ȝ 3119ාༀ࣭ఱൡႀ஖ݷ͈ζȜΉΞͻϋΈ!)4*!

(1)

G

ॅޮఱڠܮါ! ޗူڠ໐! ల55ےȪలˎ࣢ȫ!3119ා!

༆! ! क़!

໹! ႅ! ܮ! ঊ!

3119ාༀ࣭ఱൡႀ஖ݷ͈ζȜΉΞͻϋΈ!)4*!

ȝ!๊֚஖ݷ΅λϋβȜϋ̤̫ͥͅ΂Ψζ͈ήρϋΟͻϋΈ!

(2)

ၯ₹ᄢቇ♿ⷐ㧔ᢎ㙃ቇㇱ㧕╙Ꮞ╙㧞ภ ᐕ

3119ාༀ࣭ఱൡႀ஖ݷ͈ζȜΉΞͻϋΈ)4*!

ȝ ๊֚஖ݷ΅λϋβȜϋ̤̫ͥͅ΂Ψζ͈ήρϋΟͻϋΈ

The 2008 U. S. Presidential Campaign from a Marketing Perspective Part 3: The Branding of Candidate ‘Obama’ in the General Election Campaign

໹! ႅ! ܮ! ঊ^ɖ^!

11

᦬

4

ᣣⴕࠊࠇߚ

2008

ᐕᄢ⛔㗔ㆬ᜼৻⥸ᛩ

␿ߢޔ᳃ਥౄ

Barack Obama

୥⵬ߪޔㆬ᜼ੱㆊඨ ᢙ

270

ੱࠍᄢ߈ߊ⿥߃ࠆ

365

ੱࠍ₪ᓧߒޔ߹ߚ

ో☨ᓧ␿ᢙߢ߽⸘

66,882,230

␿ޔᓧ␿₸

53

㧑ࠍ ᓧߡޔ౒๺ౄ

John McCain

୥⵬ߦ࿶ൎߒޔ╙

44

ઍ☨࿖วⴐ࿖ᄢ⛔㗔ߩዞછ߇᳿߹ߞߚޕߘࠇߪޔ

McCain

୥⵬ߩㆬ᜼ੱ₪ᓧᢙ

173

ੱޔో☨ᓧ␿ᢙ

58,343,671

␿ޔᓧ␿₸

46㧑ࠍᄢ߈ߊಒ߉ޔ᳃ਥ

ౄᄢ⛔㗔୥⵬ߣߒߡߪ

1976

ᐕㆬ᜼ߢᓧ␿₸

50㧑ࠍᓧߚ Jimmy Carter

એ᧪ޔ32 ᐕ߱ࠅߩ

mandate

㧔ㆊඨᢙᆔછ㧕ࠍᓧࠆၴޘߚࠆൎ೑ߢ޽

ߞߚޕ

Obama

㒯༡ߪߎߩㆬ᜼ో૕ࠍㅢߓߡޔᣥ᧪ߩ

ਛᄩ᡽ᴦޔኻ┙ߣಽᢿߩ᡽ᴦᚻᴺߛߌߢߥߊޔ

⃻࿷ߩ☨࿖߇ᛴ߃ࠆ᭴ㅧ⊛ߥ໧㗴ࠍ฽߼ߚޔᐢ

▸ߥޟᄌ㕟(change)ޠࠍ⸷߃ߚޕ̌Obama ߪޔ࿖

㓙␠ળߦ߅ߌࠆ࿾૏ޔᏒ႐⚻ᷣߩⴕᣇࠍ฽߼ߡޔ ߐ߹ߑ߹ߥ߭ߕߺߣ㔍໧ߦ⋥㕙ߔࠆ⃻࿷ߩ☨࿖

ࠍᄌ㕟ߔࠆߎߣ߇ߢ߈ࠆ̍ޔ̌࿖ࠍᣂߒߊࠃࠅ⦟

޿ᤨઍߦዉߊߚ߼ߩޟߚ޿߹ߟࠍฃߌ⛮ߋߩߪ

Obamaޠ¹

ߒ߆޿ߥ޿̍̆̆ᧄⓂߢߪޔߎߩࠃ߁

ߥ

Obama

㒯༡ߦࠃࠆᄌ㕟ߩޟࡉ࡜ࡦ࠼᭴▽

(branding)

ޠߩᚑุߣᚢ⇛ࠍޔౄᄢળ߆ࠄᛩ␿ᣣ

߹ߢߩ৻⥸ㆬ᜼ࠠࡖࡦࡍ࡯ࡦࠍਛᔃߦᬌ⸛ߔࠆޕ ߹ߕޔ㧝ߢߪਥߦ಴ญ⺞ᩏߩ⚿ᨐࠍ߽ߣߦޔ

Obama

ߦᦼᓙߐࠇࠆޟᄌ㕟ޠߩਛりޔ᦭ᮭ⠪ߩ

ㆬᛯߩᗧ๧ࠍಽᨆߒߡ޿ߊޕᰴ޿ߢ㧞ߢߪޔߘ ߩᄌ㕟ࠍታⴕߔࠆߚ߼ߩၮ⋚ߣߥࠆ᦭ᮭ⠪ᡰᜬޔ Ꮊ₪ᓧߩߚ߼ߩ࠲࡯ࠥ࠹ࠖࡦࠣߣߘߩᚑุࠍޔ ㆊ෰ߩᄢ⛔㗔ㆬ᜼࠺࡯࠲ߣᲧセߒߥ߇ࠄ⺰ߓࠆޕ

ᰴߦޔ㧟ߢߪᄌ㕟ࡔ࠶࠮࡯ࠫߩᶐㅘࠍ฽߼ߚ

Obama

ߩࡉ࡜ࡦ࠼࡮ࡊࡠࡕ࡯࡚ࠪࡦᚢ⇛ޔ㧠ߢ

ߪ̌ਅ߆ࠄ̍ߩࡉ࡜ࡦ࠺ࠖࡦࠣߣߒߡߩ⨲ߩᩮ

ࠠࡖࡦࡍ࡯ࡦ⚵❱ൻࠍߘࠇߙࠇᬌ⸛ߔࠆޕᦨᓟ ߦ㧡ߢߪޔᄌ㕟ߩࠗࡔ࡯ࠫࠍౕ૕ൻޔนⷞൻߔ ࠆᣂ᡽ᮭ㑑௥ੱ੐ߩᚢ⇛ࠍ᭎ⷰߔࠆޕ

㧝ޟᄌ㕟ޠࠍ᳞߼ࠆᤨઍߦㆬ߫ࠇߚ

Obama

̆಴ญ⺞ᩏ߇વ߃ࠆࡔ࠶࠮࡯ࠫ

ߎߎߢߪਥⷐႎ㆏ฦ␠౒ห಴⾗ߩࠦࡦ࠰࡯ࠪ

ࠕࡓߦࠃࠆో☨಴ญ⺞ᩏ⚿ᨐ

²

ࠍ߽ߣߦޔ

Obama

࿶ൎࠍ߽ߚࠄߒߚ᦭ᮭ⠪ߩࡔ࠶࠮࡯ࠫޔᦼᓙߐ ࠇࠆᄌ㕟ߩౕ૕⊛ౝኈࠍ᭎ⷰߒߚ޿ޕ

1-1 ⃻࿷ߩෂᯏࠍ⣕ߔࠆߚ߼ߩޟᄌ㕟ޠ

(1)㊄Ⲣෂᯏߣ⚻ᷣߩᖡൻ߇ޔᦨᄢߩ᳿ቯ࿃

Obama

ൎ೑ߪޔ㛳߈ߢߪߥ߆ߞߚޕㆬ᜼೨ߩ

ฦ␠਎⺰⺞ᩏߪߤࠇ߽

Obama

ൎ೑ࠍ੍᷹ߒߡ ߅ࠅޔMcCain ߣߩᏅߪᦨᄢߢ

11㧑㧔Gallup

⺞ ᩏ߅ࠃ߮

Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby

౒ห⺞ᩏޔ11

᦬

1

ᣣ㨪3 ᣣታᣉ㧕ޔਥⷐฦ␠⺞ᩏߩᐔဋ୯ߢ

㧖߭ࠄ߫߿ߒ࡮ߩࠅߎ

ၯ₹ᄢቇᢎ㙃ቇㇱᢎ᝼ޔ᡽ᴦࠦࡒࡘ࠾ࠤ࡯࡚ࠪࡦ⎇ⓥ

(3)

7.6㧑Ꮕ㧔10

᦬

29

ᣣ㨪11 ᦬

3

ᣣታᣉಽޔ

RealClearPolitics

⺞ߴ㧕ߣ޿߁ᢙሼ߇␜ߐࠇߡ޿

ߚ

³

ޕ

ో࿖਎⺰⺞ᩏߦߺࠆ

Obamaఝ൓ߪޔ᳃ਥౄ੍

஻ㆬ᜼ᓟ Obama

߇᳃ਥౄᄢ⛔㗔୥⵬ߦᜰฬߐ

ࠇࠆߎߣ߇⏕ታߦߥߞߚ㧢᦬એ㒠ޔ㧥᦬ೋ㗡ߩ

౒๺ౄᄢળ߹ߢ৻⽾ߒߡ޿ࠆޕ

౒๺ౄᄢળߪޔࡂ࡝ࠤ࡯ࡦޟࠣࠬ࠲ࡈޠߩᓇ

㗀ߢᄢ᏷ߦౝኈࠍ❗ዊߒߚ߽ߩߩޔᡰᜬ₸20

㧑

บᓟඨߢૐㅅߒߚ߹߹ߩਇੱ᳇ Bush

ᄢ⛔㗔߇

ᆫࠍ⷗ߖߕޔ߹ߚ೽ᄢ⛔㗔୥⵬ߦᜰฬߐࠇߚ Alaska

Ꮊ⍮੐

Sarah Palin

ߩᒝὓ߆ߟᣂ㞲ߥ⸷᳞

ജ߽ᚻવ޿ޔObama

ੱ᳇ߦᗧ᳇ߩ਄߇ࠄߥ߆ߞ ߚ౒๺ౄᡰᜬጀߪ৻᳇ߦᵴ᳇ߠ޿ߚ

⁴

ޕߎࠇ߇ഞ ࠍᄼߒޔ

⍴ᦼ⊛ߦߖࠃMcCain

߇

Obama

ࠍ਎⺰

ᡰᜬߢㅒォߒߡ޿ߚޕ

ߘߩ⁁ᴫࠍ৻ᄌߐߖߚߩ߇ޔૐᚲᓧ⠪਎Ꮺะ ߌ૑ቛࡠ࡯ࡦ޿ࠊࠁࠆࠨࡉࡊ࡜ࠗࡓࡠ࡯ࡦߩᄢ

㊂ਇ⦟ௌᮭൻߦ┵ࠍ⊒ߔࠆޔ9

᦬

16

ᣣߩ⸽೛ᄢ ᚻ࡝࡯ࡑࡦ࡮ࡉ࡜ࠩ࡯ࠬߩ⚻༡⎕✋ޔ⛯ߊ㊄Ⲣ

ෂᯏߩⴣ᠄ߢ޽ߞߚޕᩣଔߩᕆㅦߥਅ⪭ޔ☨࠼

࡞ା↪ᄬ჈ߣ޿߁㊄Ⲣෂᯏ߇ޔߚߛߢߐ߃ਇㅘ

᣿ൻߒߟߟ޽ߞߚ☨࿖᥊ᴫߩᕆㅦߥᖡൻߦᜉゞ

ࠍ߆ߌޔડᬺୟ↥ޔ㓹↪ਇ቟ޔ୘ੱ⾗↥ߩᄢ᏷

ߥ⋡ᷫࠅߣޔ☨࿖⚻ᷣߩౝᄖߩା↪ߣ቟ቯ߇ᄢ ߈ߊំࠄߋޕ

ߎ߁ߒߚ⚻ᷣⅣႺ߇ޔߚߛߢߐ߃ਇੱ᳇ߥ

Bush

ᄢ⛔㗔ߣ౒๺ౄߩౝ᡽ᄖ੤ߩᄬ᡽ߦኻߔ ࠆ਎⺰ߩᔶࠅߣㅒ㘑ࠍ᳿ቯߠߌߚߎߣߪ᣿ࠄ߆ ߢޔObama ߪ

9

᦬

16

ᣣએ㒠ߩ਎⺰⺞ᩏߢ޽ߞ ߐࠅߣఝ૏ࠍขࠅᚯߒޔᛩ␿ᣣ߹ߢ৻⽾ߒߡ

McCain

ߣߩᏅࠍ᜛ߍࠆ৻ᣇߣߥߞߚޕታ㓙ޔ಴

ญ⺞ᩏ⚿ᨐߩ㧨⴫㧝㧪߅ࠃ߮㧨⴫㧟㧪ߢߪޔ᥊

ᴫᗵࠍ᷹ࠆੑߟߩᜰᮡߢ޽ࠆޟ࿖ߩ⚻ᷣߩ⃻⁁

ߣవⴕ߈(socio-therapic factors)ޠ߅ࠃ߮ޟ୘ੱߩ

ᙬౕวߩ⃻⁁ߣవⴕ߈(pocketbook issues)ޠߩ෺

ᣇߢޔ⚻ᷣᖱ൓߳ߩᘷᘦ߇ᷓ޿߶ߤ

Obama

ᡰᜬ

߇Ⴧ߃ߡ޿ࠆޕ

ട߃ߡMcCain

߇⚻ᷣ໧㗴ߦ⹦ߒߊߥ޿߁߃ޔ

ᄢ⛔㗔ㆬ᜼࠺ࠖࡌ࡯࠻ߢ

Obama

ߦ⃻࿷ߩ⚻ᷣ

⁁ᴫࠍߤ߁ᕁ߁߆ࠍ⡞߆ࠇޔ

ޟᚒ߇࿖ߩ⚻ᷣߩࡈ

ࠔࡦ࠳ࡔࡦ࠲࡞࠭ߪᒝ޿ޠߣᄬ⸒ߒޔᄬ╉ࠍ⾈

ߞߚޕߘߩᓟޟ☨࿖ߩഭ௛⠪ߪᄢਂᄦߣ޿߁ᗧ

๧ޠߛߣ⸓ᱜߒߚ߇ޔ㉼᣿ߦߥߞߡ߅ࠄߕ৻ጀ

੐ᘒࠍᖡߊߒߚޕ਎⺰⺞ᩏኅ߿

McCain

㒯༡ߦ ߪޔߎߩ਎㑆⍮ࠄߕߩ⚻ᷣᗵⷡ߇ޔ⚻ᷣ╙৻ߩ ㆬ᜼ߢ⥌๮்ߦߥߞߚߣߩ⷗ᣇ߽޽ࠆ

⁵

ޕ

(2)෻Bush

ߣ޿߁ޟᄌ㕟ޠ

☨࿖ᄢ⛔㗔ㆬ᜼⚿ᨐࠍ੍᷹ߔࠆ᡽ᴦ⑼ቇߩࡕ

࠺࡞ߪޔ⃻⡯ᄢ⛔㗔ᡰᜬ₸ޔਈౄߩ᡽ᮭᜂᒰᦼ

㑆ޔGDPᜰᢙޔ਎⺰⺞ᩏ㗄⋡ߩޟ᥊ᴫᗵޠߣ

ޟ࿖ߩᣇะᕈޠ

⁶

ߩ޿ߕࠇ߆ޔ߹ߚߪߘߩ⚵ߺ วࠊߖߢ޽ࠆߎߣ߇ᄙ޿ޕߔߥࠊߜޔᄢ⛔㗔ᡰ ᜬ₸߇ૐߊޔߒ߆߽ਈౄߩ᡽ᮭᜂᒰᦼ㑆߇㐳ߊޔ

⚻ᷣ⁁ᴫ߿࿖ో⥸ߦኻߔࠆ࿖᳃ᗵᖱ߇ᖡ޿߶ߤޔ

᦭ᮭ⠪ߪ᡽ᮭ੤ઍߣ޿߁ޟᄌ㕟ޠࠍᦸߺ߿ߔ޿ޕ

2008

ᐕߪ㧨⴫㧝㧪߇␜ߔࠃ߁ߦޔߎࠇࠄߩߤߩ ᢙሼࠍߺߡ߽⃻⡯߅ࠃ߮᡽ᮭౄߦ᳿ቯ⊛ߦਇ೑

ߥ਎⺰ⅣႺߦ޽ࠅޔታ㓙ޔߎࠇࠄߩ⹏ଔ߇ૐ޿

߶ߤޔObama

ߣ᳃ਥౄ߳ߩᡰᜬ߇Ⴧ߃ߡ޿ࠆޕ

Bush

ᄢ⛔㗔ߣ౒๺ౄߩਇੱ᳇ߪޔࠗ࡜ࠢᚢ੎

ߩ⤔⌕ޔ᡽ᐭߩ⒁ኒਥ⟵ߣ⁛ᢿਥ⟵ޔ࿖㓙␠ળ ߦ߅ߌࠆ☨࿖ߩ࿾૏ૐਅߥߤᄖ੤਄ߩᄬ᡽ߦട ߃ߡޔ

᥊᳇ᓟㅌߣ9

᦬

16

ᣣ㊄Ⲣෂᯏࠍ฽߻☨࿖

⚻ᷣߩା↪ᄬ჈ߦ⥋ࠆ߹ߢᏒ႐ߩ᡼❑ࠍ⸵ߒޔ

੐ᘒࠍ᡼⟎ߒߡ᥸⿛ࠍ੍⷗ߢ߈ߥ߆ߞߚౝ᡽਄

ߩᄬ᡽ߦ޽ࠆޕ

಴ญ⺞ᩏߢߪޔᄢ⛔㗔ࠍᡰᜬߒߥ޿ੱ߶ߤ

Obama

ߦᛩ␿ߔࠆ௑ะ߇ߺࠄࠇޔߐࠄߦ

4

ᐕ೨

ߩㆬ᜼ߢ

Bush

ߦᛩ␿ߒߚੱߩ

2ഀᒙޔ଻቞ᵷ

ߩ

2 ഀޔ౒๺ౄᡰᜬ⠪ߩ㧝ഀޔ਎Ꮺᐕ෼߇ 10

ਁ࠼࡞ࠍ⿥߃ࠆ⵨⑔ߥጀߢߐ߃ߘߩ5ഀ߇ޔ੹

࿁Obama

ᡰᜬߦ࿁ߞߚޕ

(4)

⴫㧝 ᐕᄢ⛔㗔ㆬ᜼಴ญ⺞ᩏߦߺࠆ᦭ᮭ⠪ߩㆬᛯⷐ࿃㧔ో☨ว⸘㧕

ৗ࿚͂ٝ൞஖఼ঠ ஠ఘ㩷䋨䉺䊁100 %

䋩

Obama (

䊣䉮

100%) McCain (

䊣䉮

100%) Q. Bushఱൡႀ঑঵ၚ

ᡰᜬ㧔ᒝߊޔ޿ߊࠄ߆㧕

27 10 89

ਇᡰᜬ㧔߹ߞߚߊޔ߶ߣࠎߤ㧕

72 68 30

Q. ࣭͈༷࢜଻

✚ߓߡᱜߒ޿ᣇะߦ޽ࠆ

20 27 71

߭ߤߊᖡ޿ᣇะߦ޽ࠆ

75 62 36

Q. ड͜ਹါ࣭͈̈́࿚ఴȪˑ͈̠̻̾ౙ֚஖఼ȫ

⚻ᷣ

63 54 44

ࠗ࡜ࠢᚢ੎

10 60 38

࠹ࡠ

9 14 85

ක≮଻㒾

9 74 25

ࠛࡀ࡞ࠡ࡯᡽╷

7 51 46

Q. ြා͈ༀ࣭ࠐफ͈୶̧࣐

ᘷᘦ㧔㕖Ᏹߦޔ޿ߊࠄ߆㧕

85 55 43

ᘷᘦߒߡ޿ߥ޿㧔߹ߞߚߊޔ߶ߣࠎߤ㧕

14 32 66

Q. ࡛ह͈ࠐफܓܥ̦ြා͈ز̤͖̳ࠗ͢ͅ՛גޣ

ᘷᘦ㧔㕖Ᏹߦޔ޿ߊࠄ߆㧕

81 59 39

ᘷᘦߒߡ޿ߥ޿㧔߹ߞߚߊޔ߶ߣࠎߤ㧕

19 35 62

Q. ࢓༞஖఼ષȂ̻̓ͣͬਹণȪౙ֚஖఼ȫ

୥⵬ߩޟ᡽╷ޠ┙႐

59 61 37

୥⵬ߩޟᜰዉജߣ⾗⾰ޠ

39 40 58

Q. ࢓༞஖఼ષȂ͈̓঩ৗͬड͜ਹণȪౙ֚஖఼ȫ

ᔅⷐߥޟᄌ㕟ޠࠍ߽ߚࠄߔ

35 90 9

ޟଔ୯ⷰޠ߇หߓ

30 33 64

ㆡಾߥޟ⚻㛎ޠ߇޽ࠆ

20 7 93

⑳ߩࠃ߁ߥޟᐼ᳃ޠࠍ᳇㆜߁

12 74 24

Q. ࢓༞஖఼ષȂɛɛ͉ਹণ̳ͥါ֦̥

1.

ੱ⒳

YES

㧔ᦨ㊀ⷞⷐ࿃ޔ㊀ⷞⷐ࿃ߩ㧝ߟ㧕

9 55 44

NO

㧔ዊߐߥⷐ࿃ޔ߹ߞߚߊⷐ࿃ߢߥ޿㧕

90 53 45 2.

ᐕ㦂

YES

㧔ᦨ㊀ⷞⷐ࿃ޔ㊀ⷞⷐ࿃ߩ㧝ߟ㧕

16 78 21 NO

㧔ዊߐߥⷐ࿃ޔ߹ߞߚߊⷐ࿃ߢߥ޿㧕

84 48 50 Q. McCain̦ఱൡႀ̹̈́̽ͣͅ

Bush

ᄢ⛔㗔ߣޟหߓޠ᡽╷ࠍߣࠆߛࠈ߁

50 91 7

Bush

ᄢ⛔㗔ߣޟ⇣ߥࠆޠᣇะߦⴕߊߛࠈ߁

46 14 84

Q. ఱൡႀ૖ͅຈါ̈́ȶࠐࡑȷ̦̜͈͉ͥ

Obama

ߛߌ

32 98 1

McCain

ߛߌ

40 3 96

Obama

ߣ

McCain

ߩਔᣇ

19 88 11

ߤߜࠄ߽ߥ޿

8 57 34

Q. ఱൡႀ૖ͅຈါ̈́ȶ฻౯ႁȷ̦̜͈͉ͥ

Obama

ߛߌ

44 97 2

McCain

ߛߌ

36 2 98

Obama

ߣ

McCain

ߩਔᣇ

13 67 32

ߤߜࠄ߽ߥ޿

6 30 55

Q. Obama࢓༞͈੨ଽॐͅచ̳ͥၛ̻պ౾͉

࡝ࡌ࡜࡞ߔ߉ࠆ

41 8 90

ߜࠂ߁ߤࠃ޿

51 94 5

଻቞⊛ߔ߉ࠆ

4 54 40

Q. ਺ͬ༗ခ̳ͥଲఝ

ኅᣖߩ⺕߆߇ޔ㌂ࠍ଻᦭ߔࠆ

42 38 60

ኅᣖߩ⺕߽ޔ㌂ࠍ଻᦭ߒߥ޿

58 65 33

Q. ࢓༞஖఼ષȂMcCain̦Palinͬ໗ఱൡႀ࢓༞

஖̺̭͉ͭ͂

ㆬᛯⷐ࿃ߩ߭ߣߟ

59 48 52

ㆬᛯⷐ࿃ߦߪߥࠄߥ޿

34 69 29

಴ౖ: 2008 Exit polls sponsored by the 2008 National Exit Pool and conducted by Edison Media Research/Mitofsky International.

(5)

Obama

᳃ਥౄ㒯༡ߪޔ

McCain

୥⵬ࠍ

Bush

ᄢ

⛔㗔ߣᄢᏅߩߥ޿̌

McSame

̍

⁷

ޔ

Bush

᡽ᮭߩਃ

ᦼ⋡ߦߔ߉ߥ޿ߣၫᜓߦ᡹᠄ߒߚޕ಴ญ⺞ᩏߢ ߪߎߩਥᒛߦኻߔࠆ⾥ุߪੑಽߒޔޟBush ߣห ߓޠߛߣ⠨߃ࠆ᦭ᮭ⠪ߩ

9ഀޔ

ޟBush ߣߪ㆑߁ޠ ߣᕁ߁ੱߩ

8 ഀᒝ߇ߘࠇߙࠇ ObamaޔMcCain

ߦᛩ␿ߒߡ޿ࠆߣߎࠈࠍ⷗ߡ߽ޔ੹࿁ߩㆬ᜼߇

Bush᡽ᮭ8

ᐕߦኻߔࠆ࿖᳃ᛩ␿ߩᕈᩰࠍᒝߊ߽

ߟߎߣ߇ࠊ߆ࠆޕ

(3)

ෂᯏᤨߩᜰዉ⠪ߩ⾗⾰

੍஻ㆬ᜼ޔ৻⥸ㆬ᜼ࠍㅢߓߡObama

ߩ࡜ࠗࡃ

࡞ߚߜߪ৻⽾ߒߡޔᓐߩ⚻㛎ਇ⿷ࠍ᡹᠄ߒߡ߈

ߚޕߚߒ߆ߦ಴ญ⺞ᩏߢߪޔޟ᡽╷ޠ㧔6

ഀ߇ㆬ

ᛯ㧕ߥࠄ

Obama

ߛ߇ޔ⚻㛎߿ᜰዉജߥߤ ޟ⾗⾰ޠ

(4ഀ߇ㆬᛯ)ߥࠄ߫McCain

ߣ޿߁ㆬᛯ௑ะߪ᣿

ࠄ߆ߛޕ

ߘߩ৻ᣇߢ

Obama

ߪޔߎߩޟ⾗⾰ޠߣ޿߁ẜ

࿷⊛ᒙὐࠍ㒐ᓮߔࠆࡔ࠶࠮࡯ࠫᚢ⇛ߣߒߡޔ߭

ߣߟߪ̌නߥࠆ⚻㛎ࠃࠅ߽ޔᔅⷐߥᄌ㕟ࠍ߽ߚ ࠄߖࠆ߆ߤ߁߆߇ᄢ੐̍̆Obama ߩ৻⥸ㆬ᜼ᦼ

㑆ߩࠠࡖ࠶࠴ࡈ࡟࡯࠭ߪ̌Change We Need

̍̆

ߣ޿߁ࡈ࡟࡯ࡒࡦࠣߢ޽ࠅޔ߽߁߭ߣߟߪ̌ฎ

޿ᤨઍߩ⚻㛎ࠃࠅ߽ޔ⃻࿷ߩෂᯏߦኻಣߢ߈ࠆ

಄㕒ߥ್ᢿജ߇ᄢ੐̍ߣ޿߁⺒ߺᦧ߃ޔ޿ࠊ߫

ޟ⚻㛎ޠࡉ࡜ࡦ࠼ߩౣቯ⟵ߩᚢ⇛ࠍߣߞߚޕ ಴ญ⺞ᩏߢߪޔ ޟᦨ߽㊀ⷞߔࠆ⾗⾰ޠߣߒߡޟᔅ ⷐߥᄌൻࠍ߽ߚࠄߔޠ

(35%)߇ᦨ߽ᄙߊޔߎࠇࠍ

ㆬᛯߒߚ᦭ᮭ⠪ߩ

9ഀ߇Obama

ߦᛩ␿ߒߚޕߒ ߆ߒޟหߓଔ୯ⷰޠ

(30%)ޔޟㆡಾߥ⚻㛎ޠ(20%)

ࠍ᜼ߍࠆੱ߽ዋߥߊߥߊޔ ޟ⚻㛎ޠࠍㆬᛯߒߚ᦭

ᮭ⠪ߩ

9ഀ߇McCain

ߦᛩ␿ߒߚޕ਄⸥ߩࡈ࡟

࡯ࡒࡦࠣᚢ⇛ߪᚑุ⋧ඨ߫ߣ޿߃ࠃ߁ޕ ߘߩඨ㕙ޔ ޟ಄㕒ߥ್ᢿജޠߣ޿߁ࡉ࡜ࡦ࠼ౣ

ቯ⟵ߢߪޔObama

ߩᚢ⇛ߪᚑഞߒߚߣ⠨߃ࠄ ࠇࠆޕ಴ญ⺞ᩏߢᄢ⛔㗔ߦᔅⷐߥޟ⚻㛎ޠࠍ߽

ߟ୥⵬ߣߒߡߪ⏕ ߆ߦޔObama (32%)ࠃࠅ

McCain (40%)ߩᣇ߇ᄙ߆ߞߚ߇ޔޟਔ୥⵬ޠ (19%)

ࠍ฽߼ࠇ߫ޔ᦭ᮭ⠪ߩ

2

ੱߦ

1

ੱߪ

Obama

ߦ⾗ᩰ޽ࠅߣ್ᢿߒߚߎߣߦߥࠆޕ ޟ⚻㛎ޠߢᄢ ߈ߊᏅࠍߟߌࠄࠇߕޔߒ߆߽⃻࿷߅ࠃ߮዁᧪ߩ

ෂᯏߦㆡಾߦኻಣߒߥߌࠇ߫ߥࠄߥ޿ᄢ⛔㗔ߩ

಄㕒ߥޟ್ᢿജޠߣ޿߁ὐߢߪޔObama (44%)

߇

McCain (36%)

ࠍ਄࿁ߞߚޕߒ߆߽ޟ

ਔ୥⵬ޠ

(13%)ߣ╵߃ߚ᦭ᮭ⠪ߪޔ2

ኻ

1

ߩഀวߢ⚿ዪ

Obama

ߦᛩ␿ߒߚߩߛߞߚޕ

ታߪ

9

᦬

16

ᣣએ㒠ޔ

㊄ⲢෂᯏࠍႺߦ਎⺰⺞ᩏ

ߩᡰᜬ߇

Obamaఝ൓ߦࠪࡈ࠻ߒߚߩߪޔ߭ߣߟ

ߦߪ

McCain

ߩᢜᄬޔౕ૕⊛ߦߪㆬ᜼ㆆ⺑ࠍ৻

ᤨ஗ᱛߒߡࡢࠪࡦ࠻ࡦߦᚯߞߚ߇⚿ዪ૗߽ߢ߈ ߕߦ⚳ࠊࠅޔ߹ߚㆬ᜼ㆇേߛߌߢߥߊ୥⵬⠪࠹

࡟ࡆ⸛⺰ળ߹ߢᑧᦼࠍឭ໒ߔࠆߥߤޔ࿖ߩෂᯏ

ߦ㓙ߒߡᗧ๧ߩߥ޿ޔὶὐߩߕࠇߚኻᔕߦ਎⺰

߇಄߿߿߆ߦ෻ᔕߒߚߚ߼ߛߞߚޕ

৻ᣇޔ

Obama

ߪ

9

᦬

26

ᣣߩ╙৻࿁࠹࡟ࡆ⸛

⺰ળߢ⚻㛎ਇ⿷ ᔨࠍᛄ᜞ߔࠆ಄㕒ᴉ⌕ߥᔕኻ

߱ࠅࠍ␜ߒޔᜰዉ⠪ߩ⾗⾰ޔෂᯏኻᔕ⢻ജߩ⹏

ଔࠍ⏕ታߦ㜞߼ߚޕMcCain

ߩ⍴᳇ߐࠍ⇼໧ⷞߔ ࠆჿߪએ೨߆ࠄ޽ߞߚ߇ޔ੹࿁ߪ಄㕒ߥ್ᢿജ

߿ᜰዉജߦ⇼໧ߩჿ߇឴߇ࠅޔࠃࠅ⥌๮⊛ߥ⹏

ଔߣߥߞߚޕ੐ታޔ╙ੑ࿁⸛⺰ળᓟߩWashington Post਎⺰⺞ᩏ⁸

ߢߪޔᄢ⛔㗔ߣߒߡޟ቟ోߥㆬ

ᛯ⢇߆ޔෂ㒾ߩᄙ޿ㆬᛯ⢇߆ޠߣ޿߁⾰໧ߢޔ

McCain

߇

50㧑ߕߟߦഀࠇߚߩߦኻߒޔObama

ߪޟ቟ోޠ(55㧑)ޔޟෂ㒾ޠ(45㧑)ߣޔᒝᄢߥᮭ

㒢ࠍ߽ߟวⴐ࿖ᄢ⛔㗔ߣߒߡߩ⾗⾰⹏ଔࠍᄢ߈ ߊᡷༀߔࠆߎߣߦߥߞߚޕ

ᄢ⛔㗔ㆬ᜼ߢߪޔᱜᄢ⛔㗔୥⵬ߛߌߢߥߊޔ

೽ᄢ⛔㗔୥⵬ߩ⚻㛎߿⾗⾰߽♖ᩏߐࠇࠆޕᄢ⛔

㗔ߦ✕ᕆ੐ᘒ߇↢ߓߚ႐วߦߪޔ೽ᄢ⛔㗔߇හ ᐳߦᄢ⛔㗔⡯ࠍઍⴕߔࠆ⢻ജ߇ߥߌࠇ߫ߥࠄߥ

޿߆ࠄߢ޽ࠆޕ

᳃ਥౄߩ

Biden೽ᄢ⛔㗔୥⵬ߪ㐳ᐕߦࠊߚࠆ

਄㒮⼏ຬߣߒߡߩᄖ੤ౝ᡽⚻㛎ࠍ߽ߜޔ੹࿁ߩ

(6)

᳃ਥౄ੍஻ㆬ᜼୥⵬ߢ߽޽ߞߚߎߣ߆ࠄޔႎ㆏

ᯏ㑐ߪߘߩ⾗⾰ࠍ޿ࠊ߫ᣢᚑ੐㗄ߣߒߡޔ޽ࠄ

ߚ߼ߡ♖ᩏี๧ߔࠆߎߣߪߒߥ߆ߞߚޕ৻ᣇޔ ਛᄩ᡽⇇ߣߪ߶ߣࠎ

ߤή✼ߛߞߚ౒๺ౄߩ

Palin೽ᄢ⛔㗔୥⵬ߪޔ೽ᄢ⛔㗔୥⵬⸛⺰ળߢߩ

߿ࠅߣࠅ߿ਥⷐႎ㆏ᯏ㑐ߩ⋴᧼⸥⠪ߣߩන⁛ࠗ

ࡦ࠲ࡆࡘ࡯ߢᄖ੤࿖㓙໧㗴ߦ㑐ߔࠆή⍮߱ࠅࠍ ߐࠄߌ಴ߒޔMcCain ߣߩ̌Maverick̍㧔ਛᄩ᡽

⇇ߣ〒㔌ࠍ⟎ߊ৻඘⁤㧕ࠦࡦࡆߩ㝯ജࠍඨᷫߔ ࠆߎߣߦߥߞߚޕ

ട߃ߡਥᵹႎ㆏ᯏ㑐ߪޔߎࠇ߹ߢ߶ߣࠎߤ♖

ᩏߐࠇࠆߎߣߩߥ߆ߞߚ

Palin

ߩᬺ❣߿ࡃ࠶ࠢ

ࠣ࡜࠙ࡦ࠼ޔߐࠄߦᓐᅚߩੱᩰ߿ㆬ᜼ㆇേߩ⴩

ⵝઍ߹ߢޔ޽ࠄតߒߦ⁅ᅁߒߚޕ

Palin

ߩ⢻ജ⾗

⾰߳ߩ⇼໧ߪޔᓐᅚࠍ೽ᄢ⛔㗔୥⵬ߦㆬࠎߛ

McCain

ߩ್ᢿജ߳ߩ⇼໧ߦォ឵ߒޔᚢ⇛਄ߩ㊀

ᄢߥࡒࠬ߆ߣ߽⸒ࠊࠇߚޕ

ߒ߆ߒ

Palin

ߪޔ̌

Bridge to Nowhere

̍ߩ᳿߹

ࠅᢥฏߢࠃߊ⍮ࠄࠇࠆߣߎࠈߣߥߞߚ⽷᡽ဋⴧ

ᵷޔዊߐߥ᡽ᐭⷰߩᜬߜਥߢ޽ࠅޔߒ߆߽࠳࠙

ࡦ∝ߩ╙྾ሶࠍਛ⛘ߔࠆߎߣߥߊ಴↥ߒߚࠅޔ

☨࿖ᦨᄢߩ㌂ࡠࡆ࡯࿅૕ޔో☨࡜ࠗࡈ࡞දળߩ ળຬߢ޽ࠆߎߣࠍ౏⸒ߒߚࠅޔ␠ળ଻቞ߣߒߡ

߽଻቞ᵷߩା㗬߇ෘ޿ޕ߹ߚ᳃ਥౄߢߪታ⃻ߒ ߥ߆ߞߚᅚᕈ୥⵬ߢ޽ࠆߎߣ߽ᚻવߞߡޔPalin ߩ⿠↪߇߽ߚࠄߒߚޟPalin ലᨐޠߪޔ౒๺ౄᡰ ᜬၮ⋚ᵴᕈൻߩࡊ࡜ࠬ㕙ߣޔ⚻㛎⼾ንߥ᡽ᮭࠗ

ࡔ࡯ࠫࠍ்ߟߌߚࡑࠗ࠽ࠬ㕙ߩ෺ᣇ߇޽ࠆߎߣ ߪචಽߦ੍ᗐߐࠇࠆޕ಴ญ⺞ᩏߢߪޔ᦭ᮭ⠪ߩ

6ഀ߇૗ࠄ߆ߩ߆ߚߜߢPalin

(1)ޟ౏౒ޠߩౣ↢̆Obama

ߩޟ౒ᗵempathyޠ

ߣޟ⚿᧤unityޠ

New York Times

⚕ߩ଻቞ᵷ⺰ቴߢޔPBS ౏౒

᡼ㅍ߿ABC

࠹࡟ࡆߩ᡽ᴦ⺰⺑ߢ߽᦭ฬߥ

David

Brooks

ߪᛩ␿ᣣᒰᣣߩห⚕ࠦ࡜ࡓ

⁹

ߢޔ☨࿖᳃

ߩ᡽ᐭਇାޔᣢሽߩ᡽ᴦㆇ༡߳ߩਇା̆࠺ࡕࠢ

࡜ࠪ࡯ߘࠇ⥄૕߳ߩਇାߢߪߥ޿̆ߩᩮḮߦޔ

☨࿖␠ળ߇ᛴ߃ࠆߐ߹ߑ߹ߥ⃻ታ⊛߭ߕߺߩሽ

࿷ࠍ␜ໂߒߡ޿ࠆޕ

ߘࠇࠄߩ߭ߕߺߪߟ߹ࠆߣߎࠈޔ㊄ᜬߜఝㆄ

ᷫ⒢߿ᄢડᬺఝవࠍㅢߓߡ̌୘ੱߩ⚻ᷣᵴേߩ

⥄↱̍ߪ㊁᡼ߒߥߩߦޔߘߩ৻ᣇߢᧄ᧪᡽ᐭ߇ 㑐ਈߔߴ߈̌౏౒೑⋉̍ߩ଻㓚ޔߚߣ߃߫቟ቯ ߒߚᐕ㊄ㆇ↪ޔක≮଻㒾೙ᐲޔᢎ⢒ࠪࠬ࠹ࡓޔ ᜬ⛯น⢻ߥ࿾⃿ⅣႺߣࠛࡀ࡞ࠡ࡯ኻ╷ߥߤߩ㕙 ߢߪޔవㅴ࿖ߣߒߡᕯߕ߆ߒ޿߶ߤߦ┙ߜᓟࠇ ߡ޿ࠆޔߣ޿߁☨࿖ߩ⃻ታߘߩ߽ߩߦᩮߑߔޕ

⼾߆ߥߪߕߩ☨࿖ߢޔ᡽ᴦߩਇ᣿ߩߚ߼ߦ̌ᰳ

ਲ̍ߒߡ޿ࠆߩߪޔ

߶߆ߥࠄߧߘߩ౏౒ߢ޽ࠅޔ

Obama

ߩᄌ㕟߇⌀ߦ⋡ᜰߔߣߎࠈߪޔߘߩ౏౒

ࠍ᡽ᐭߣੱޘߩද௛ߦࠃߞߡౣ↢ߔࠆߎߣߢ޽

(7)

ࠆޔߣޕ

߽ߜࠈࠎߎ߁ߒߚ᡽ᴦ⊛⽺࿎ߩ⃻ታࠍޔᱧઍ

᡽ᮭ߽シⷞߒߚࠊߌߢߪߥ޿ޕߒ߆ߒ

Clinton

᡽ᮭߩ㧤ᐕ㑆ߪޔౄᵷኻ┙ߣࠬࠠࡖࡦ࠳࡞ߦ⿷

ࠍߣࠄࠇޔ ᡷ㕟߇ㅴ߹ߥ߆ߞߚޕ౒๺ౄߩ

Bush

᡽ᮭߢߔࠄޔ

2000

ᐕㆬ᜼౏⚂ߢߪޟᕁ޿߿ࠅ޽

ࠆ଻቞ਥ⟵ޠࠍឝߍߡޔᢎ⢒ᡷ㕟ߥߤ࿖ౝ᡽╷

⼏㗴ࠍ㊀ⷞߔࠆߣߣ߽ߦޔ⿥ౄᵷߢࡢࠪࡦ࠻ࡦ ࠕ࠙࠻ࠨࠗ࠳࡯ߩࡉ࡜ࡦ࠼̆

Obama

ޔ

McCain

ߣหߓߥߩߪޔታߦ⊹⡺ߢ޽ࠆ̆ࠍⓍᭂ⊛ߦᄁ ࠅㄟࠎߛޕ

ߣߎࠈ߇ޔ2001 ᐕ

9

᦬

11

ᣣߩหᤨᄙ⊒࠹ࡠ ߣ೽ᄢ⛔㗔

Chaney

ߩᕁᗐ⊛㊁ᦸߩ߅߆ߍߢޔ

Bush

᡽ᮭߪᣂ଻቞ਥ⟵ࡕࡦࠬ࠲࡯ߦᄌりߒޔ࿖

ౝߦ޽ߞߡߪ୘ޘߩ⚻ᷣᵴേߩ⥄↱ࠍ᡼છߔࠆ

৻ᣇߢޔหᕈᇕ߿ਛ⛘ߥߤ␠ળᢥൻ㕙ߢߪ଻቞

⊛ଔ୯ⷰࠍᒝ೙ߒޔ౏౒೑⋉ࠍታ⃻ߔߴ߈᡽ᐭ ߩ⾗Ḯߣᮭ㒢ߩᄙߊࠍޔ⁛ᢿ⊛ߥኻᄖᚢ੎ߢᶉ

⾌ߔࠆߎߣߦߥߞߚޕߘߩ⚿ᨐ☨࿖ߪᄖ੤⊛ߦ

࿖㓙␠ળ߆ࠄቅ┙ߒޔߒ߆߽᡽ᐭ⋙〈ਇ࿷ߩ߹

߹Ꮢ႐ߩ᥸⿛ࠍ⸵ߒߡޔ࿖㓙㊄Ⲣ਄ߩା↪ࠍ߽

৻᳇ߦᄬ߁ߪ߼ߦߥߞߚޕ

ߎ߁ߒߚ⁁ᴫࠍߺߡ߈ߚ☨࿖᳃ߩਇḩߪޔ߽

ߪ߿୘ੱߩᙬౕวޔ㓹↪ਇ቟߿⽺ንᩰᏅߦߣߤ

߹ࠄߥ޿ᄢ߈ߥਇ቟ޔ☨࿖ߩ઀⚵ߺߘߩ߽ߩ߳

ߩෂᯏᗵߦᩮߑߒߡ޿ࠆߣ޿ߞߡ߽ㆊ⸒ߢߥ޿ޕ ㆬ᜼೨ᣣߩ

3

ᣣޔࡢࠪࡦ࠻ࡦ

DC

ߩ࿖ോ⋭ࡊ࡟ࠬ

࠮ࡦ࠲࡯ߢᄖ࿖⸥⠪ะߌߦ⻠⹤ߒߚ

American University

ߩ

Allen Lichtman

ᢎ᝼㧔☨࿖⃻ઍผ㧕

߽ᜰ៰

¹⁰

ߔࠆࠃ߁ߦޔߎߩㆬ᜼߇໧߁ޟᄌ㕟ޠ ߣߪޔ․ቯߩ᡽ᮭ߿᡽╷ߦኻߔࠆ

No

ࠃࠅ߽߽

ߞߣ⨚ᵗߣᄢ߈ߥ߽ߩ߆߽ߒࠇߥ޿ޕ

಴ญ⺞ᩏ⚿ᨐߦࠃࠇ߫ޔ

Obama

ߪޔࠪࡦࠣ࡞

ߪޟฬ⹷(honor)ޠߣ޿

ࠊࠇߡ߈ߚ

¹¹

ޕ☨࿖ᧄ࿯ࠍ㆙ߊ㔌ࠇߚᄙᢥൻߩ

࿾

Hawaii

ߢޔ

ᒰᤨߣߒߡߪᭂ߼ߡ⒘ߥ⇣ੱ⒳㑆

⚿ᇕߦࠃߞߡ↢߹ࠇߚ

Obama

ߦኻߒޔ

ฬ⹷ࠍ㊀

ࠎߓࠆァੱߩฬኅߦ↢߹ࠇߚ

McCainޕObama

߇⥄ࠄߩੱ↢ߩォᯏࠍޔ

Chicago

ߩ⽺᳃㤥ੱዬ

૑඙ߢੱ↢ߦᖡᚢ⧰㑵ߔࠆੱޘࠍ⚵❱ൻߒޔ߅

਄߆ࠄߩ᷷ᖱߢߥߊ⨲ߩᩮߩࡏ࠻ࡓࠕ࠶ࡊߦࠃ

ߞߡ⥄ഥ⊛ߥࠦࡒࡘ࠾࠹ࠖࠍᒻᚑߔࠆᜰዉ⠪ߣ ߒߡߩ૕㛎ߦ⷗޿ߛߒߚߥࠄ߫ޔ৻ᣇ

McCain

ߪޔᔒ㗿ߒߚࡌ࠻࠽ࡓᚢ੎ߢ᝝⯰ߣߥࠅޔㇱਅ ߣߣ߽ߦዮㄗ⊛ߥ෼ኈᚲ↢ᵴࠍㅍߞߚ૕㛎ࠍㅢ ߓߡޔ࿖ߦᄺ઀ߔࠆߎߣߩଔ୯ޔ⪇ޘߒ޿ൟഞ ࠃࠅ߽☨࿖ੱߣߒߡߩฬ⹷ࠍ㊀ࠎߓࠆᔃࠍቇ߮ޔ ߘࠇࠍ᡽ᴦኅߣߒߡߩේὐߦᝪ߃ߚޕ

McCain

ߩ৻⥸ㆬ᜼ࠠࡖࡦࡍ࡯ࡦߩࠠࡖ࠶࠴ࡈ࡟࡯࠭ޔ

̌

County First

̍ 㧔࿖ࠍᦨఝవߦ㧕ߪޔ

ᓐ߇⥄ࠄ૶

๮ߣߒޔ߆ߟ࿖᳃ߦᦸ߻߽ߩ߇૗ߢ޽ࠆ߆ࠍޔ

┵⊛ߦ⴫⃻ߒߡ޿ࠆޕ

↢޿┙ߜ߿ォᯏߣߥࠆ⚻㛎ࠍㅢߓߡⴊ⡺ൻߐ ࠇߚᄢ⛔㗔ߩࠬ࠲ࠗ࡞ߪޔ᡽ᮭߩࠦࡦ࠮ࡊ࠻߿

᡽╷ߦ෻ᤋߐࠇࠆޕ

Obama

߇ਛᄩ᡽⇇ߩᣂᤊߣ ߒߡᵈ⋡ߐࠇࠆ߈ߞ߆ߌߣߥߞߚ

2004

ᐕ᳃ਥ

ౄᄢળߩᓐߩၮ⺞Ṷ⺑ߢߪޔߘߩᓟߩ

Obama

ࠠࡖࡦࡍ࡯ࡦߩޟ߭ߣߟߩ☨࿖ޠࡆ࡚ࠫࡦޔੱ

⒳߿⠨߃ߩ⇣ߥࠆੱޘ߳ߩ౒ᗵߣ⚿᧤ߩ⸷߃ࠍ

␜ߔ᦭ฬߥߊߛࠅ߇޽ࠆ¹²

ޕ

ޟࠕࡔ࡝ࠞߩ㐳ᄢߥᱧผ‛⺆ߩਛߦߪ߽߁߭ߣߟ

ߩⷐ⚛ޔߔߥࠊߜޔࠊࠇࠊࠇߪ⊝ޔ߭ߣߟߩ࿖᳃

(8)

ߣߒߡ⚿߫ࠇߡ޿ࠆߣ޿߁ାᔨ߇޽ࠆ࡮࡮࡮ࠪࠞ

ࠧධㇱߦᢥሼߩ⺒߼ߥ޿ሶߤ߽߇޿ߚߣߒߚࠄޔ ߘࠇߪ⑳ߦߣߞߡ㊀ᄢߥ໧㗴ߥߩߢߔޔߚߣ߃ߘ ࠇ߇⑳ߩሶߤ߽ߢߥߊߡ߽ޕ࡮࡮࡮ߘࠇߪၮᧄ⊛ߥ

ାᔨߢ޽ࠅޔߘࠇ߇ߎߩ࿖ࠍᯏ⢻ߐߖߡ޿ࠆߩߢ ߔޕߘࠇߎߘ߇น⢻ߦߒߡ޿ࠆ߽ߩߥߩߢߔޔࠊ ࠇࠊࠇ߇୘ޘੱߩᄞࠍㅊ᳞ߒߥ߇ࠄ߽ߥ߅ޔ߭ߣ ߟߩࠕࡔ࡝ࠞߩኅᣖߣߒߡ࿅⚿ߔࠆߣ޿߁ߎߣ ࠍޕޠ

ޟࠊࠇࠊࠇࠍಽᢿߐߖࠃ߁ߣḰ஻ࠍㅴ߼ߡ޿ࠆੱ

ߚߜ߇޿߹ߔޕ࡮࡮࡮⑳ߪ੹ᄛޔᓐࠄߦߎ߁⸒޿߹

ߔޔ࡝ࡌ࡜࡞ߥࠕࡔ࡝߽ࠞ଻቞⊛ߥࠕࡔ࡝߽ࠞ޽

ࠅߪߒߥ޿̆޽ࠆߩߪࠕࡔ࡝ࠞวⴐ࿖ߥߩߛߣޕ 㤥ੱߩࠕࡔ࡝߽ࠞ⊕ੱߩࠕࡔ࡝߽ࠞ࡜࠹ࡦ♽ߩࠕ ࡔ࡝߽ࠞࠕࠫࠕ♽ߩࠕࡔ࡝߽ࠞ޽ࠅߪߒߥ޿̆޽

ࠆߩߪࠕࡔ࡝ࠞวⴐ࿖ߥߩߛߣޕ࡮࡮࡮ࠊࠇࠊࠇߪ 㕍޿Ꮊ㧔ᵈ㧦᳃ਥౄఝ൓ߩᎺ㧕ߦ߅޿ߡ߽ޡ⥋㜞 ߩ␹ޢࠍፏ᜙ߒߡ޿ࠆߒޔ⿒޿Ꮊ㧔ᵈ㧦౒๺ౄఝ

൓ߩᎺ㧕ߦ߅޿ߡ߽ㅪ㇌ᝡᩏቭ߇࿑ᦠ㙚ߢ޽ࠇߎ ࠇ߆߉߹ࠊࠆߎߣࠍᅢ߹ߥ޿ߩߢߔ࡮࡮࡮ࠗ࡜ࠢ

ߦ߅ߌࠆᚢ੎ߦ෻ኻߒߚᗲ࿖⠪߽޿ࠇ߫ޔߘࠇߦ

⾥ᚑߒߚᗲ࿖⠪߽޿߹ߔޕࠊࠇࠊࠇߪ߭ߣߟߩ࿖

᳃ߢ޽ࠅޔࠊࠇࠊࠇ⊝߇ᤊ᧦ᣛߦᔘ⺈ࠍ⹿޿ޔࠊ ࠇࠊࠇ⊝߇ࠕࡔ࡝ࠞวⴐ࿖ࠍ቞ߞߡ޿ࠆߩߢߔޕޠ

Obama

߇౏⚂ߩ㊀ⷐߥᩇߣߒߡޔ⚻ᷣᩰᏅ߿

ᢎ⢒ᩰᏅߥߤޔߐ߹ߑ߹ߥ☨࿖␠ળࠍಽᢿߔࠆ

੉ⵚߩୃᓳߦࠃࠆ☨࿖ߩౣ↢ޔ߭ߣߟߩ☨࿖ߦ ኻߔࠆᏗᦸࠍ␜ߔࠃ߁ߦޔ

McCain

ߪ࿖㓙␠ળߦ ߅޿ߡฬ⹷޽ࠆ࿾૏ࠍ࿁ᓳߒޔ߹ߚ࠹ࡠߦዮߖ ߕޔ࿖㒐ߦ߅޿ߡំࠆ߉ߥ޿ᒝ޿☨࿖ࠍ⋡ᜰߒ ߚޕ

߻ࠈࠎ౒ᗵ߿ฬ⹷ߛߌߢޔ໧㗴߇⸃᳿ߔࠆࠊ

ߌߢߪߥ޿ߒޔ☨࿖ߩᛴ߃ࠆ߭ߕߺ߇⸃ᶖߔࠆ ࠊߌߢ߽ߥ޿ޕߚߣ߃߫࿖㓙㑐ଥߢ޿߃߫ޔ

McCain

ߩᣂ࿖㓙ㅪ⋖⚵❱ޟ᳃ਥਥ

⟵࿖ㅪ⋖

(League of Democracies)ޠ⸳┙ߩឭ໒ߪޔ࿖㓙ද

⺞ߩ઒㕙ࠍ߆߱ߞߡ޿ࠆ߇ޔታᘒߪ⿥ᄢ࿖☨࿖

ߩਥዉߦࠃࠆ૕೙ᄌ㕟ࠍߨࠄ߁ᣂ଻቞ਥ⟵ߩ὾

߈⋥ߒߦߔ߉ߥ޿ߣ޿߁⷗ᣇ߽޽ࠆߒޔObama ߩ౒ᗵ߽ޔᱜ૕ߩࠊ߆ࠄߥ޿࠹ࡠ⚵❱߿☻᥸ߥ

ᢜኻ࿖ኅߣ߽ή᧦ઙߢኻ⹤ߔࠆޔߣ޿ߞߚᄢ↞

ߩޟࡈࠔࡦ࠲ࠫ࡯ޠ(Bill Clinton)ߦߔ߉ߕޔ̌ᄖ

੤ቭߥࠄߣ߽߆ߊޔ࠲ࡈߥ┙႐ࠍߣࠆߎߣ߽ᔅ

ⷐߥᄢ⛔㗔ߣߒߡߪ⪭╙̍ߣ⷗ࠄࠇࠆߎߣ߇ዋ ߥߊߥ߆ߞߚ

¹³

ޕ

ߒ߆ߒߘࠇߢ߽ޔ ޟ☨࿖ߪޔࠗࠬ࡜ࡓ࿤ߩ࿖߽

฽߼ߡ਎⇇߆ࠄߤ߁⷗ࠄࠇߡ޿ࠆ߆ࠍ⍮ࠆᔅⷐ ߇޽ࠆޠ

(Chuck Hegel਄㒮⼏ຬ)ߒޔ࿖㓙ද⺞ߩ

ℂᗐਥ⟵ߣ಄ᔀߥࡊ࡜ࠣࡑ࠹ࠖ࠭ࡓߩࡃ࡜ࡦࠬ

ࠍߣࠅޔ࿖㓙␠ળߩ౏౒ߦ⽸₂ߔࠆߎߣ߇ޔ☨

࿖ᄖ੤ߩᣂߚߥࡆ࡚ࠫࡦߢ޽ࠅޔ⋡ᜰߔߴ߈ᄌ 㕟ߩᣇะᕈߢ޽ࠆޕౝ᡽߽ߒ߆ࠅߢ޽ࠆޕ࡛࡯

ࡠ࠶ࡄ␠ળ᳃ਥਥ⟵ߩવ⛔ࠍ߽ߚߕޔߐ߹ߑ߹

ߥ⑳⋉߇ᒙ⡺ᒝ㘩ߩ┹੎ේℂߢߖ߼߉޽߁⃻ઍ ߩ☨࿖ߢޔฎઍࠡ࡝ࠪࡖߩືቇ⠪

Aristotle

߇᡽

ᴦߩ୶ℂߣ⠨߃ߚ̌౏౒ༀ̍ߩታ⃻ࠍ߼ߑߒޔ

಄ᔀߥ⃻ታਥ⟵⠪ߢታ〣ဳᕁ⠨ߩᜬߜਥߢ߽޽

ࠆߣ޿߁

Obama

߇ឬߊታ⃻ߩࠪ࠽࡝ࠝߪ޿߆

ߥࠆ߽ߩߥߩ߆ޕߘࠇߪ߹ߛࠊ߆ࠄߥ޿߇ޔዋ ߥߊߣ߽᳃ਥౄᄢળᦨ⚳ᣣޔฎઍࠡ࡝ࠪࡖ␹Ლ ߩ౞ᩇࠍਗߴߚደᄖࠬ࠲ࠫࠕࡓߩ⥰บ਄ߢޔ⧯

߈

J.F. Kennedy

ࠍᓌᓓߣߐߖࠆḩຬߩ⡬ⴐߩ೨ ߢᜰฬฃ⻌Ṷ⺑ࠍ߅ߎߥ߁ߣ߈ޔ

Obama

ߦߣߞ ߡ᡽ᴦ⋡ᮡ㆐ᚑߦߥߊߡߪߥࠄߥ޿ᦨ㊀ⷐߩⷐ

⚛̆ో☨ߩ࿖᳃ߦะߌߡޔ

Obama

ߩ౒ᗵߣ⚿᧤

ߩ๭߮߆ߌߦᔕ߃౏౒ༀߩߚ߼ߦദജߔࠆࠃ߁ ߦ㥏⥰ߔࠆߎߣ̆߇ޔߪߞ߈ࠅߣᗧ⼂ߐࠇߡ޿

ߚߦ㆑޿ߥ޿ޕ

(2)Ⓧᭂ᡽ᐭⷰ߳ߩォ឵

᦭ᮭ⠪ߣ᡽ᐭߩ㑐ଥߦ߅ߌࠆᄌൻࠍ␜ߔ߽߁

৻ߟߩ஥㕙ߪޔ☨࿖᦭ᮭ⠪ߩ᡽ᐭⷰߩᄌൻߢ޽

ࠆޕ 㧨⴫㧞㧪ߦ␜ߒߚࠃ߁ߦޔ

1994

ᐕએ㒠ߩਛ

(9)

㑆ㆬ᜼ߣᄢ⛔㗔ㆬ᜼ߦ߅ߌࠆ಴ญ⺞ᩏߩޟ᡽ᐭ

ⷰޠߩផ⒖ࠍߺࠆߣޔ

1994

ᐕએ᧪ߪߓ߼ߡ

2008

ᐕߢߪޔ

(a)ޟ᡽ᐭߪ᳃㑆ડᬺ߿୘ੱߦછߖࠆᣇ

߇⦟޿ߎߣࠍᄙߊ߿ࠅߔ߉ࠆޠ㧔ዊߐߥ᡽ᐭⷰޔ

޽ࠆ޿ߪᶖᭂ᡽ᐭⷰ㧕ࠃࠅ߽ޔ(b)ޟ᡽ᐭߪ⻉໧

㗴ࠍ⸃᳿ߔࠆߚ߼ߦ߽ߞߣᄙߊߩߎߣࠍߔߴ ߈ޠ 㧔ᄢ߈ߥ᡽ᐭⷰޔ޽ࠆ޿ߪⓍᭂ᡽ᐭⷰ㧕ߩᣇ ߇਄࿁ߞߚޕ

ߎߩ಴ญ⺞ᩏ⚿ᨐߩᄌൻߪޔ

2008

ᐕߦ࿕᦭ߩ

⃻⽎ߢ޽ࠈ߁߆ޕ9 ᦬

16

ᣣએ㒠ߩޟ100 ᐕߦ৻

ᐲߩෂᯏޠ

(Greenspan

೨

FRB

⼏㐳

)

ޔᧂᦦ᦭ߩ ᄢਇᴫߣᄢ㊂ᄬᬺਇ቟ߩߚ߼ߦޔੱޘߩ᡽ᐭߦ ࠃࠆ㑐ਈޔ᥊᳇ೝỗ╷ࠍᦸ߻ჿ߇ᒝ߹ߞߚߎߣ ߪ⏕߆ߢ޽ࠈ߁ޕߒ߆ߒ৻ᣇߢޔ ޟዊߐߥ᡽ᐭⷰޔ

޽ࠆ޿ߪᶖᭂ᡽ᐭⷰޠߣޟᄢ߈ߥ᡽ᐭⷰޔ޽ࠆ

޿ߪⓍᭂ᡽ᐭⷰޠߣߩᏅ㧔a-b㧕ߪޔ1994 ᐕએ

㒠৻⽾ߒߡ❗ዊߒߡ޿ࠆޕ

․ߦ

1996

ᐕ߆ࠄ

2000

ᐕߦ߆ߌߡޔ☨࿖ߪ

Clinton

᡽ᮭߩ߽ߣߢ߆ߟߡ ߥ޿ᅢ᥊᳇ࠍ⚻㛎ߒߡ޿ࠆޕߘࠇߦ᜔߽ࠊࠄߕޔ

ਇᴫᦼߩ1994

ᐕߣᲧߴߡ߽ޔޟᄢ߈ߥ᡽ᐭⷰޔ

Ⓧᭂ᡽ᐭⷰޠ߇Ⴧ߃ޔ

Reagan

᡽ᮭએ㒠ߩ☨࿖਎

⺰ߩầᵹߛߞߚޟዊߐߥ᡽ᐭⷰޠߣߩᏅ߇❗߹

ߞߡ޿ࠆߩߢ޽ࠆޕ

1929

ᐕ☨ᩣᑼᏒ႐ߩᄢ᥸⪭ࠍᒁ߈㊄ߦ☨࿖

ߪᄢᕟᘓߦ⓭౉ߒޔ

1932

ᐕᄢ⛔㗔ㆬ᜼ߢᓧ␿₸

57

㧑ߣ޿߁࿶ୟ⊛ᡰᜬࠍᓧߡᄢ⛔㗔ߦዞછߒߚ

᳃ਥౄߩ

F. D. Roosevelt

ߪޔTennessee

Ꮉᵹၞ㐿

⊒౏␠ (TVA) ⸳┙ࠍ฽߻᡽ᐭਥዉߩᄢⷙᮨ᥊

᳇ೝỗ╷ޔᄬᬺኻ╷ࠍታᣉߒߚޕ޿ࠊࠁࠆNew Deal

᡽╷ߢ޽ࠆޕ

1935

ᐕߦߪޔ☨࿖ߢೋ߼ߡᐕ

㊄߿ᄬᬺ଻㒾ߥߤߩ␠ળ଻㓚߇೙ᐲൻߐࠇߚޕ

߹ߚ

1964

ᐕㆬ᜼ߢᓧ␿₸

61㧑ߣ޿߁ㆊඨᢙᆔ

છࠍᓧߚ᳃ਥౄ

Lyndon Johnson

ᄢ⛔㗔ߩ

Great

Society

᭴ᗐߪޔ 㜞㦂⠪࡮ૐᚲᓧጀࠍኻ⽎ߦߒߚ

౏⊛ක≮೙ᐲ㧔

Medicare, Medicaid

㧕ࠍታ⃻ߐߖ ߚޕ޿ࠊࠁࠆ☨࿖ߩ̌ᄢ߈ߥ᡽ᐭ̍ޔ Ⓧᭂ⊛᡽ᐭ 㑐ਈߩᤨઍߢ޽ࠆޕ

ߒ߆ߒ

1981

ᐕߦዞછߒߚ౒๺ౄ

Reagan

ᄢ⛔

㗔ߪޔ ޟ᡽ᐭߪ໧㗴ߩ⸃᳿╷ߢߪߥ޿ޕ᡽ᐭߎߘ ߇໧㗴ߥߩߛޠߣ᦭ฬߥṶ⺑ࠍⴕ޿ޔ᧲⷏಄ᚢ ਅߢ㒐ⴡࠍჇᒝߔࠆ৻ᣇޔ࿖ౝߢߪⷙ೙✭๺ߣ

ᷫ⒢ޔ᡽ᐭᡰ಴೥ᷫࠍᢿⴕߔࠆ޿ࠊࠁࠆᣂ⥄↱

ਥ⟵ޔ̌ዊߐߥ᡽ᐭ̍ᡷ㕟ࠍㅴ߼ߚޕߎࠇએᓟޔ

☨࿖ߩ਎⺰ߪ̌ዊߐߥ᡽ᐭ̍ⷰ߇ਥᵹߣߥࠆޕ

1993

ᐕ᳃ਥౄᄢ⛔㗔ߣߒߡ

Clinton

߇ዞછߒ ߚ߇ޔ೨ᐕߩㆬ᜼ߢㆊඨᢙᆔછࠍᓧߥ߆ߞߚਇ

቟ቯߥ᡽ᮭߪޔ᡽ᐭᓎഀߩ᜛ᄢࠍᦸ߹ߧ౒๺ౄ

ߦേ߈ࠍኽߓࠄࠇޔ౏⚂ߩ᡽ᐭਥᐙߩ࿖᳃⊝଻

㒾೙ᐲߩ⸳┙ࠍ㒖ᱛߐࠇߚ߫߆ࠅ߆ޔ

1994

ᐕਛ

㑆ㆬ᜼ߢ᳃ਥౄ߇ᄢᢌޔ⼏ળᡰ㈩ജࠍᄬߞߚޕ

ߎࠇߦᙼࠅߚ

Clinton

ߪޔ1996 ᐕౣㆬᓟߪฝߢ

(b)

᡽ᐭߪޔ⻉໧㗴ࠍ⸃᳿ߔࠆߚ߼ߦ

߽ߞߣᄙߊߩߎߣࠍߔߴ߈

54 77 21 46 47 43 44 42

(a)

㧙

(b)

㧙㧙㧙㧙11 㧗㧗3 㧗㧗㧗㧗㧗㧗6 㧗㧗㧗㧗9 㧗㧗㧗㧗12 㧗㧗17 㧗㧗

㩷 ಴ౖ䋺2008 Exit polls sponsored by the 2008 National Exit Pool and conducted by Edison Media Research/Mitofsky International .

㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷

Handout at the American Enterprise Institute’s Election Watch 2008, Session 10, November 6, 2008, Washington, DC.

(10)

ޟᄢ߈ߥ᡽ᐭߩᤨઍߪ⚳ࠊߞߚޠߣߩት⸒ߤ߅ ࠅޔᓐߪᏒ႐ߣ᳃㑆ߩᵴജࠍᵴ߆ߒߟߟޔ␠ળ

଻㓚ࠍ฽߻᡽ᐭᡰ಴ߩ⷗⋥ߒࠍⴕ޿ޔ

̌ᄢ߈ߥ᡽

ᐭ߆ޔዊߐߥ᡽ᐭ߆̍ߣ޿߁ੑಽᴺߢߥߊޔㆡ ᱜⷙᮨߩല₸⊛ߥ᡽ᐭㆇ༡ࠍ⋡ᜰߒߚޕ

㧨⴫㧞㧪ߩ࠺࡯࠲ߪޔߎߩ

Clinton

ᤨઍ߆ࠄ

Bush

౒๺ౄᤨઍޔߘߒߡ

2008

ᐕߩ

Obama߳ߣ

ߟߥ߇ࠆޕ

Obama

ߪㆬ᜼ߢㆊඨᢙᆔછࠍ₪ᓧߒ ߡ߅ࠅޔ⼏ળ߽᳃ਥౄਥዉޔ਎⺰ߩ᡽ᐭⷰߩᄌ ൻߣޔ ̌ᄢ߈ߥ᡽ᐭ̍

߳ߩ࿁Ꮻߩ᧦ઙߪឥߞߡ޿

ࠆࠃ߁ߦ߽ߺ߃ࠆޕታ㓙

Obama

ߪޟ

1950

ᐕઍ એ᧪ߩᄢⷙᮨߥ␠ળၮ⋚ᛩ⾗ޠࠍ⴫᣿ޔᣂ᡽ᮭ

ߩ⽷᡽಴േߪ

2

ᐕ㑆ߢ৻ళ࠼࡞ 㧔⚂

90

ళ౞㧕ߦ

ㄭߠߊน⢻ᕈ߽޽ࠆߣ޿߁ޕ

৻ᣇ

Obama

ᣂ᡽ᮭߪޔᓟㅀߔࠆࠃ߁ߦޔ

ᓸᅱ

ߥਛ㆏〝✢ࠍߣࠆߣߺࠄࠇߡ޿ࠆޕߚߣ߃߫ޔ

㓹↪300ਁੱߩഃ಴ࠍ⋡ᮡߣߒߟߟ߽ޔ᡽ᐭ⋥

༡ߩ౏౒੐ᬺߦࠃࠆ㓹↪ߢߪߥߊޔ᳃㑆ߩᣂ੐

ᬺޔᛛⴚ㐿⊒߳ߩ⒢೙ఝㆄࠍ฽߻↥ᬺ⢒ᚑ࡮ᅑ ബ╷ౖ̆ဳ⊛ߦߪޔᄥ㓁శ⊒㔚ߥߤౣ↢น⢻ࠛ

ࡀ࡞ࠡ࡯߳ߩᛩ⾗ࠍᅑബߔࠆޔ޿ࠊࠁࠆ̌Green

New Deal

㧔✛ߩౝ㔛㧕̍̆ࠍㅢߓߡޔ 㜞޿ᛛⴚജ

ߣ↢↥ᕈߣ࿖㓙┹੎ജࠍ߽ߚࠄߔޔ᳃㑆ਥዉߩ

↥ᬺ᭴ㅧォ឵ࠍ⁓ߞߡ޿ࠆߣ⠨߃ࠄࠇࠆ¹⁴

ޕ

ߟ߹ࠅ

Obama

ᣂ᡽ᮭߩ⋡ᜰߔߣߎࠈߪޔ̌ᄢ

߈ߥ᡽ᐭ̍ߣ޿߁ࠃࠅ߽̌Ⓧᭂ᡽ᐭ̍ߣ޿߁ࠦ

ࡦ࠮ࡊ࠻ߦㄭ޿ߣᕁࠊࠇࠆޕ᡽ᮭ߇ࠗ࠾ࠪࠕ࠹

ࠖࡉࠍขࠅޔ᳃㑆ᵴജࠍ㥏⥰ߒߟߟታ⃻ߔࠆޟ౏

౒ޠߣߪޔ␠ળ⊛ࠗࡦࡈ࡜ᢛ஻ޔᣂᤨઍߦㆡߒ ߚࠛࡀ࡞ࠡ࡯㐿⊒ޔ㜞ᐲᛛⴚޔᣂ↥ᬺߩ⢒ᚑߣ

㓹↪ഃ಴ߦࠃࠆ☨࿖↥ᬺ᭴ㅧߩౣ↢ߢ޽ࠆߣߺ

ࠄࠇࠆޕ

᦭ᮭ⠪ߩ᡽ᐭⷰߩᄌൻ߇ޔ ̌ᄢ߈ߥ᡽ᐭ̍

߳ߩ

࿁Ꮻߢߥߊ̌Ⓧᭂ᡽ᐭ̍ᡰᜬࠍᗧ๧ߔࠆ߆ߤ߁

߆ߪޔ߹ߛ⃻Ბ㓏ߢߪࠊ߆ࠄߥ޿ޕߒ߆ߒޔ᡽

ᐭߩ⋥ធ⊛ߥ⽷᡽េഥࠍᔅⷐߣߒߥ޿ਛ㑆ጀ࡮

ን⵨ጀࠍ฽߼ߡ

Obama

߇ㆊඨᢙᆔછࠍᓧߚ੹

ߎߘޔⓍᭂ᡽ᐭ̆౏౒ߩౣ↢ߩߚ߼ߦޔ᡽ᐭ߇ ᣇะᕈߣࡆ࡚ࠫࡦࠍ␜ߒޔ᳃㑆ᵴജࠍᦨᄢ㒢ߦ

↢߆ߔ̆ߦࠃࠆ☨࿖ߩᄌ㕟ߩᅢᯏߢ޽ࠆߎߣߪ

⏕߆ߛޕ

ౝ᡽ߛߌߢߪߥ޿ޕ

Obama

㒯༡ߩਥᏨᚢ⇛ኅ

Axelrod

߇⸒߁ࠃ߁ߦޔޟࠗ࡜߽ࠢޔ⚿ዪߪ⚻ᷣ

ߩ໧㗴ޠߢ޽ࠅޔߒ߆߽̌☨࿖⊒̍ߩ࿖㓙㊄Ⲣ

ෂᯏ߇ߘ߁ߢ޽ࠆࠃ߁ߦޔ࿖㓙⚻ᷣߩⴕᣇ߽☨

࿖ߩᣢሽߩ઀⚵ߺߦᐢ߇ࠆ߶ߎࠈ߮ࠍߤ߁ߔࠆ ߆ߣ޿߁࿖ౝ᡽ᴦ໧㗴ߦᏫ⌕ߔࠆޕ᧲⷏ኻ᳿ߩ

ᤨઍ߇

Reagan

ᄢ⛔㗔ࠍᔅⷐߣߒߚࠃ߁ߦޔ

Obama

ߪ☨࿖ߩᛮᧄ⊛ߥᄌ㕟ࠍᔅⷐߣߔࠆ̌ᤨ

ઍ̍ߦޔⴕ᡽ߩ㐳ߣߒߡޔ߹ߚ࿖᳃ߩ࠴ࠕ࡝࡯

࠳࡯ߣߒߡㆬ߫ࠇߚᄢ⛔㗔୥⵬ߛߣ߽޿߃ࠆޕ

ߎࠇࠄߩᗧ๧ߦ߅޿ߡޔ

2008

ᐕᄢ⛔㗔ㆬ᜼⚿ᨐ ߇␜ߔ᦭ᮭ⠪ߩࡔ࠶࠮࡯ࠫߪޔන⚐ߥ

Bush

⃻

᡽ᮭ߳ߩ

No߿ޔᄢⷙᮨߥ᥊᳇ᶋ឴╷߿Ꮢ႐ⷙ

೙╷ߥߤ

Obama

᡽ᮭߩᣂߒ޿⚻ᷣᣉ╷ߦኻߔ

ࠆ࿖᳃ߩㆊ೾ߥ߹ߢߩᦼᓙᗵߦߣߤ߹ࠄߥ޿ޔ

☨࿖ߩᩮᧄ⊛ᄌ㕟߳ߩࠧ࡯ࠨࠗࡦߛߞߚߣ⠨߃ ࠄࠇࠆߩߢ޽ࠆޕ

㧞 ᄌൻߔࠆᡰᜬጀߣㆬ᜼࿾࿑̆࠲࡯ࠥ࠹

ࠖࡦࠣߣࡐ࡚ࠫࠪ࠾ࡦࠣߩᚑุ

2008

ᐕㆬ᜼ߦ߅ߌࠆ

Obama

ᡰᜬߪޔ᦭ᮭ⠪

ጀࡊࡠࡈࠖ࡯࡞߅ࠃ߮ㆬ᜼࿾࿑ߦ߅޿ߡޔߎࠇ

߹ߢߦߥ޿ᐢ߇ࠅߣᄙ᭽ᕈࠍߺߖߡ޿ࠆޕߘߩ

․⦡ࠍಽᨆߔࠆߎߣߦࠃߞߡޔ৻ᣇߩ୥⵬ߥ޿

ߒ᡽ౄߦ᦭೑ਇ೑ߦ௛߈߁ࠆ࿕᦭ߩⅣႺ᧦ઙ 㧔SWOT ಽᨆߢ޿߁

Opportunities

ߣ

Threats¹⁵

㧕 ߣߣ߽ߦޔฦ୥⵬ߣ᡽ౄߩ࠲࡯ࠥ࠹ࠖࡦࠣ߅ࠃ

߮ࡐ࡚ࠫࠪ࠾ࡦࠣ㧔┙ߜ૏⟎㧕ߩᚢ⇛ᚑุࠍᬌ

⸛ߔࠆߎߣ߇น⢻ߦߥࠆޕ߹ߚޔߎࠇࠄߩ⚿ᨐ

ߪᣂ᡽ᮭߩᡰᜬၮ⋚ߩᐢ߇ࠅߣ㒢⇇ޔ᦭ᮭ⠪ㅪ

วߩน⢻ᕈ߽␜ໂߔࠆߢ޽ࠈ߁ޕ

(11)

2-1 ᦭ᮭ⠪ጀߩࠪࡈ࠻

㧨⴫㧟㧪ߪ

2008

ᐕߣㆊ෰ߩᄢ⛔㗔ㆬ᜼ߦ߅ ߌࠆ᳃ਥౄ୥⵬߳ߩᡰᜬផ⒖ࠍޔฦᐕߩ಴ญ⺞

ᩏ⚿ᨐࠍ߽ߣߦޔ᦭ᮭ⠪ࡉࡠ࠶ࠢߏߣߦᲧセߒ ߚ⴫ߢ޽ࠆޕᦨᏀࠞ࡜ࡓߩ̌Share of Electorate̍

ߪޔਥⷐߥ᦭ᮭ⠪ዻᕈࠞ࠹ࠧ࡝࡯ߦ߅ߌࠆฦጀ ߩᛩ␿⠪᭴ᚑ₸㧔࠲࠹

100%㧕ࠍ⴫ߔޕߎߩࠪ

ࠚࠕ㧑߇㜞޿߶ߤޔߘߩጀߩേะ߇ᛩ␿⚿ᨐࠍ

Ꮐฝߔࠆޕᦨฝࠞ࡜ࡓߪޔ

2004ޔ2008

ㆬ᜼ᐕߩ

᳃ਥ࡮౒๺ਔ୥⵬ߩጀ೎࡮₪ᓧᓧ␿₸㧔࡛ࠦ

100%㧕ߢ޽ࠆޕ

ᰴߦ̌

DEM Gains from 4 Years Ago

̍ߪޔ᳃ਥ

ౄ୥⵬߇㧠ᐕ೨ߩ᳃ਥౄ୥⵬ߣᲧߴߡޔߤߩጀ ߢ␿ࠍჇ߿ߒߚ߆㧔ࡑࠗ࠽ࠬߪޔ

ᷫዋ㧕ࠍ⴫ߔޕ

̌DEM Advantage to GOP in the Year̍ߪޔหߓㆬ

᜼ᐕߩ᳃ਥౄ୥⵬߇౒๺ౄߩኻ┙୥⵬ߦᲧߴߡޔ

ߤߩጀࠍᄙߊ㧔ࡑࠗ࠽ࠬߪޔዋߥߊ㧕₪ᓧߒߚ

߆ࠍ␜ߔޕ

ߎߩ⴫߆ࠄޔએਅߩࠃ߁ߥ⚿ᨐ߇ᓧࠄࠇࠆޕ

(1)

ዻᕈᏅࠍ⿥߃ߚ

Obama

ᡰᜬ

¹⁶

“Obama over McCain 08”㧔2008

ᐕߩ

Obama

ߣ

McCain

ߩᡰᜬᲧセ㧕ࠍߺࠆߣޔ

ࡑࠗ࠽ࠬߢ␜ߐ

ࠇߚਥߥ

McCainఝ૏ߩጀߪޔ⊕ੱޔධㇱޔㇺ

Ꮢㇱએᄖޔ౒๺ౄᡰᜬ⠪ޔ଻቞ᵷޔ65

ᱦએ਄ޔ 4

ᐕ೨ߦᲧߴߡ୘ੱ⽷᡽⁁ᴫ߇ᖡൻߒߡ޿ߥ޿

ጀޔ⊕ੱࡊࡠ࠹ࠬ࠲ࡦ࠻ޔᢎળߦࠃߊⴕߊጀޔ

ᣢᇕ⠪ߢ޽ࠆޕ

ㅒߦ޿߃߫ޔߎࠇࠄߩጀࠍ㒰ߊߣޔਥⷐߥዻ ᕈࠞ࠹ࠧ࡝࡯ߩ߶ߣࠎߤߩࠞ࡜ࡓߦ߅޿ߡޔ

Obama

߇ఝ૏ߦ┙ߞߚߎߣ߇ࠊ߆ࠆޕߣߊߦ

Obama

ߩఝ൓߇⋡┙ߟጀߪޔ 㤥ੱࠍೋ߼ߣߔࠆ

ࡑࠗࡁ࡝࠹ࠖޔਛ⷏ㇱߣ⷏ㇱޔᄢਛⷙᮨߩㇺᏒޔ

ήౄᵷጀ(independents) ޔਛ㆏ޔ⧯ᐕ࡮㕍ᐕጀ 㧔18-29

ᱦޔ30-44ᱦ㧕ޔޟೋ߼ߡᛩ␿ߒߚ᦭ᮭ⠪

(first-time voters)ޠޔᄢቇ㒮තߥߤ㜞ቇᱧጀޔࠞ࠻

࡝࠶ࠢ߿࡙࠳ࡗᢎߥߤࡊࡠ࠹ࠬ࠲ࡦ࠻એᄖߩା

ઔࠍ߽ߟጀޔᧂᇕ⠪ߢ޽ߞߚޕ

(2)᳃ਥౄౝߩޟ⚿᧤ޠ̆᳃ਥౄᡰᜬጀ߅ࠃ߮

Hillary

ᡰᜬጀ

᡽ౄᡰᜬ೎ߦߺࠆߣޔ᳃ਥౄᡰᜬጀߩ

9ഀ߇

Obama

ࠍᡰᜬߒޔ

4

ᐕ೨ߣ߶߷ห᳓Ḱߢ޽ࠆޕ

᳃ਥౄᡰᜬ⠪ߩ̌⚿᧤̍᳓Ḱߪ৻⷗หߓߦߺ߃ ࠆ߇ޔߎߎߢ㊀ⷐߥߩߪޔ᡽ౄᡰᜬ೎ᛩ␿⠪᭴

ᚑ₸ߩᄌൻߢ޽ࠆޕ4 ᐕ೨ߣᲧߴࠆߣޔ౒๺ౄ

ᡰᜬ߇

37

㧑߆ࠄ

32

㧑ߦᷫࠆ৻ᣇޔήౄᵷጀ߇

26%߆ࠄ29%ߦޔ᳃ਥౄᡰᜬ߇37%߆ࠄ39%ߦ

Ⴧ߃ߡ޿ࠆޕObama

߇ήౄᵷጀߦ߅޿ߡ

McCain

ࠃࠅ߽

8ࡐࠗࡦ࠻࡝࡯࠼ߒߡ޿ࠆὐࠍ૬ߖࠆߣޔ

᳃ ਥ ౄ ᡰ ᜬ

ጀ

߅ ࠃ

߮

ή ౄ

ᵷ ጀ

ߢ ߪ ޽ ࠆ ߇

Obama

ߦᅢᗵࠍ߽ߟጀ߇ޔᛩ␿⠪ో૕ߩߥ߆ߢ

߆ߥࠅჇടߒߚߎߣ߇ࠊ߆ࠆޕ

߹ߚ

Obama

ߩ৻⥸ㆬ᜼ߦ߅ߌࠆ࠲࡯ࠥ࠹ࠖ

ࡦࠣ਄ߩ⺖㗴ߩ߭ߣߟߪޔ᳃ਥౄ੍஻ㆬ᜼ߢ

Hillary Clinton

ࠍᡰᜬߒߚጀޔౕ૕⊛ߦߪޔ

⊕ੱ

ᅚᕈޔ⊕ੱૐᚲᓧഭ௛⠪

¹⁷

ޔ㜞㦂⠪ޔࡅࠬࡄ࠾

࠶ࠢޔ

ࠞ࠻࡝࠶ࠢ߇Obama

ᡰᜬߦ࿁ࠆ߆ߤ߁߆ ߢ޽ߞߚޕ⚿ᨐߪޔ

⊕ੱૐᚲᓧጀࠍ଀ᄖߣߒߡޔ

᭎ߨ

Hillaryጀࠍ଻ᜬߢ߈ߚߣ޿߃ࠃ߁ޕ

ᅚᕈጀߪ

McCain

ࠃࠅ߽

13ࡐࠗࡦ࠻ᄙߊ₪ᓧ

ߒޔᱧઍߩ᳃ਥౄ୥⵬ߣᲧߴߡ߽㆖⦡߇ߥ޿ޕ

2004

ᐕߩ

Kerry

᳃ਥౄ୥⵬߇

Clinton

ᤨઍ߆ࠄ

ᄬߞߚಽࠍขࠅᚯߒߡ޿ࠆޕߎߩ⴫ߦߪᦠ߆ࠇ

ߡ޿ߥ޿߇ޔ

⊕ੱߩ↵ᅚ೎ࡉ࡟࡯ࠢ࠳࠙ࡦߢߪޔ

4

ᐕ೨ߩ

Kerry

ᡰᜬߣᲧߴߡޔ⊕ੱ↵ᕈߢ+4%ޔ

⊕ੱᅚᕈߢ+2%Ⴧ߃ߡ߅ࠅޔObama

߇ߣߊߦ⊕

ੱᅚᕈࠍᄬߞߚߣߪ޿߃ߥ޿ޕ

ߘߩ߶߆ޔૐᚲᓧጀޔࡅࠬࡄ࠾࠶ࠢޔࠞ࠻࡝

࠶߽ࠢ࿶ୟ⊛ߦ

Obama

ᡰᜬߦ࿁ߞߡ޿ࠆޕߚߛ ߒ㜞㦂⠪ߦ㒢ߞߡ⸒߃߫ޔ

2004

ᐕߣᐕ㦂ࠞ࠹ࠧ

࡝࡯඙ಽ߇⇣ߥࠆߚ߼᣿⏕ߦߪ⸒߃ߥ޿߇ޔ4

ᐕ೨ߩ᳓Ḱࠃࠅߪ⧯ᐓᡰᜬࠍᒙ߼ߡ޿ࠆޕߎࠇ

(12)

ߪޔObama ߣ

McCainਔ୥⵬ߩᐕ㦂Ꮕ߇੎ὐߩ

߭ߣߟߦߥߞߚߚ߼ߢ߽޽ࠈ߁ޕ

(3)̌⧯޿ࠕࡔ࡝ࠞ̍ߩᡰᜬߣ̌Bradley

ലᨐ̍

Bush

߆ࠄ

Obama߳ޔMcCain

ߢߥߊ

Obama

ࠍޔߣ޿߁☨࿖᡽ᴦⅣႺߩᣂᣥ੤ઍࠍ⽎ᓽ⊛ߦ

⴫⃻ߔࠆߩߪޔ߭ߣߟߪᡰᜬጀߩᐕ㦂ߢ޽ࠆޕ ߣߊߦ

18 ᱦ߆ࠄ 29 ᱦߩ⧯޿ጀߩᡰᜬߪޔ McCain

ߣ

38ࡐࠗࡦ࠻ߩᏅࠍߟߌޔ4

ᐕ೨ߣᲧ

ߴߡ߽14ࡐࠗࡦ࠻߽Ⴧ߃ߡ޿ࠆޕ30ᱦ߆ࠄ44 ᱦߩ㕍ᐕ࡮ਛᐕጀ߽Obama

ᡰᜬ௑ะ߇ᒝ޿ߎߣ ߪ᣿⏕ߢ޽ࠆޕߎࠇࠄߩᐕ㦂ጀߩᛩ␿⠪Ყ₸ߪ

⚂

5ഀߢޔ

㜞㦂ൻߩㅴ߻ᣣᧄߣߪ߆ߥࠅ⇣ߥࠅޔ

ߛ߆ࠄ⊕ੱጀ߇᳃

ਥౄ߆ࠄ㔌ࠇߚߣߪ޿߃ߥ޿ޕ෻㕙ޔ㤥ੱጀࠍ ߪߓ߼ޔࡅࠬࡄ࠾࠶ࠢ߿ࠕࠫࠕ♽ߥߤࡑࠗࡁ࡝

࠹ࠖߩᡰᜬߪ

4

ᐕ೨ߣᲧߴߡ㗼⪺ߦჇടߒߡ޿

ࠆޕ߹ߚ☨࿖᦭ᮭ⠪ੱญ਄ޔࡑࠗࡁ࡝࠹ࠖߣߊ ߦࡅࠬࡄ࠾࠶ࠢߩჇടߪ㗼⪺ߢ޽ࠅޔߘࠇߪᛩ

␿⠪᭴ᚑ₸ߦ߅ߌࠆࡑࠗࡁ࡝࠹ࠖߩࠪࠚࠕ᜛ᄢ ߦ߽⃻ࠇߡ޿ࠆ̆

Obama

㒯༡߇᜛ᄢߔࠆࡑࠗ

ࡁ࡝࠹ࠖੱญߩേຬߦᚑഞߒߚߣ߽޿߃ࠆޕ ߎࠇࠄߩ ⧯޿ጀޔ

ࡑࠗࡁ࡝

࠹ࠖࠍ฽߼ߡ

Obama

(4%)

ߣ⠨߃ࠆ

ੱߩ⚂ඨᢙ߇

Obama

ᡰᜬߦ࿁ߞߡ޿ࠆޕߎߩ⚿

ᨐߩ⸃㉼ߪᓸᅱߢ޽ࠆ߇ޔ߭ߣߟߦߪ੍஻ㆬ᜼

⚳ੌᓟޔ

Obama

ߩ┙ߜ૏⟎߇ਛ㆏ነࠅߦࠪࡈ࠻

ߒߚߚ߼ߢ޽ࠆߣᕁࠊࠇࠆޕ

ߘߩ߶߆ߦ᡽╷਄ߩ┙ߜ૏⟎ߦ㑐ࠊࠆ⾰໧ߢ

ߪޔ

Obama

ߩ⒢೙ᡷ㕟߅ࠃ߮⽷Ḯ᩺̆᦭ᮭ⠪ߩ

95%ࠍභ߼ࠆ਎Ꮺᐕ෼ 25 ਁ࠼࡞એਅߩ਎Ꮺߢ

ᷫ⒢ޔߘࠇએ਄ߪჇ⒢̆ߣ㑐ࠊࠆ⾰໧㗄⋡ߣߒ

ߡޔ

ᚲᓧ᳓Ḱ߇޽ࠆޕᐕ෼10ਁ࠼࡞એ਄ߩ਎Ꮺ

(ᛩ␿⠪᭴ᚑ₸26%)ߢ߽ޔMcCain

ߣᏅ߇ߥߊޔ

4

ᐕ೨ߩ

Kerry

୥⵬ߣᲧセߒߡ߽

8ࡐࠗࡦ࠻ᡰ

ᜬࠍિ߫ߒߡ޿ࠆޕ

ㅒߦޔ

ޟ୘ੱ⽷᡽߇ᖡൻߒߚ ߆ߤ߁߆ޠߩᣇ߇ᛩ␿ⴕേߦᓇ㗀ߒߡ߅ࠅޔ

Obama

ߩ⚻ᷣ᡽╷ߩ⹦⚦ߪޔ⋥ធ⊛ߦߪᡰᜬਇ

ᡰᜬߦᓇ㗀ࠍ෸߷ߐߥ߆ߞߚࠃ߁ߛޕ

߹ߚ

Obama

߇৻⥸ㆬ᜼ߢᒝ⺞ߒߚ㜞╬ᢎ⢒

᥉෸ផㅴ᡽╷ߦߟ޿ߡߪޔ18ᱦએਅߩሶߤ߽ࠍ

߽ߟ᦭ᮭ⠪(40%)ߩᡰᜬ߇

McCain

ࠃࠅ

8ࡐࠗࡦ

࠻ᄙߊޔ4

ᐕ೨ߣᲧセߒߡ߽

8ࡐࠗࡦ࠻Ⴧടߒ

(13)

⴫ 㧟 ᳃ ਥ ౄ ᄢ ⛔ 㗔 ୥ ⵬ ߦ ኻ ߔ ࠆ ਥ ⷐ ᦭ ᮭ ⠪ ࡉ ࡠ ࠶ ࠢ ߩ ᡰ ᜬ ផ ⒖ ߅ ࠃ ߮ ౒๺ ౄ ୥ ⵬ ᡰ ᜬ ߣ ߩ Ꮕ

(14)

㪁㩷㪘㪾㪼㩷㪞㫉㫆㫌㫇㩷䈱䉦䊁䉯䊥䊷䈲䇮㪉㪇㪇㪏ᐕ಴ญ⺞ᩏ 䈎䉌䇮䇸㪋㪌㪄㪍㪋䇹 ᱦ 䇮䇸㪍㪌 ᱦએ਄ 䇹䈮 ᄌᦝ䈘䉏䈢䇯㩷 ಴ౖ 㧦

2008 Exit Polls sponsored by the 2008 National Exit Pool and conducted by Edison Media Research/Mitofsky International and 2004 Exit Polls conducted by Edison/Mitofsky; 1996 Voter News Service exit polls; 1992 Voter Research and Survey exit polls in "Portrait of the Electorate", NYT, 11/10/96; and 2000 Voter News Service exit polls in "Who Voted: A Portrait of American Politics, 1976-2000", NYT, 11/12/00. 2000 VNS data (13,279 voters, 300 polling places nationwide). 1996 VNS data (16,627 voters). 1992 Voter Research and Surveys data (15,490 voters). 1988-1976 based on NYT/CBS News Surveys (11,645; 9,174; 15,201; 15,300).

䈖䈱 ⴫ 䈲䇮਄ ⸥ 䈱 ฦᐕ಴ ญ⺞ᩏ⚿ᨐ 䉕䉅䈫䈮 ╩ ⠪ 䈏 ⁛⥄ 䈮 ૞ ᚑ 䈚䈢䉅䈱䈪䈅䉍䇮 ήᢿォタਇน 䇯

(15)

ߡ߅ࠅޔߎࠇߦߟ޿ߡߪޔ৻ቯ⒟ᐲᓇ㗀߇޽ߞ ߚ߽ߩߣផኤߐࠇࠆޕ

(5)ᢥൻ੎ὐߦ߅ߌࠆ੉ⵚ

෻㕙ޔObama ࠃࠅ߽

McCain

ᡰᜬߦ࿁ࠆ᳿ቯ

⊛ⷐ࿃ߣߒߡޔ ᢥൻ੎ὐޔߣߊߦ㌂଻᦭ߩ᦭ήޔ

ቬᢎᔃߩ◊ߐޔหᕈᗲ⠪߆ߤ߁߆ߥߤ߇ᓇ㗀ߒ

ߡ޿ࠆߎߣߪήⷞߢ߈ߥ޿ޕ⚻ᷣ߿ᄖ੤߇᥉ㆉ

⊛੎ὐߢ޽ߞߚߩߦᲧߴߡޔߎࠇࠄߪ߶ߣࠎߤ ߩ᦭ᮭ⠪ߦ᳿ቯ⊛ᓇ㗀ࠍ෸߷ߐߥ޿ޕߒ߆ߒ࿾

ၞߦࠃߞߡޔ߹ߚធᚢߩⅣႺߢߪޔ⏕ታߦᓧ␿

₸ޔേຬ₸ߦ㑐ଥߔࠆ߁߃ޔᣂ᡽ᮭߩ⥽ขࠅᰴ

╙ߢߪޔߎࠇࠄߩ໧㗴߇᡽ᮭߩࠗࡔ࡯ࠫ߿ޔ

୘ޘ

ߩ᡽╷߅ࠃ߮᡽ᴦㆇ༡ో૕ߦᄢ߈ߊ㑐ࠊߞߡߊ ࠆน⢻ᕈ߇޽ࠆޕ

⊕ੱࡊࡠ࠹ࠬ࠲ࡦ࠻ߪᛩ␿⠪᭴ᚑ₸ 54㧑ࠍ

භ߼ޔ4

ᐕ೨ߩ

Kerry

୥⵬ߦᲧߴࠇ߫߹ߒߢߪ

޽ࠆ߽ߩߩޔଐὼߣߒߡ౒๺ౄ୥⵬߳ߩᡰᜬߦ

Ყߴߡ

30%ࡐࠗࡦ࠻એ਄Ꮕࠍߟߌࠄࠇߡ޿ࠆޕ

ㅳߦ৻ᐲએ਄ᢎળߦⴕߊጀߢ߽ޔ12ࡐࠗࡦ࠻Ꮕ

ߢ޽ࠆޕ߹ߚޔߎߩ⴫ߦߪߥ޿߇ޔ⊕ੱࡊࡠ࠹

ࠬ࠲ࡦ࠻ߩ߁ߜඨᢙએ਄ࠍභ߼ޔᛩ␿⠪ో૕ߩ 26㧑ࠍභ߼ࠆ⊕ੱ⑔㖸ᵷᢎᓤ(white Evangelical Christians)

ߦߥࠆߣޔߐࠄߦ

Obama

ᡰᜬ₸ߪૐ ਅߔࠆޕߎࠇࠄߩੱޘߩਛߦ޿ࠊࠁࠆޟቬᢎฝ

ᵷޠ߇฽߹ࠇࠆޕ

㌂ࠍ଻᦭ߔࠆ਎Ꮺߪ㧨⴫㧝㧪ߢ␜ߔࠃ߁ߦޔ ᛩ␿⠪ߩ

4ഀએ਄߅ࠅޔ଻᦭ߒߥ޿਎Ꮺߩ᦭ᮭ

⠪ߦᲧߴࠆߣ㧞ኻ㧝ߩഀวߢ౒๺ౄᡰᜬߦ࿁ߞ ߡ޿ࠆޕ߹ߚหᕈᗲ⠪ߪ࿶ୟ⊛ߦ᳃ਥౄᡰᜬߢ

޽ࠆߎߣߦᄌࠊࠅߪߥ޿߇ޔ

Obama

߇․ߦߎߩ

੎ὐࠍᒝ⺞ߒߥ߆ߞߚߎߣ߽ᚻવ޿ޔ4

ᐕ೨ߩ

Kerry

ߣᲧߴࠆߣޔ߆ߥࠅᡰᜬࠍᷫࠄߒߡ޿ࠆޕ

2-2 ㆬ᜼࿾࿑ߩࠪࡈ࠻

㧨⴫㧠㧪ߪ

1960

ᐕએ㒠ߩᄢ⛔㗔ㆬ᜼୥⵬ߩ

Ꮊ೎ ޟ৻⥸ᓧ␿₸(popular votes, PV)ޠ߅ࠃ߮ ޟㆬ

᜼ੱ₪ᓧᢙ

(electoral votes, EV)

ޠߩផ⒖ࠍ৻ⷩߒ ߚ߽ߩߢ޽ࠆޕᄢ⛔㗔ㆬ᜼ߪ

Maine

Ꮊߥߤߏߊ

৻ㇱߩᎺࠍ଀ᄖߣߒߡ߶ߣࠎߤߩᎺ߇ޟൎ⠪ో

ขࠅ(winner-takes-all)ޠߩࠪࠬ࠹ࡓࠍขߞߡ޿ࠆ

ߚ߼ޔ৻␿ߢ߽ᄙߊߩ

PV

ࠍᓧߚ୥⵬߇ޔߘߩ Ꮊߩ߽ߟ

EV

ోㇱࠍ₪ᓧߔࠆߎߣߦߥࠆޕߚߣ߃

߫2008

ᐕߢߪޔ৻⥸ᓧ␿₸ߢߪ᳃ਥౄ(D) 53㧑 ߦኻߒ౒๺ౄ

(R) 46%

ߢ޽ߞߚ߇ޔㆬ᜼⚿ᨐࠍ᳿

߼ࠆㆬ᜼ੱ₪ᓧᢙว⸘ߢߪޔ᳃ਥౄ

365

ੱߦኻ ߒ౒๺ౄ

173

ੱߣᄢᏅ߇ߟ޿ߚޕਔ୥⵬߳ߩᡰ ᜬߢ⦡ಽߌߒߚㆬ᜼࿾࿑ࠍߺࠆߣޔ

Obama

ᡰᜬ ߪో☨ฦᎺߦ߹ߚ߇ࠅޔⷞⷡ⊛ߦ޿߃߫౒๺ౄ

ᡰᜬߪ☨࿖࿾࿑ߩ⌀ࠎਛㇱಽ߆ࠄ

L

ߩሼဳߦ

̌߿ߖ⚦ߞߚ̍ޕ

2004

ᐕ߆ࠄ

2008

ᐕߦ߆ߌߡޔ౒๺ౄ߆ࠄ᳃

(North CarolinaޔFloridaޔVirginia)ޔ⷏ㇱ(ColoradoޔNevadaޔ New Mexico)

ޔਛ⷏ㇱ

(Indiana

ޔ

Iowa

ޔ

Ohio)

ߣޔ

᳃ਥౄᡰᜬߪో☨ోၞߦᐢ߇ߞߡ޿ࠆޕㆬ᜼ੱ

ᢙߩᄙ޿ᄢᎺߪ

Texas

એᄖߔߴߡ

Obama

ᡰᜬߣ ߥࠅޔߘߩߥ߆ߦߪ᳃ਥౄ੍஻ㆬ᜼ߢ

Hillary

ᡰ ᜬߩᄙ߆ߞߚ

PennsylvaniaޔOhioޔMichigan

߇ ฽߹ࠇߡ޿ࠆޕ

ㆬ᜼ᓟߩฦႎ㆏ᯏ㑐ߩಽᨆߪޔᎺࠃࠅ߽ዊߐ

ߥ㇭

(county)

ࠍන૏ߦⴕࠊࠇߡ޿ࠆߩߢޔએਅߢ

ߪߘࠇࠄߩႎ๔

¹⁹

ࠍ߽ߣߦޔߎ߁ߒߚᡰᜬᄌൻ ߩ⢛᥊ࠍᬌ⸛ߔࠆޕ

(1)

ᣂ᦭ᮭ⠪ੱญ߇Ⴧടߔࠆ⷏ㇱ

2008

ᐕߩ․ᓽߩ߭ߣߟߪޔ

⷏ㇱߣߊߦߎࠇ߹

ߢ౒๺ౄ߇ᒝ߆ߞߚౝ㒽ධ⷏ㇱߢߩ

Obama

ᡰ ᜬჇߢ޽ࠆޕ

ߘߩ⢛᥊ߣߒߡޔᦨ߽㊀ⷐߥߩߪ⊕ੱ࡮

ࡑࠗࡁ

(16)

࡝࠹ࠖࠍ໧ࠊߕޔ᡽ౄᡰᜬߩ᣿⏕ߢߥ޿ᣂ᦭ᮭ

⠪ੱญߩᄢ㊂ᵹ౉߇޽ࠆޕߘࠇ߇ᦨ߽㗼⪺ߛߞ ߚߩߪ

Nevada

ߣ

Colorado

ߢޔߣߊߦ

Colorado

ߢߪ

Denver

ߪߓ߼ㇺᏒㇱ߳ߩ⧯޿⊕ੱ㜞ቇᱧ

ࡎࡢࠗ࠻ࠞ࡜࡯ጀߩᵹ౉߇ޔߎߩᎺߩ㇠ᄖߦᄙ

ߊ૑߻ቬᢎฝᵷߩ౒๺ౄᡰᜬࠍಒ㚧ߒߚޕߎߩ

ੑᎺߢߪޔObama

㒯༡߇ᣧᦼ߆ࠄߩ⚵❱ൻߣᾲ ᗧ޽ࠆࡏ࡜ࡦ࠹ࠖࠕߦᡰ߃ࠄࠇߡޔߎࠇࠄᣂⷙ

᦭ᮭ⠪ߩ␿㓸߼ߢఝ૏ߦ┙ߞߚޕ

Pew Research Center

ߩޟ☨࿖ੱߩ⒖േޠႎ๔

²⁰

ߦࠃࠆߣޔㄭᐕޔ⷏ㇱߣධㇱߪߣߊߦઁᎺ߆ࠄ ߩੱญᵹേ߇Ⴧടߒߡ޿ࠆޕߎߩੱญᵹേࠍ෻

ᤋߒޔᎺ⼏ળ߅ࠃ߮ㅪ㇌ਅ㒮ߢ᳃ਥౄ⼏ຬᢙ߇

ㄭᐕჇടߒߡ޿ࠆߎߣ߽ޔ᳃ਥౄࡉ࡜ࡦ࠼ߩᶐ

ㅘߦߟߥ߇ߞߚߣߐࠇࠆޕ

߹ߚ

Nevada

ߪ㜞ᄬᬺ₸߿૑ቛᏅߒ᛼ߐ߃₸

߇㜞ߊޔ⚻ᷣ⊛ߦ∋ᑷߒߡ޿ࠆߎߣ߆ࠄޔ

Obama

ߩߣߊߦ⚻ᷣ᡽╷ߦ߅ߌࠆᄌ㕟ࡔ࠶࠮࡯ࠫ߇⸷

᳞ߒߚߣᕁࠊࠇࠆޕ

(2)̌ᣂߒ޿ධㇱ̍ߣ㤥ੱጀ

2008

ᐕㆬ᜼⚿ᨐߢޟ᳃ਥౄߩᱧผ⊛ൎ೑ޠߣ

޿߃ࠆᄌൻߪޔධㇱߣߊߦ̌New South̍㧔ᣂߒ

޿ධㇱ㧕ߣ๭߫ࠇࠆޔᲧセ⊛⧯ߊ㜞ቇᱧߢ㜞ᚲ ᓧޔධㇱ಴りߢߥ޿ੱญߩᄢ㊂ᵹ౉߇⋡┙ߟ

North Carolina

ߣ

Virginia

ߢ⷗ࠄࠇࠆޕട߃ߡർ

ㇱ

Virginia

ߪࡑࠗࡁ࡝࠹ࠖੱญߩᄢ㊂ᵹ౉߇᳃

ਥౄᡰᜬ௑ะࠍᒝ߼ߚޕ

߹ߚධㇱో૕ߩ㤥ੱᛩ␿₸ߩ਄᣹ߦട߃ޔ

Florida

ߢߪߣߊߦ

Obama

㒯༡ߩ

Tampa

ߥߤࡑ

ࠗࡁ࡝࠹ࠖੱญߩ

ᄙ޿ᄢㇺᏒߢߩ

♖ജ⊛⚵❱ൻ

²¹

߇ഞࠍᄼߒޔᛩ␿⠪ᢙߪᎺో૕ߢ

10㧑ㄭߊჇട

ߒߡ߅ࠅޔߎߩᄙߊ߇ᣂⷙ᦭ᮭ⠪ߢ᳃ਥౄᡰᜬ ߦ࿁ߞߚޕ߹ߚหᎺߩ㜞ᄬᬺ₸ޔ૑ቛᏅߒ᛼ߐ ߃ઙᢙߩ㜞ߐߥߤ⚻ᷣ໧㗴߽ޔ

Obama߳ߩㅊ޿

㘑ߣߥߞߚޕ

(3)↥ᬺਛ⷏ㇱࠍ∋ᑷߐߖࠆ⚻ᷣⅣႺ

߽߁߭ߣߟߩ

2008

ᐕㆬ᜼࿕᦭ߩ․⦡ߪޔ ᱧผ

⊛ߦ̌ᚢ⇛⊛㊀ὐᎺޔ

ធᚢᎺ(battleground states)̍

ࠍᄙߊ฽߻ਛ⷏ㇱߩേะߦ޽ࠆޕਛ⷏ㇱߪ᡽ᴦ

ࠗ࠺ࠝࡠࠡ࡯਄ߢߪޔ᳿ߒߡᏀነࠅߢߪߥߊޔ ޟᓸᅱߥਛ㆏(sensible center)ޠߣ޿ࠊࠇޔߘߩ

ᤨޘߢ㘑ะ߈ࠍᄌ߃ࠆޕ

੹࿁ߩㆬ᜼ߢߎߩ࿾ၞ߇ Obama

ᡰᜬߦ࿁ߞ ߚߩߪޔ

Bush

⚻ᷣᄬ᡽ߦኻߔࠆᔶࠅߣޔ

Obama

ߩᄌ㕟ࡔ࠶࠮࡯ࠫߢ޽ࠆޕߣߊߦ̌Rust Belt

states

̍ߣ޿ࠊࠇࠆ↥ᬺਛ⷏ㇱޔ⵾ㅧᬺഭ௛⠪ߩ

ᄙ޿OhioޔMichiganޔIndiana

ߢߪޔ ૗චਁੱ߽

ߩ⵾ㅧᬺഭ௛⠪߇ᄬᬺߒޔ⚻ᷣ߇᳿ቯ⊛ߦᓇ㗀 ߒߚߣᕁࠊࠇࠆޕߐࠄߦ

Iowa

ߢߪ᳃ਥౄ੍஻ㆬ

᜼એ᧪ߩ

Obama

ߩ࿕޿⨲ߩᩮ⚵❱߇ࡈ࡞Ⓙ௛

ߒߚޕ߹ߚ

Illinois

ߪ

Obama

ߩ࿾⋚ߣߒߡ୘ੱ

⊛㓸␿߇࿕߆ߞߚޕ

(4)․⦡޽ࠆઍ⴫⊛㇭ߩേะ

᦭ᮭ⠪᭴ᚑߩ․ᓽߏߣߦޔ

2008

ᐕߦᦨ߽ߘߩ

․ᓽࠍᒝߊ߽ߟ

100

ߩઍ⴫⊛㇭ߩᡰᜬ௑ะࠍ

2004

ᐕߣᲧセߒߚಽᨆ

²²

ߦࠃࠆߣޔᰴߩࠃ߁ߥ

௑ะ߇ߺࠄࠇߚޕߎߩಽᨆߢ߽ޔ࿾ၞߏߣߩߐ

߹ߑ߹ߥ․ᕈߩ㆑޿ࠍ⿥߃ߡ

Obama

᳃ਥౄᡰ ᜬ߇Ⴧ߃ߡ޿ࠆߎߣ߇ࠊ߆ࠆޕ଀ᄖߪޔ⊕ੱૐ

ᚲᓧጀߢޔ౒๺ౄᡰᜬ߇᣿⏕ߦߥߞߡ޿ࠆޕ Ԙ2000

ᐕ߆ࠄ

2007

ᐕߦ߆ߌߡᦨ߽ੱญ߇Ⴧ߃

ߚ

Obama=61%

McCain=38%߳ޔ᳃ਥౄᡰᜬ߇Ⴧޕ