㸬ࡲࡓ㹙⮬Ẹඪ࣭ᕼᮃࡢ

ඪ࣭❧᠇Ẹ୺ඪ࣭ඹ⏘ඪ࣭↓ᡤᒓ㹛ࡢ

ೃ⿵⪅ࡀ

࠸ࡓሙྜ㸪⮬Ẹඪ

୺ඪ

ࡇࢀࡽࡣ࠶ࡃࡲ࡛ࢿࢵࢺࣜࢧ࣮ࢳࡢᅇ⟅⪅ࡀฟ

⌧ࡋࡓᨻඪᨭᣢ⋡ࢆ࣮࣋ࢫ࡟ࡋ࡚ண ࡋࡓࡶࡢ࡛

࠶ࡿࡀ㸪ᐇ㝿ࡢᑠ㑅ᣲ༊࡛㐺⏝ࡍࡿ㝿࡟ࡣ㸪ࡑࡢ ᆅᇦᅛ᭷ࡢ≧ἣࢆ⪃៖ࡍࡿᚲせࡀ࠶ࡿ㸬ࡲࡓ㸪᭷

ᶒ⪅ࡣᨻඪࡔࡅุ࡛᩿ࡍࡿࡢ࡛ࡣ࡞ࡃ㸪ೃ⿵⪅ࡢ

⤒Ṕࡸᙜ㑅ᅇᩘ࡞࡝ࡶᙳ㡪ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࡇ࡜ࡀ᝿ᐃࡉ

ࢀࡿ㸬

㸬

㸬ᮏ ᮏ◊✲ࡢᡂᯝ࡜ㄢ ㄢ㢟

ࢿࢵࢺࣜࢧ࣮ࢳࡀ

ࡢ⨨᥮ࡣ㞴ࡋ࠸ࡇ࡜ࡣ஦ᐇ࡛࠶ࡿ㸬ࡑࢀࢆཷࡅධ

ࢀࡘࡘࡶ㸪ᮏ◊✲࡟࠾࠸࡚ࡣ㸪

ㄪᰝ⏬㠃ࡢ㑅ᢥ

཯ᛂᐇ㦂ࡢ⤖ᯝ࠿ࡽண ࣔࢹࣝࢆᵓ⠏ࡍࡿࡇ࡜࡛㸪 ᵝࠎ࡞ᨻඪࡢ⤌ࡳྜࢃࡏࢆタᐃࡋࡓ࡜ࡁࡢᑠ㑅ᣲ

༊ࡢᢞ⚊ඛࢆண ࡍࡿࡇ࡜ࡀ࡛ࡁࡓ㸬

ࡋ࠿ࡋ࡞ࡀࡽ㸪ࡲࡔᐇ㝿ࡢᑠ㑅ᣲ༊࡛ࡢண ⤖ ᯝ࡜⾗㆟㝔㑅ࡢᐇ⦼࡜ࡢẚ㍑᳨ドࡣ࡛ࡁ࡚࠸࡞࠸㸬

௒ᚋࡢㄢ㢟࡜ࡋ࡚ࡣ㸪ண ࣔࢹࣝࡢጇᙜᛶࡢ᳨ド ࡢ࡯࠿㸪ᨻඪᩘࢆᣑᙇࡋࡓ࡜ࡁࡢᐇ㦂ィ⏬࡟ᇶ࡙

࠸ࡓ㑅ᢥ཯ᛂᐇ㦂ࡢヨ⾜ࡸᑠ㑅ᣲ༊ࡀᣢࡘᅛ᭷ࡢ

≉ᛶࡢ⪃៖࡞࡝㸪 ࠕண ࠖ࡜ࡋ࡚ࡢ⤒㦂್ࢆ✚ࡳ㔜 ࡡ࡚࠸ࡃࡇ࡜ࡀ⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡿ㸬

ᅗ⾲ 㻝㻠䠊௬᝿㑅ᣲ༊䛻䛚䛡䜛ᢞ⚊⋡ண ⤖ᯝ

ཧ

ཧ⪃ᩥ⊩

ⴗ

ⴗཎ㞞அ㻔㻞㻜㻝㻡㻕㻚㻌䜲䞁䝍䞊䝛䝑䝖ㄪᰝ䛻䜘䜛ୡㄽほ 䛾 ヨ䜏䠉䛂✵Ẽ䛃䛾ኚ໬䜢ヲ⣽䞉㎿㏿䛻ᤊ䛘䜛䛯䜑䛾Ⓨ

᝿䛸ᐇ㊶䠉䠈➨

㻡

㻡㻝㻙㻡㻤㻚㻌

⫧

⫧๓ὒ୍⦅ⴭ㻌 㻔㻞㻜㻝㻢㻕㻚ᐇ㦂ᨻ἞Ꮫ㻘ວⲡ᭩ᡣ

㻘㻌㻝㻝㻡㻙㻝㻟㻡㻚㻌

㯮㜰೺࿃䞉⫧๓ὒ୍䞉ⰱ㔝⍆⨾㻔㻞㻜㻝㻠㻕㻌㻚㻌ᐇ㦂ᐊᐇ㦂䛻䜘 䜛

㻹㼦㻝

㻟㻜㻔㻝㻕㻌

㻝㻢㻙㻟㻜㻚㻌

㇂

㇂ཱྀᑦᏊ㻔㻞㻜㻝㻠㻕㻚㻌ᨻ἞Ꮫ䛻䛚䛡䜛ᐇ㦂◊✲䇷ᴫせ䛸ᒎ ᮃ䇷䠈㑅ᣲ◊✲㻘㻌㻟

㻟㻜㻔㻝㻕㻘㻌㻡㻙㻥㻚㻌

3ROLF\ 5HVHDUFK 1R2FWREHU

Policy & Research No.15 (October 2018) 66