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明海大学マクロ経済学：影山純二(学生用)
国債の中立命題： 拡張的財政政策と、それに伴う国債残高増加の効果を考える
•将来の増税を予想しない場合(人々は将来を予想しない) 政府 民間 全体
現在 G↑ S↑, C↑ 景気↑ 将来 T↑ S↓, C↓ 景気↓
–結論：財政政策に効果がある → 国債の中立命題が成立しない(国債に基づく財政政策は景気に対して中立でない)
•将来の増税を予想した場合(将来の増税に備え現在の貯蓄を増やし現在の消費を減らす)
政府 民間 全体
現在 G↑ S↑, C↓ 景気変化なし 将来 T↑ S↓, C変化なし 景気変化なし
–結論：財政政策は効果がない → 国債の中立命題が成立する(国債に基づく財政政策は景気に対して中立である)
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