戦略と可能性―人間・持続可能性・気候 利用統計を見る

戦略と可能性―人間・持続可能性・気候

著者

Gregg Suhler

雑誌名

「エコ・フィロソフィ」研究 別冊

号

2

ページ

171-176

発行年

2008-03

URL

http://doi.org/10.34428/00005239

Creative Commons : 表示 - 非営利 - 改変禁止

http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/deed.ja

東洋大学「エコ・フィロソフィ」研究 Vo1．2 別冊 シンポジウム・講演会・セミナー 編

171

「戦略と可能性一人間・持続可能性・気候」

172

国際セミナー

「持続可能な発展と自然・人間」

DY『NAMIC PREDICTABLES丘’om COLUMBIA， MISSOURI

HUMANS， SUSTAINABILITY， and CLtMA1「E

Strategy and Capacity：Humans、 Sustainabiiity， and Climate． lR3S Conference， Mito， lbaraki， Japan 20071201      Several presentations address sustainability through different framewoFks beginning with honored values and respecting the ways of natute． The IR3S framework draws upon global，social and human systems and their associated natural sciences， social sciences and humanities to adva［ce the quest for soMng the world’s problems． With numerous crosscutting characterizations possible， one framewoFk that has operationa【applicabi［ity is to think ln teFms of strategy and capacity．      One fundamental planning tenet is that it is easier to change a strategy than it is to change a capacity， A corollary is that avallable and anticipateable capacity helps filter which strategies are deemed realistic or practical and with what costs and benefits．      That climate’s realities might af「ect the material part of our lives seems intuitivelyobvious． From economic sciences， one fi［ds that climate afrects Gross Domestic Product at a level of about 15％in the most industrialized countries and at about 80％in the least developed countries From social sciences， one thinks of such eXtreme eve［ts as the Americar11930s Dust Bowl which in conjunctlon with the Depression dashed the hopes of peopie and altered land use paths． The abiiity to unrave｜the interconnectedness of all human events challenged the relatively new statistical sciences． Hence the disparaging term t’Dust Bowl Empiricism”arose when causaMy first biurs then fails as statistical correlatio［s generated the view that everything is connected to everything else but perhaps not in a knowable and usefu｜way， The humanities reveal human culture as seeking order and less freque［tly justice in the workings of the rain and snow heat and cold，the tempest’s furies， and the u［derlying principles and spirits that guide them．

東洋大学「エコ・フ．イロソフィ」研究

Vol．2別冊

シンポジウム・講演会・セミナー

編

173

     Politica‖y， the very stability of societies still depends upon favorable enough harvests and u［derlying climate as nearby history w｝tnesses these examples： 1．food riots，（Russia 1917）， 2．Bengal Famine kMs 4，0001000 undercuts core stability（British India 1943） 3、dynastic col［apse at e［d of multidecadal drought（Ming 1644・5）， 4．changing politlca［power lndonesia（1998）， 5．altered percep嚢on of competence and Legitimacy New Orleans刊ood（2005） 6、Less dramaticbut as consequential are the c師mate cofactors inthe sweep of ttopical and certain other epidemにdiseases beginning with malaria．      αimate is ever−changing and its mark is left nea目y everywhere Fundamental forces and system responses drive Earth． being in a qulte kinetic part of the universe、 in complex yet we［1 behaved ways． Dealing with perceived climateρroblems often falls into either aversion or adaptation strategies． Adaptation to local and regionai climate changes stands to be improved through reliable climate predictbns by way of improved planning and operations， On aversio［， accurately predicting climate with and without policy sens｝tive climate variab｜es embedded seems to be a reasonably high standard to meet before serious｜y setting about changing the actual climate itseif、 a recentiy suggested and actively explored apProach，      However， maybe it makes sense to ask that we first demonstrate a capacity for climate u∩derstanding su研cient enough to predict accurately and reliably overdecadal tlme frames at regional or be廿er spatial scales      Climate behaves and predicts well enough over Nlno3 regiorl equatorial sea surface temperatures（SST）， marine−coastal transiUorl region（Oregon）and continental interior（Shenハ∼ood No直h Dakota）site−specific USA predpitation at 5− 10years fOrward to suggest a relevant capacity exists to facilitate sustainability through better plan［ing and opera∂ons． The above three prediction examples were shown at the AAAS2006 Annual Meeting symposium”El Nino Predictabi｝itゾ， organized by this presenter． Underlying physics was also shared． Prediction examples to be shown at this sustalnability conference｝nclude Mito in lbaraki prefecture and Tokyo， Let”sexamine a key prindple of the physics involved． The Earth system is driven by the solar annua「cycie． Nmost all the energy is inthe 12mDnth and 6 month period term5、 lt can be showれthat the Earth system response favors possib｜e soiutions with osci｜latory periods involving powers of 2 to the nth power years， i．e．248163264128．．．，years． The more general form for all periods is：

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174

国際セミナー

「持続．ロ∫能な発展と自然・人間」

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D．． ↑？70・fJeA＞ ． ・・．・ve．・・…．1stStegeM ． ・→一 ・ ResdlNegr 白sdb／°“｝’101e retiNear   ．｛． ．．．PEetiL−hOle l：1「‘鴫F」eri‘コd    「：1bse ．．．／e〔1

egional Climate Prediction

regon Climate Division O1（Coastal）precipitation prediction was done using

ata through 200012． This predictiorl was presented before the American

ssociation of State Climatologists Annual Meeting in August 2001 and before

he American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting in December 2002． Key features

re catching the patterns for both the average year and extremes、 This

rediction turns 7 years old from January 2008． Note predicting the patterns for

coastal／maritime transition in the US Pacific Northwest．

東洋大学「エコ・フィロソフィ」研究 Vb1，2別冊 シンポジウム・講演会・セミナー 編

175

Site−Specific Prediction

Sherwood 3N North Dakota precipitation records come from

aUS Canada border station． This prediction was made for a

customer in January 2004． DataEnd was 200106（pointer）．

丁his chart was first shown at a US Nationat Weather Ser∨ice

Climate Ser∨ices workshop in Juty 2004

She…ood ND（c328047）Precipitation PredictionDataEnd200106 by DynaPred

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（Northwest）．

Prediction input data ended 200007． Note pattern

proportionality and declining maximum temperature going

into 2004、 ln 2004， freezing temperatures occurred in each

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176

国際セミナー

「持続可能な発展と自然・人間」

    Pre面ctability is but another tool to be used in Capacityls tool chest」t is a tooほhat offers foresight capab服y in mankind’s workings within the environment． Predictability is a tool that stands to help all the other tools work a little better． SustainabiUty is a value， an approach， an ultimate measure as to the suitability of mankind’s tenure on this Earth． Properly used climate predictab川ty and its methods hold forth the prospect of broadened time reference frames for thoughtful， considered engagement of a major factor in this Earthly existence， Climate is a basic capacity component．     Systematic and careful evaluation of strategies and capacities is best examined through an honest broker process． Little room properlyexists for science where the strength and effectiveness of advocacy outstr申s the fundamental knowledge， However， such appears not to be the case today as science and politics try to first understand and then come to terms with global change in an ever more populated world．     丁he prediction capabjljty demonstrated brieflyhere today cajls into question many of the unsupported scientific assertions that go into the current Global Change debate． The science involved here is virtually al1−natural climate dynamics but not as conventionaljy practiced． Such ought to be

welcome news as mankind seeks good ways into the future．

    However， this science might be inconvenient in the short run for the politics involved． Certainly the standard for knowing what you’re talking about in climate is being raised， l think， to reasonably high levels considering what is at stake，     Strategies need to be considered with capacities， There「s a new capacity to be considered when it comes to climate science and such sciences being put to service with other sciences．     lt is an honor to be here learning and sharing with you、