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: HIV AIDS .*:3,0ῌ3-- +33- - Chin J, Lwanga SK : Estimation and projection of adult

AIDS cases : a simple epidemiological model. Bull WHO 03:-33ῌ.*0,+33+.

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/ Anderson RM, Medley GF, May RM, Johnson AM : A preliminary study of the transmission dynamics of the human immunodeﬁciency virus (HIV), the causative agent of AIDS. IMA J Math Appl Med Biol-:,,3ῌ,0-, +320.

0 United Nations, World Health Organization ed. : The AIDS Epidemic and its Demographic Consequences. UN Pub, New York,+33+.

1 /01 $#2: 345467AIDS89:;<:=>?@A BCDEF -.0:30/ῌ31/ +33+

2 Morio S, Soda K, Hashimoto S, Fukutomi K, Ichikawa S, Kamakura M, Nakayama H : Simulation of the heterosexual HIV/AIDS epidemic in Japan by a fuzzy mathematical model. Yonago Acta Medica-3:2-ῌ32, +330.

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+* Matsuyama Y, Hashimoto S, Ichikawa S, Nakamura Y, Kidokoro T, Umeda T, Kamakura M, Kimura S, Fukutomi K, Ikeda C, Kihara M : Trends in HIV and AIDS based on HIV/AIDS surveillance data in Japan.

Int J Epidemiol,2:++.3ῌ++//,+333.

++ Vernazza PL, Eron JJ, Fiscus SA, Cohen MS : Sexual transmission of HIV : infectiousness and prevention.

AIDS+-:+//ῌ+00,+333.

+, Holmberg SD, Horsburgh CR, Ward JW : Biological Factors in the sexual transmission of human im- munodeﬁciency virus. J Infect Dis+0*:++0ῌ+,/,+323. +- &'( &PQ R2S TUV! 0WG XWY Z/[\ ]^_ $`aQ

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+2 Hashimoto S, Matsumoto T, Nagai M, Matsuyama Y, Nakamura Y, Umeda T, Kamakura M, Ichikawa S, Kimura S, Fukutomi K, Kihara M : Delays and contin- uation of hospital visits among HIV-infected persons and AIDS cases in Japan. J Epidemiol+*:0/ῌ1*,,***. +3 Hammer SM, Squires KE, Hughes MD, Grimes JM,

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,, CDC : Trends in sexual risk behaviors among high school students²United States,+33+ῌ+331. MMWR-0: 1.3ῌ1/,,+332.

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Attempt at Long-term Prediction of the Numbers of HIV-infected Persons and AIDS Cases in Japan Using System Analysis

Shuji H

^ASHIMOTO⁺^῍

, Kazuo F

^UKUTOMI^,^῍

, Takuhiro Y

^AMAGUCHI⁺^῍

, Yutaka M

ATSUYAMA^-^῍

, Yosikazu N

AKAMURA^.^῍

, Hirokazu K

IMURA^/^῍

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Seiichi I

^CHIKAWA⁰^῍

and Masahiro K

^IHARA¹^῍

+῍School of Health Sciences and Nursing, University of Tokyo

,῍National Institute of Public Health

-῍Department of Biostatistics, Kyoto University School of Public Health

.῍Department of Public Health, Jichi Medical School

/῍Department of Public Health, Yokohama City University School of Medicine

0῍Faculty of Hygienic Sciences, Kanagawa Prefectural College of Nursing and Medical Technology

1῍Department of Global Health and Socio-Epidemiology, Kyoto University School of Public Health

Objective: A prediction of the number of HIV-infected persons through sexual contacts in Japan until the end of,*+*was attempted under the scenarios of future parameters using a system model.

Material and Methods: HIV/AIDS surveillance reports until+333in Japan were available.

A system model was based on one of two scenarios : one is that the parameters after,***in the system model will be constant (basic scenario), and the other is that those will be changed due to countermeasures against HIV/AIDS (countermeasure scenario). In the countermeasure scenario, the frequency of sexual contacts will decrease by/percent, condom use will increase from/*ῌto//ῌ,+*ῌof sexually active persons will be non-active, detection rate of HIV infection will increase from ,*ῌto -*ῌ, and, the decrease in the rate of sexual contact due to the diagnosis of HIV infection will be from,*ῌto+*ῌ.

Results: Under the basic scenario, the prevalence of Japanese HIV-infected persons at the end of ,*+* was predicted to be 2,1** among males and -,/** among females through heterosexual contacts, and-/,***through homosexual contacts. The ratio of the prevalence under the countermeasure scenario to under the basic scenario was2+ῌamong males and 11ῌamong females through heterosexual contacts, and00ῌthrough homosexual contacts.

The sensitivity analysis showed that the prevalence under the basic scenario was unstable, and that the ratio of the prevalence under the countermeasure scenario to under the basic scenario was stable.

Conclusion: The predicted prevalence of Japanese HIV-infected persons through sexual contacts at the end of,*+*under the scenarios was shown.

Key words: HIV, AIDS, future prediction, system analysis

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