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[論説] 歴史津波からみた若狭湾岸の津波の挙動

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(1)ᱧผ࿾㔡㩷 ╙ 㪉㪌 ภ㩿㪉㪇㪈㪇㪀㩷㪎㪌㪄㪏㪇 㗁㩷 ฃઃᣣ㩷 㪉㪇㪇㪐㪆㪈㪉㪆㪇㪈㪃㩷 ฃℂᣣ㩷 㪉㪇㪈㪇㪆㪇㪍㪆㪈㪏㩷. ᱧผᵤᵄ䈎䉌䉂䈢⧯⁜ḧጯ䈱ᵤᵄ䈱᜼േ ⠀㠽㩷 ᓼᄥ㇢*. Behavior of Tsunamis in the Wakasa Bay, the Japan Sea, estimated from Historical Documents Tokutaro HATORI Suehiro 2-3-13, Kawaguchi, Saitama 332-0006 Japan Tsunamis generated by earthquakes along the east margin of the Japan Sea (e.g. 1964 Niigata earthquake, 1983 Nihonkai-Chubu earthquake, and the 1993 SW. Hokkaido earthquake), and near field earthquakes have been recorded along the Wakasa Bay. Refraction diagrams of the tsunamis in 1964, 1983 and 1993 indicate small refraction effect of the bay. Typical run-up heights observed along the bay by these tsunamis were 1-2 m, and 3.5 m at Obase, the west of the Wakasa Bay. The 1741 Oshima-Oki (SW. Hokkaido) tsunami also recorded run-up heights of 3.5 m, in Obase and then damaged 28 houses, The timing of the maximum wave height of the tsunami in 1964 (5.5 hours after the initial arrival at Tsuruga, the east of the bay) indicates the excitation of the of the seiche, whose period was about 20 min. The tsunami accompanying with the 1662 Ohmi-Wakasa earthquake was recorded at the Mikata-Goko Lake side near Obama. For the long-term tsunami hazard, it is indispensable to take precautions against the seismic activities around Wakasa Bay. Keywords: Tsunami activity, Tsunami heights, Refraction effect, Seiche of bays. §1. 䈲䈛䉄䈮 ᣣᧄᶏ᧲✼䈮⊒↢䈜䉎ᵤᵄ䈲䋬વ᠞䈱ዮ᛬૞↪䈪 ⢻⊓ඨፉ䉇㓝ጘ䊶ፉᩮඨፉ䈮䉣䊈䊦䉩䊷䈏㓸䉁䉍䋬䈚 䈳䈚䈳ᵤᵄἴኂ䉕䉅䈢䉌䈚䈢䋨ㇺม䋬1987; ⠀㠽䋬 1994a䋬1999䋩䋮䊥䉝䉴ᑼᶏጯ䈱⧯⁜ᴪጯၞ䈪䈲䋬1983 ᐕᣣᧄᶏਛㇱ࿾㔡䉇 1993 ᐕർᶏ㆏ධ⷏ᴒ࿾㔡䈮઻䈉 ᵤᵄ䈪䋬ᶐ᳓ኅደ䉇Ṫ⦁䈱ᵹᄬⵍኂ䈏಴䈩䈇䉎䋨᳇⽎ ᐡ䋬1984䋬1995䋩䋮ᱧผᵤᵄ䈮䉋䉎ⵍἴ䉅䈅䉎䋮䉁䈢䋬⧯ ⁜ḧ๟ㄝ䈪⊒↢䈚䈢ㄭ࿾࿾㔡ᵤᵄ䈱⸥㍳䈫વᛚ䈏䈅 䉎䋨଀䈋䈳䋬ዊ᧻ේ䊶ઁ䋬1999䋩䋮 ḧጯၞ䈱ᵤᵄ᜼േ䈲䈅䉁䉍ᬌ⸛䈘䉏䈢䈖䈫䈏䈭䈒䋬ㄭ ᐕ⥰㢬ḧ䈱࿕᦭๟ᦼ䈱䉲䊚䊠䊧䊷䉲䊢䊮⸃ᨆ䈎䉌䋬ᝄ േ䊝䊷䊄䈏⼏⺰䈘䉏䈢䋨⨹੗䊶ㇺม䋬1998䋩䋮䉁䈢䋬 ⍹ ᯅ䊶ේ↰䋨2006䋩䈲⧯⁜ḧർᣇᴒ䈮ᵄḮ䊝䊂䊦䉕ᗐቯ 䈚䋬ᴪጯၞ䈪ᵄ㜞䈏 2-3 䌭䈱㜞䈘䈮䈭䉎䈫ផቯ䈚䈢䋮ᧄ Ⓜ䈪䈲䋬⧯⁜ḧጯ䈱ᵤᵄ⸥㍳䉕෼㓸ᢛℂ䈚䋬વ᠞䈱ዮ ᛬ലᨐ䉇ḧ䉶䉟䉲䊠䈱㑐ㅪ䈭䈬䋬ᵤᵄᵄ㜞䉕⋧੕䈮Ყ セ䈚䈩⠨ኤ䈜䉎䋮 §2䋮 ᵤᵄ䈱᭎ᴫ 䉁䈝䋬ᣣᧄᶏ᧲✼䈮⊒↢䈚䈢 1964 ᐕᣂẟ࿾㔡ᵤᵄ 䋨࿾㔡䈱䊙䉫䊆䉼䊠䊷䊄䌍7.5䋬ᵤᵄ䊙䉫䊆䉼䊠䊷䊄䌭 = 2䋩䋬1983 ᐕᣣᧄᶏਛㇱ࿾㔡ᵤᵄ䋨䌍7.7䋬䌭 = 3䋩䈍 *. 䉋䈶 1993 ᐕർᶏ㆏ධ⷏ᴒ࿾㔡ᵤᵄ䋨䌍7.8䋬䌭 = 3䋩䈮 䉋䉎⧯⁜ḧጯ䈱᭎ᴫ䉕એਅ䈮ㅀ䈼䉎䋮䈭䈍䋬࿾㔡䊙䉫 䊆䉼䊠䊷䊄䈲᳇⽎ᐡ䈮䉋䉎䋮ᵤᵄ䊙䉫䊆䉼䊠䊷䊄䈲╩ ⠪䈱⸃ᨆ䋨⠀㠽䋬1994b 䈭䈬䋩䈮䉋䉎ផቯ୯䉕␜䈜䋮ᵤ ᵄ䈲࿾㔡䈮઻䈦䈢䉅䈱䈪䈅䉍䋬࿑䈱⺑᣿䈭䈬䈮䈍䈇䈩 એᓟ䈮࿾㔡䈱ฬ⒓䈲⋭⇛䈜䉎䋮 ࿑ 1 䈫࿑ 2 䈮䈲䋬䈠䉏䈡䉏ᢕ⾐䋨╙৻᷼ḧᑪ⸳ዪ䋩䈫 ⥰㢬᧲᷼䋨᳇⽎ᐡ䋩䈪᷹ⷰ䈘䉏䈢ᬌầ⸥㍳䋨᳇⽎ᐡ䋬 1965䋬1984䋬1995䋩䉕␜䈜䋮ᵤᵄೋേ䉕⍫ශ䈪␜䈚䈢䈏䋬 ⥰㢬᧲᷼䈱 1964 ᐕᵤᵄ䈍䉋䈶 1983 ᐕᵤᵄ䈱⸥㍳䈮 䈧䈇䈩䈲๟ᦼ90ಽ䈱䉶䉟䉲䊠䈏ബ⿠䈘䉏䋬ೋേ䈏䈲䈦 䈐䉍䈚䈭䈇䋮1964 ᐕᵤᵄ䈪䈲䋬ᢕ⾐䈫⥰㢬⷏᷼䋨ᶏ਄଻ ቟ᐡ䋩䈪䈱વ᠞ᤨ㑆䉕ෳᾖ䈜䉎䈫䋬㗼⪺䈭᛼䈚ᵄ䈮వ ┙䈤䋬15 ᤨ05 ಽ䈏ೋേ䈫䉂䈭䈘䉏䋬વ᠞ᤨ㑆䈲 2 ᤨ㑆 03 ಽ䈮䈭䉎䋮 ⧯⁜ḧጯ䈪䈲䋬1964 ᐕᵤᵄ䈱⃻࿾⺞ᩏႎ๔䈲䈭䈇 䈏䋬1983 ᐕᵤᵄ䈫 1993 ᐕ䈱ᵤᵄ䈪䈲⹦䈚䈇∥〔⺞ᩏ 䈏ⴕ䉒䉏䈢䋨⥄ὼἴኂ⑼ቇ✚ว⎇ⓥ⃰䋬1984䋻ㇺม䊶 ઁ䋬1994䋩䋮࿑ 3 䈮䈲䋬䈠䉏䉌䈱⺞ᩏႎ๔䈎䉌㆚਄㜞 䋨ᐔဋᶏ㕙਄䋩䈱ಽᏓ䉕␜䈜䋮䈭䈍 1964 ᐕᵤᵄ䈮䈧䈇 䈩䈲䋬ᬌầ⸥㍳䈮䉋䉎ᦨᄢᵄ䈱ోᝄ᏷୯䉕␜䈚䋬ᴪጯ ၞ䈪䈲䈾䈿৻᭽䈮 1 m ೨ᓟ䈪䈅䉎䋮1983 ᐕ䈫 1993 ᐕ 䈱ᵤᵄ㜞䈲 1-2 m 䈪䈅䉍䋬⥰㢬ḧᄖ䈱ዊᯅ䋨䈍䈳䈞䋩䈪. 䇾332-0006 ၯ₹⋵ᎹญᏒᧃᐢ 2-3-13 - 75 -.

(2) 䈲ਔᵤᵄ䈫䉅 3.5 m 䈮㆐䈚䋬⥰㢬᷼ౝᄖ䉇䈠䈱ઁ䈪ᶐ ᳓ⵍኂ䈏಴䈩䈇䉎䋮 §3䋮 ᵄ㜞䈱Ⴧ᏷ᐲ ⧯⁜ḧጯ䈮䈍䈇䈩䋬1940 ᐕⓍਤᴒ䊶1964 ᐕᣂẟ䊶 1983 ᐕ ᣣ ᧄ ᶏ ਛ ㇱ 䈱 ฦ ᵤ ᵄ 䈮 䉋 䉎 ᵻ ᳓ 䊶 ዮ ᛬ 䋨Shoaling䊶Refraction䋩ଥᢙ䈲 1.1 䈫ᓧ䉌䉏䋬ዮ᛬ലᨐ䈮 䉋䉎ᵄ㜞䈱Ⴧ᏷૞↪䈲ዊ䈘䈇䋮࿑ 4 ਄࿑䈮䈲䋬ห䈛ᣇ ᴺ䈮䉋䉎 1993 ᐕർᶏ㆏ධ⷏ᴒᵤᵄ䈱⸃ᨆ଀䉕␜䈜䋮 વ᠞࿑䈲ᵄḮ䈎䉌૞࿑䈚䋬⊒㔡ᤨ䈎䉌 85 ಽએᓟ䈱ᵄ 㕙䉕 5 ಽ㑆㓒䈪␜䈜䋮䈭䈍ᴪጯઃㄭ䈱ᵄ㕙䈲䋬ᬌầ⸥ ㍳䈮䉋䉎ታ᷹વ᠞ᤨ㑆䋨ᤨ䋬ಽ䋩䈫䈾䈿⺞๺⊛䈪䈅䉎䋮 ᵄ✢䉕ឬ䈐ᆎ䉄䈢ᚲ䋨ᵄ㕙䈲 20 km 㑆㓒䈮ಽഀ䋩䈱᳓ ૏䈏᳓ᷓ 100 m 䈱ᴪጯ䈻વ䉒䉎䈫䈐䋬ᵄ㜞䈲ㄭૃ⊛䈮 䉫䊥䊷䊮䈱ᴺೣ䋨ᴪጯ䈫䈱᳓ᷓᲧ䈲 1/4 ਸ਼䋬ᵄ✢䈱᏷Ყ 䈲 1/2 ਸ਼䈪ᵄ㜞䈏ᄌൻ䋩䈪ᄌൻ䈜䉎䈫ข䉍ᛒ䈇䋬S.R ଥ ᢙ䉕⸘▚䈚䈢䋮⸃ᨆ䈱⚿ᨐ䈲࿑ 4 ਅ࿑䈱䉋䈉䈮䈭䉍䋬 S.R ଥᢙ䋨ᩇ⁁䉫䊤䊐䋩䈲∥〔㜞䋨㤥ਣ䋺ᧄᎺᴪጯ䋬⊕ ਣ䋺㓝ጘ⻉ፉ䋩䈱ಽᏓ䈫䈾䈿⺞๺䈚䋬ፉᩮඨፉ䊶㓝ጘ䈪 䈱ଥᢙ䈲 4.5 䈫⓭಴䈜䉎䋮䈚䈎䈚䋬⧯⁜ḧጯ䈪䈲 1.0 䈫 ᳞䉄䉌䉏䋬ዮ᛬ലᨐ䈲ዊ䈘䈇䋮 䈧䈑䈮䋬ᵤᵄ䈱๟ᦼ䈫ᵄ㜞䈫䈱㑐ଥ䉕⷗䈩䉂䉋䈉䋮࿑ 5 䈮䈲䈖䉏䉁䈪䈫䉍ᛒ䈦䈢 3 ᵤᵄ䈮䈧䈇䈩䋬ᢕ⾐䊶⥰㢬 ᧲᷼䊶⥰㢬⷏᷼䊶ችᵤ䈮䈍䈔䉎ᬌầ⸥㍳䈱ᦨᄢᵄ䈱๟ ᦼ䈫ోᝄ᏷୯䈱㑐ଥ䉕␜䈜䋮1964 ᐕᵤᵄ䈪䈲䋬ችᵤ䈫 ᢕ⾐䈪๟ᦼ 20 ಽ⒟ᐲ䈱ᵄ䈏ሽ࿷䈜䉎䋮ᢕ⾐䈱ᬌầ⸥ ㍳ᵄᒻ䋨࿑ 1䋩䈮䈲౒ᝄ⃻⽎䈏⷗䉌䉏䉎䋮䉁䈢䋬ችᵤ䈱 ᷹ⷰᵄᒻ䈪䉶䉟䉲䊠๟ᦼ䈲 18-22 ಽ䈫 42-60 ಽ䈪䈅䉍 䋨Nakano and Unoki䋬1962䋩䋬20 ಽ䈅䈢䉍䈏 1964 ᐕᵤᵄ 䈱ථ⿧๟ᦼ䈮ㄭ䈇䋮৻ᣇ䋬1983 ᐕ䊶1993 ᐕᵤᵄ䈪䈲 ๟ᦼ⚂ 10 ಽ䈱ᵄ䈏ථ⿧䈚䈩䈇䉎䋮䈭䈍䋬ጊ㒶ᴪጯ䈪 䈲ᵤᵄೋേ䈎䉌ᦨᄢᵄ䉁䈪䈱ᤨ㑆㑆㓒䈏 3-4 ᤨ㑆䈱 ᷹ⷰὐ䈏ᄙ䈇䋨⠀㠽䋬1994a䋩䋮ᢕ⾐䈫ችᵤ䈪䉅 1983 ᐕ ᵤᵄ䈫 1993 ᐕᵤᵄ䈲 2-4 ᤨ㑆䈮䈭䉍䋬1964 ᐕᵤᵄ䈪 䈲 5.5 ᤨ㑆䈪䈅䈦䈢䋮 §4䋮 ᱧผᵤᵄ 4.1 ᣣᧄᶏ᧲✼䈱ᵤᵄ 1741 ᐕ 8 ᦬ 29 ᣣ䋨ኡ଻రᐕ৾᦬ච਻ᣣ䋩ർᶏ㆏ᷰ ፉᄢፉᵤᵄ䈲䋬ᷰፉඨፉ⷏ጯၞ䈪 10-15 m એ਄䈱ᵄ 㜞䈮㆐䈚䋨੹᧛䊶᧻ᧄ䋬1998; ㇺม䊶ઁ䋬2002䋩䋬2000 ੱ 䈮䈱䈿䉎ᱫ⠪䉕಴䈚䈢䋮䈖䈱䈫䈐䋬ᷰፉᄢፉ䈪ἫጊྃἫ 䈏䈅䉍䋬ጊ૕䈏ᄢ፣უ䈚䈢䋮ᵤᵄ䈲૒ᷰ䊶ർ㒽䊶ጊ㒶䈪 ⸥㍳䈘䉏ᄢⷙᮨ䈭䈖䈫䈎䉌䋬╩⠪䋨⠀㠽䋬1984䋩䈲⊒↢ ⷐ࿃䉕࿾㔡ᢿጀ䈮䉋䉎ᶏᐩᄌേ䈫䉂䈭䈚䈢䋮ᵤᵄ䈱䊙. 䉫䊆䉼䊠䊷䊄䈲ᵄ㜞䈫㔡ᄩ〒㔌䈱㑐ଥ࿑䈎䉌m 䋽 3.5 䈫ផቯ䈘䉏䋨⠀㠽䋬1984䋩䋬ᣣᧄᶏ஥䈮䈍䈔䉎ᦨᄢ⚖䈱 ⷙᮨ䈪䈅䈦䈢䋮⧯⁜ḧጯ䈪䉅 4 ▎ᚲ䈪⸥㍳䈘䉏䈩䈇䉎 䋨࿑ 6䋩䋮 ᣂ෼ᣣᧄ࿾㔡ผᢱ䋨᧲ᄢ࿾㔡⎇ⓥᚲ✬䋬1989䋩䈮䉋 䉏䈳䋬⥰㢬ḧᄖ䈪䇸ᄢ౉᧛䋨ᄢਤ↢䋩ઃㄭ྾੖䍗᧛ᵤᵄ ᛂ䈤䇹䈫䈅䉎䋮ㄭᐕ⊒ជ䈘䉏䈢ผᢱ䋨ቝ૒⟤䋬1998䋬 2002䋩䈮䈲䇸ዊᯅ᧛䋬㊁ේ᧛㜞ᶉ∩ኅ80 イౝ28 イ䍨ẩ ኅ䋨ਛ⇛䋩㩷 ଧ䍤಴᧪↳䈚ᶉᏅ⠰ᄢ㘑䉅็ਇ↳䍤಴᧪↳ ᵄ䍤⠰୥䇹䈫䈅䉎䋮⑔੗⋵ዊᵿ䈪䈲䇸⚂ 20 イầ౉䉍䋬 ੱ䇱ਇክ䈭䈜䇹䋮䉁䈢䋬⑔੗⋵ᴡ㊁᧛㊄⋧ኹ䈱ㆊ෰Ꮽ 䈮䇸ᒰಣ䍣䍢䍼ầ䍧ᜰᒁ਄ਅ䍛䍷੐౐৾ዤ䋬ਅᶆ䍨ᄀਂᑽዤ 䍬䍢䍼ᜰᒁ↳ᤤ䍧਻䍠ᤨ䍤ಣ䍷ᧂᦦ᦭䍢੔䇹䈫䈅䉎䋮એ਄䈱⸥ ㍳䈎䉌࿾⋚㜞䉕䈸䉁䈋䈢㆚਄଀䈮䉋䉍䋬⥰㢬ḧᄖ䈱ዊ ᯅ䈫㊁ේ䈪ᵤᵄ㜞䋨ᐔဋᶏ㕙਄䋩䈲 3-4 m 䈮㆐䈚䋬ዊᵿ 1 m䋬ᴡ㊁䈪 2 m 䈫ផቯ䈚䈢䋮䈭䈍೨䈮ㅀ䈼䈢䉋䈉䈮䋬 ዊᯅ䈪䈲 1983 ᐕ䈫 1993 ᐕ䈱ᵤᵄ㜞䈲 3.5 m 䈫ታ᷹䈘 䉏䈩䈍䉍䋨ㇺม䊶ઁ䋬1994䋩䋬Ფ࿁ᵤᵄ㜞䈏ዪ࿾⊛䈮㜞 䈇䋮 ৻ᣇ䋬1833 ᐕ12 ᦬7 ᣣ䋨ᄤ଻྾ᐕච᦬ੑ౐ᣣ䋩ጊᒻ ⋵ᴒ࿾㔡䋨䌍7.5䋩䈮઻䈉ᵤᵄ䈲䋬ጊᒻ⋵ᴪጯ䈪 5-8 m 䈱ᵄ㜞䈮㆐䈚䋬૒ᷰ䊶㓝ጘ䈮䉅ᶐ᳓ⵍኂ䉕䉅䈢䉌䈚䈩䋬 ⢻⊓ベፉ䈪 47 ੱ䈱ᱫ⠪䉕಴䈚䈢䋮ᵤᵄ䊙䉫䊆䉼䊠䊷䊄 䈲 m = 2.5 䈫ផቯ䈘䉏䈩䈍䉍䋨⠀㠽䋬1990䋩䋬1964 ᐕᣂẟ ᵤᵄ䉋䉍਄࿁䈦䈢䋮ᣂ෼ᣣᧄ࿾㔡ผᢱ䋨᧲ᄢ࿾㔡⎇ⓥ ᚲ✬䋬1989䋩䈮䉋䉏䈳䋬⑔੗⋵ዊᵿ䈪䈲䇸ᥙਊ਄ೞ࿾ 㔡䋬᣿䍗ㄖೞ䉋䉍ầㄟ䍤䍡ᎹㄥᏅㄟ䇹䈫䈅䉎䋮↸䈮㆚਄䈚 䈭䈎䈦䈢䉋䈉䈪䈅䉍䋬ᵤᵄ㜞䈲 1 m ⒟ᐲ䈫䉂䈭䈘䉏䉎䋮 4.2 ㄭ࿾࿾㔡ᵤᵄ ⧯⁜ḧౝᄖ䈮䈲ᢙ᧦䈱ᵴᢿጀ⟲䈏䈅䉎䈏䋬ⵍኂ࿾ 㔡䉇ᵤᵄ䈱⊒↢ઙᢙ䈲Ყセ⊛ዋ䈭䈇䋮࿑7 䈮䈲䋬ਥ䈭 ᵴᢿጀ䈫๟ㄝ䈱࿾㔡㔡ᄩ䋨࿾㔡⺞ᩏ⎇ⓥផㅴᧄㇱ䋬 1997䋩䈍䉋䈶࿾㔡ᵤᵄ䈱ᵄ㜞ಽᏓ䉕␜䈜䋮 1662 ᐕ 6 ᦬ 16 ᣣ䋨ኡᢥੑᐕ੖᦬৻ᣣ䋩ㄭᳯ䊶⧯⁜࿾ 㔡䈲䋬ṑ⾐⋵䊶੩ㇺᐭ䈭䈬ᐢ▸࿐䈮ᄢἴኂ䉕䉅䈢䉌䈚䋬 ᱫ⠪ 880 ૛ੱ䈮䈱䈿䈦䈢䋮ᦨㄭ䋬ਃᣇ੖ḓ๟ㄝ䈱࿾Ზ ᄌേᢥᦠ䉕䉅䈫䈮䋬ḓ⇎ฦᚲ䈪㓉⿠ᴉ㒠㊂䈱⺞ᩏ䈏ⴕ 䉒䉏䈢䋨ዊ᧻ේ䊶ઁ䋬1999䋩䋮ᶏጯ䈮ㄭ䈇ਭ䇱ሶ䋨䈒䈓 䈚䋩ḓ๟ㄝ䈪 2.6-3 m䋬ᣣะ䋨䈵䉎䈏䋩ḓ᧲ጯ䈪 5 m 㓉⿠䋬 ਃᣇḓධ⷏ጯ䈪䈲ᴉ㒠䈚䈢䋮࿾Ზᄌേၞ䈏ᶏ஥䈻િ 䈶䋬ᵤᵄ䈏⊒↢䈚䈢น⢻ᕈ䈏䈅䉎䋮 ᤨઍ䉕ᄢ䈐䈒ḽ䉍䋬701 ᐕ5 ᦬12 ᣣ䋨ᄢቲరᐕਃ᦬ੑ ౐ᣣ䋩⥰㢬ᴒ䈱౰ፉ䈫ጁፉ䈏࿾㔡䈪ᴉ㒠䈚䈢વᛚ䈏䈅 䉎䋮⃻࿷䈱౰ፉઃㄭ䈱ᶏᐩ࿾ᒻ䈏䋬ᄢቲ࿾㔡䈪ᐢၞ 䈮࿾Ზ䈱ᴉ㒠ㆇേ䈪↢䈛䈢䉅䈱䈎䋬⇼໧ⷞ䈘䉏䈩䈇䉎. - 76 -.

(3) 䋨⪤ේ䊶ઁ䋬1982䋩䋮 1927 ᐕ 3 ᦬ 7 ᣣർਤᓟ࿾㔡䈲ඨፉ䈱㗖ㇱ䈮⊒↢䈚䋬 ᱫ⠪䈲੩ㇺᐭ䈾䈎ో૕䈪2䋬925ੱ䈮䈱䈿䈦䈢䋮⃻࿷䋬 㔡Ḯ䈱ㇹ᧛ᢿጀ䈱৻ㇱಽ䈏䋬✂㊁↸䈮ᄤὼ⸥ᔨ‛䈫 䈚䈩଻ሽ䈘䉏䈩䈇䉎䋮䈖䈱࿾㔡䈲ᵤᵄ䉕઻䈇䋬 ਤᓟඨ ፉᴪጯ䈪ᵄ㜞 1.2-1.5 m䋬ᶏጯ䈮ḷ䉏䋨↰ਛ㙚䋬1927䋩䋬 Ṫ⦁䈮ᵹ಴ⵍኂ䈏䈅䈦䈢䋮 ᵤᵄ䊙䉫䊆䉼䊠䊷䊄䈲䋬ᵄ 㜞඙ಽ䈎䉌䌭 = 0 䈫ផቯ䈘䉏䉎䋮䈠䈱䈾䈎䋬1963 ᐕ 3 ᦬ 27 ᣣ䈮⊒↢䈚䈢⿧೨ጧᴒ࿾㔡䈪䋬ᢕ⾐䈎䉌ዊᵿ䈮 䈎䈔䈩ዊⵍኂ䈏䈅䈦䈢䋮 §5䋮 䉃䈜䈶 ⧯⁜ḧጯ䉕ኻ⽎䈮䋬1964 ᐕᣂẟ䋬1983 ᐕᣣᧄᶏਛ ㇱ䋬1993 ᐕർᶏ㆏ධ⷏ᴒ䈱ฦᵤᵄ䈮䈧䈇䈩䋬ᴪጯၞ 䈪䈱ᵤᵄ䈱ዮ᛬ലᨐ䈫᷼ḧ䉶䉟䉲䊠䈫䈱㑐ㅪ䉕ᬌ⸛䈚 䈢䋮⸃ᨆ䈱⚿ᨐ䋬ᵤᵄ㜞䈲 1-2 m ⒟ᐲ䈪䈅䉍䋬㆙ᣇ䈎䉌 વ᠞䈜䉎ᵤᵄ䈱ዮ᛬ലᨐ䈲ዊ䈘䈇䋮䈚䈎䈚䋬⥰㢬ḧᄖ 䈱ዊᯅ䈪䈲ዪ࿾⊛䈭࿾ᒻ᧦ઙ䈪Ფ࿁ 3.5 m 䈮㆐䈚䋬ᶐ ᳓ⵍኂ䉕䉅䈢䉌䈚䈢䋮䉁䈢䋬⧯⁜ḧጯ䈪䈲౒ᝄ૞↪䈫㊀ 䈭䉍䋬ᵤᵄೋേ䈎䉌 4-5 ᤨ㑆ᓟ䈮ᦨᄢᵄ䈮䈭䉎଀䈏ᄙ䈒䋬 ੍ႎ㕙䈪ᵈᗧ䈜䈼䈐᜼േ․ᕈ䈪䈅䉎䈫ᜰ៰䈪䈐䉎䋮 ৻ᣇ䋬1662 ᐕㄭᳯ䊶⧯⁜࿾㔡䈪ᵤᵄ䉕઻䈦䈢น⢻ᕈ 䈏䈅䉎䋮⧯⁜ḧౝᄖ䈮ᢙ᧦䈱ᵴᢿጀ⟲䈏⍮䉌䉏䈩䈍䉍䋬 䈖䉏䉌䈱ᵴേ䈮઻䈉ᵤᵄ䈱น⢻ᕈ䈮⇐ᗧ䈜䈼䈐䈪䈅 䉎䋮 ኻ⽎࿾㔡䋺㩷 701 ᐕᄢቲ䋬1662 ᐕㄭᳯ䊶⧯⁜䋬1741 ᐕᷰ ፉᄢፉ䋬1833 ᐕጊᒻ⋵ᴒ䋬1927 ᐕർਤᓟ䋬1940 Ⓧਤ ᴒ䋬1964 ᐕᣂẟ䋬1983 ᐕᣣᧄᶏਛㇱ䋬1993 ᐕർᶏ㆏ ධ⷏ᴒ䋮 ᢥ ₂ ⨹੗⾫৻䊶ㇺมཅት䋬1998䋬ᵤᵄ䈮䉋䈦䈩ബ⿠䈘䉏䈢 ḧ䈱࿕᦭ᝄേਛ䈱䊝䊷䊄ᰳ⪭䋬᦬ೀᶏᵗ䋬ภᄖ No.15䋬77-81. ⍹ᯅసᒾ䊶ේ↰ᥓ਽䋬2006䋬ᣣᧄᶏ䈱ᧂ⍮䈱ᄢ࿾㔡䈮 䉋䉎ᵤᵄ䉲䊚䊠䊧䊷䉲䊢䊮:⧯⁜ḧർᣇᴒ䈱႐ว䋬 ᣣᧄ࿾㔡ቇળ⻠Ṷ੍Ⓜ㓸䋬⑺ቄᄢળ䋬C009. ⪤ේዅ␞✬⪺䋬1982䋬ฎ࿾㔡ᱧผ⾗ᢱ䈫ᵴᢿጀ䈎䉌 䈘䈓䉎䋬᧲੩ᄢቇ಴ ળ. ⠀㠽㩷 ᓼᄥ㇢䋬1984䋬ർᶏ㆏ᷰፉᴒᵤᵄ䋨1741 ᐕ䋩䈱 ᜼േ䈱ౣᬌ⸛䋬࿾㔡⎇ⓥᚲᒵႎ䋬59䋬115-125. ⠀㠽㩷 ᓼᄥ㇢䋬1990䋬ᄤ଻ 4 ᐕ䋨1833䋩ጊᒻᴒ࿾㔡䈫䈠 䈱ᵤᵄ䈱ⷙᮨ䋬࿾㔡 2䋬43䋬227-232.. ⠀㠽㩷 ᓼᄥ㇢䋬1994a䋬ጊ㒶࿾ᣇ䈱ᵤᵄ䈱․ᕈ䋬ᵤᵄ Ꮏቇ⎇ⓥႎ๔䋬11䋬33-40. ⠀㠽㩷 ᓼᄥ㇢䋬1994b䋬1993 ᐕർᶏ㆏ධ⷏ᴒ࿾㔡ᵤᵄ 䈱ⷙᮨ䈍䉋䈶ᵄḮၞ䋬࿾㔡 2䋬47䋬1-9. ⠀㠽㩷 ᓼᄥ㇢䋬1999䋬⢻⊓ඨፉ䈮䈍䈔䉎ᵤᵄ䈱ዮ᛬ല ᨐ䋬࿾㔡 2䋬52䋬43-50. ੹᧛ᢥᒾ䊶᧻ᧄᥓ⵨䋬1998䋬1741 ᐕᷰፉᄢፉἫጊᵤᵄ 䈱∥〔⺞ᩏ䋬ᵤᵄᎿቇ⎇ⓥႎ๔䋬15䋬85-105. ࿾㔡⺞ᩏ⎇ⓥផㅴᧄㇱ䊶࿾㔡⺞ᩏᆔຬળ䋬1997䋬ᣣᧄ 䈱࿾㔡ᵴേⵍኂ࿾㔡䈎䉌⷗䈢࿾ၞ೎䈱․ᓽ䋬 䋨⽷䋩࿾㔡੍⍮✚ว⎇ⓥᝄ⥝ળ䋬391p. ᳇⽎ᐡ䋬1965䋬ᤘ๺ 39 ᐕ 6 ᦬ 16 ᣣᣂẟ࿾㔡⺞ᩏႎ๔䋬 ᳇⽎ᐡᛛⴚႎ๔䋬No.43. ᳇⽎ᐡ䋬1984䋬ᤘ๺ 58 ᐕ䋨1983 ᐕ䋩ᣣᧄᶏਛㇱ࿾㔡⺞ ᩏႎ๔䋬᳇⽎ᐡᛛⴚႎ๔䋬No.106. ᳇⽎ᐡ䋬1995䋬ᐔᚑ 5 ᐕ䋨1993 ᐕ䋩ർᶏ㆏ධ⷏ᴒ࿾㔡 ⺞ᩏႎ๔䋬᳇⽎ᐡᛛⴚႎ๔䋬No.117. ዊ᧻ේ㩷 ℉䊶᳓㊁ᷡ⑲䊶㊄↰ᐔᄥ㇢䊶㗇⮮ቬቁ䊶ጊᩮ㩷 ඳ䋬1999䋬ผᢱ䈮䉋䉎 1662 ᐕኡᢥ࿾㔡ᤨ䈱ਃᣇ ੖ḓ๟ㄝ䈮䈍䈔䉎࿾Ზᄌേ䈱ᓳర䋬ᱧผ࿾㔡䋬 15䋬81-100. Nakano䋬M. and S. Unoki䋬1962䋬On the seiches䋨the secondary undulations of tides䋩 along the coast of Japan. Rec. Oceanog. Works Japan䋬 Spec. No.6䋬 169-214. ⥄ὼἴኂ⑼ቇ✚ว⎇ⓥ⃰䋨ઍ⴫䋺ਸ਼ን৻㓶䋩䋬1984䋬 1983 ᐕᣣᧄᶏਛㇱ࿾㔡䈮䉋䉎ἴኂ䈱✚ว⊛⺞ᩏ ⎇ⓥ䋬ᢥㇱ⋭⑼ቇ⎇ⓥᚑᨐ䋬386p. ↰ਛ㙚㩷 ⑲ਃ䋬1927䋬ᅏਤᓟ࿾㔡䈱㓙ᶏጯ䈱᣹㒠ㆇേ䋬 ౔ 1-2䋬࿾ቇ㔀⹹䋬39 ᐕ䋬465 ภ䋬617-627䋬 704-717. ᧲ᄢ࿾㔡⎇ⓥᚲ✬䋬1989䋬ᣂ෼ᣣᧄ࿾㔡ผᢱ䋬⵬ㆮ䋬 䋨␠䋩ᣣᧄ㔚᳇දળ䋬1222 p. ㇺมཅት䋬1987䋬㓝ጘ⻉ፉ䈱ᵤᵄ䈱ᱧผ䋬᦬ೀ࿾⃿䋬 9䋬229-234. ㇺมཅት䊶ട⮮ஜੑ䊶⨹੗⾫৻䊶਄↰๺ᨑ䋬1994䋬ർᶏ ㆏ධ⷏ᴒ࿾㔡ᵤᵄ䈱⷏ᣣᧄᶏጯ䈪䈱ᶐ᳓㜞䋬᦬ ೀᶏᵗ䋬ภᄖ No.7䋬192-200. ㇺมཅት䊶⷏⇌㩷 ೰䊶૒⮮⾆ผ䊶૒⮮৻ᢅ䋬2002䋬ኡ଻ రᐕ䋨1741䋩ᷰፉᄢፉྃἫᵤᵄ䈮䉋䉎ർᶏ㆏ᴪጯ 䈪䈱ᶐ᳓㜞䈘䋬᦬ೀᶏᵗ䋬ภᄖ No.28䋬15-44. ቝ૒⟤㩷 㦖ᄦ✬䋬1998䋬ᣣᧄ䈱ᱧผ࿾㔡ผᢱ䋬ᜪㆮ䋬 䋨␠䋩ᣣᧄ㔚᳇දળ䋬512 p䋮 ቝ૒⟤㩷 㦖ᄦ✬䋬2002䋬ᣣᧄ䈱ᱧผ࿾㔡ผᢱ䋬ᜪㆮੑ䋬 䋨␠䋩ᣣᧄ㔚᳇දળ䋬583 p䋮. - 77 -.

(4) -78-. ࿑ 1㩷 ᢕ⾐䈪䈱ᣂẟ䍃ᣣᧄᶏਛㇱ䊶ർᶏ㆏ධ⷏ᴒ࿾㔡ᵤᵄ䈱ᬌầ⸥㍳䋮 Fig. 1. Tide-gauge records of the 1964 Niigata, 1983 Nihonkai-Chubu, and the 1993 SW. Hokkaido earthquake tsunamis observed at Tsuruga.. ࿑ 2㩷 ⥰㢬᧲᷼䈪䈱ᣂẟ䍃ᣣᧄᶏਛㇱ䊶ർᶏ㆏ධ⷏ᴒ࿾㔡ᵤᵄ䈱ᬌầ⸥㍳䋮 Fig. 2. Tide-gauge records of the 1964 Niigata, 1983 Nihonkai-Chubu, and the 1993 SW. Hokkaido earthquake tsunamis observed at E. Maizuru..

(5) ࿑ 3㩷 ⧯⁜ḧጯ䈱ᵄ㜞ಽᏓ䋨ᣂẟ䍃ᣣᧄᶏਛㇱ䊶ർᶏ㆏ධ⷏ᴒ࿾㔡ᵤᵄ䋩䋮 Fig. 3. Distribution of the tsunami heights in Wakasa Bay.. ࿑ 4䋨਄࿑䋩ർᶏ㆏ධ⷏ᴒ࿾㔡ᵤᵄ䈱વ᠞࿑䋨ᵄ㕙䋺5 ಽ㑆㓒䋩䋬䋨ਅ࿑䋩ᵄ㜞䈱ᵻ᳓䊶ዮ᛬ଥᢙ䈫ᵄ㜞ಽᏓ䈱 Ყセ䋮 Fig. 4. Refraction diagram of the 1993 SW. Hokkaido earthquake tsunami and the observed travel times (upper). Comparison of the shoaling-refraction factor (column) and the distribution of tsunami heights (lower).. - 79 -. ࿑ 5 ⧯⁜ḧጯ䈪䈱ᦨᄢᵄ๟ᦼ䈫ᵄ㜞䈫䈱㑐ଥ䋮 Fig. 5. Relation between the period of maximum wave and double amplitude of tsunamis in Wakasa Bay..

(6) ࿑ 6㩷 1741 ᐕᷰፉᄢፉ䈱ᵤᵄ䈍䉋䈶 1833 ᐕጊᒻ⋵ᴒ࿾㔡ᵤᵄ䈱ᵄ㜞ಽᏓ䋮 Fig. 6 Distribution of inundation heights of the 1741 SW. Hokkaido tsunami and the 1844 Yamagata-Oki earthquake tsunami.. ࿑ 7㩷 ⧯⁜ḧ๟ㄝ䈱ᵴᢿጀ䈫࿾㔡䍃ᵤᵄಽᏓ䋮 Fig. 7. Distribution of active faults, earthquakes, and tsunamis around the Wakasa Bay.. - 80 -.

(7)

Fig. 4. Refraction diagram of the 1993 SW. Hokkaido  earthquake tsunami and the observed travel times  (upper)
Fig. 7. Distribution of active faults, earthquakes, and tsunamis around the Wakasa Bay

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