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Economic Regionalization in East Asia : Evolving Trends and Processes

著者 ベニー テー チェン グアン

journal or

publication title

人間社会環境研究

volume 13

page range 75‑89

year 2007‑03‑15

URL http://hdl.handle.net/2297/3682

(2)

論文

人間社会環境研究第13号2007.3 75

inEaStAsi劇:EvolvingTrendls Regionalizati⑪ninEaS“

andProcesses Economic

BennyTehChengGuan

東アジアにおける経済地域化:動向とプロセスの展開

客員研究員

ペニー。テー。チェン。グアン

要旨

経済的相互依存は東アジア地域ダイナミズムの主動脈と見なされている。経済面の地域化を 進める上で主要な役割をになっているのは非国家主体である。しかしながら,貿易,投資,事 業ネットワークや超国家的企業が戦11各的プロセスとして作り出した生産パターンがどう変化を

推進し地域全体の相互依存をはぐくんでいるかはあまり知られていない。

本論文は東アジア地域における内外変化がどう経済プロセスの地域化に影響しているかを注

意深く調べる。経済地域としての東アジアの構成を形づくりつつある多くの経済プロセスを探

究し,適時の説明をすることを目的としている。そのために,本論文は三章に分けられている 第一章は地域経済発展の日本人による説明として雁行モデル(FG)を評価する。第二章は地域

生産ネットワークへの移行を見きわめる。第三章は民族的事業ネットワークにおける新たな変 化を検討する。

検討-結果は,地域化パターンに転換が起きていることを示l唆している。また,貿易パターン の転換は地域内外の変化によるとの考えを打出す。地域的レベルで活動する株式会社は常に世 界的経済システムの変化に敏感であり,規模の経済や利潤の最大化を達成しなくとも,競争に 対処するため活動を調整し戦略をねり直すだろう。間接的に,それらの活動は東アジアの諸国

と人々を以前よりも近づけることによって地域建設に貢献している。

キーワード

東アジア、経済地域化,生産ネットワーク,民族事業ネットワーク,経済的相互依存

landscapearethenon-stateactors・Yet,littleis knownofhowtradainvestment,businessnetworks andproductionpattemsasstrateglcprocessescarved outbytransnationalco1poratefirmsaredriving changeandfbstermginterdependenceacrossthere- glon

lnconcertwiththenotlonofglobalization,thispa- perlookscloselyathowglobalizationandchanges withintheTegio1Thaveafrectedtheregionalizationof economlcprocessesinEastAsialtaimstoexplore andidenUfyhowinfbrmalprocesseshaveshapedand lntrodMction

Withinaspanoftwodecadesorso,EastAsiahas beentransformedintoadynamiqfastgrowlngand prospenngregionineconomlcterms,Thequickre- coveryoftheAsianngersthatfellduetotl1einfa-

mousfinancialcrisis,theriseofChinaastheenglne ofgrowthandtheeconomicrecoveryofJapanare seenasfactorscontributingtoEastAsia,sdynamlsm Whilepoliticscontinuetoplayarole,thekeyplay- ersorprlme-moversmregionalizingtheeconomlc

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76 人間社会環境研究第13号2007.3

areshapingtheconstructionofEastAsiaasareglon Todoso,thispaperisdividedintothreesections-the firstsectloneva]uatestheflyinggeescmodel(FG)

asaJapaneseexplanationofregionaleconomicde- velopment;thenextsectionidentifiesshiftstowards productionnetwolksiandthefinalsectionlooksat challgesoccu1ringinbusiness/et]]nicnetworks・A briefconclusionisprovidedattheend

presentedatheoryofCagreedspecialization,andin- colporatedfbreigndirectinvcstment(FDI)intothe fTamework・FDIisconsideredthekeyfactorthaten- tailsthesystematicandhiemrchicaltransferofindus- trialresourcesfromaleadgoosetoafbllowergoose

orgeese

TherefOre,inEastAsiatheFGmodelof‘catching- upproductcycle,wouldsupposedlyconsistofJapan atthefiDnt,fbllowcdbythefirst-tiernewlyindustri-

alizedeconomies(NIES)(SouthKorea,Taiwan

SingaporeandHongKongLandsecond-tierNIEs

(Malaysia,Thailand,PhilippinesandlndonesiaL

withChinaandthelndochinesecountriestrailingbe- hindlnthisregard,multinationalco】porations

(MNCs)andtransnationalco]porations(TNCs)play

animportantroleinindustrialtransferthroughFDIs・

TheFG,whichisconsideredaneo-classicaleco-

nomicindustrialupgradingmodel,hasbeenactively prolnotedbybothscholarsandtheJapanesegovem- mentCertainSoutheastAsiancountriessuchasMa- laysiaandSingaporehavealsoplayedinstrumental rolesin‘instimtionalizing,thecatch-upprocessunder theclook-east,policyconcept・However,thepointin questioniswhethertheFGparadigmhasprovidedan accurateexplanationofinfOrmaleconomlcregionali- zationinEastAsiaandwhetheritwouldbejustifi- abletodismissitasahypedupillusionormyth

lnsupportofdleFGfmmeworkarepunditsand scholarswhoarguedthatthereisasystematictrade patterninthefbrmofFDIⅡowsfromJapantooUler EastAsiancountries、Indeed,therehavebeenafew wavesofFDIsthatstartedfTomthemid-1960sbut themostsignificantperiodwasaftertheP1azaAc-

cordinthemid-l980swhenUleeffectofe"aaka broughtabouta]argeinnuxofJapaneseFDIsfirst intotheNLcountries,dlenintotheASEAN-4,fOl- lowedmorerecentlybyChinaandVietnam、Thisis mostprofbundinthemanufacturingindustry,reHect- ingJapan,sownindustrializationdevelopmenttoa largeextent、Thepattemofthedirectinvestment,as

TheFIyingGeese(FG)Model

-anevaIuation

CoinedbyKanameAkamatsuinmel930s,the flyinggeesetheorywasdesignedtoexplainthese- quentialdevelopmentofmanufactunngindustries,

Thesequencewastofbllowatrajectorypattemln lheshapeofaninverse‘V,thatexplainsthedevelop- ment‘aftertheless-advanced-country,seconomyen-

terslntoanlnternationaleconomicrelationshipwith theadvancedCountries,.’Aknmatsu,sideaswere originallyappliedtothesmdyofJapan,sindustrial developmentfromtheMeijiperiod,inwhichhear- guesthatabasicthree-stagepattemcanbeobserved,

beginningwiththeimportationofsuperlorgoods,

fO11owedbyimport-substimtingproductionandthen exportatlonofmanufacmredgoodstolessadvanced

countnes・

Byl960s,hearguedthatJapanhassurpassedthe threestagesandenteredthefOurthstage,whereex- portatlonofconsumergoodsisreplacedbyhigher- levelcapitalgoods・Furthennore,heseesacertain fbnnofwoddordercenteringonatleastthreeFG groups-oneinAmerica,oneinEuropeandoneinJa-

pan2AkamatsuhadfOreseenthattheadvancementof Japan,sdevelopmentwouldbringaboutahighde- greeofheterogeneityvls-a-visless-developedcoun- triesbutatthesametimewouldresultinhomogene- 1tywithadvancedcounmes,thusgivingrisetotrade conflicts・HiswolkhasbeencontinuedandfUl-ther expandeduntilhisdisciplc,KiyoshiKQiima,who

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東アジアにおける経済地域化:動向とプロセスの展開 77

blell

Whilemacroeconomicsdoinsomewayslendsup-

pol-tfbrtheFG,itspopularityhasbeenonthede- clineanditseffectivenessasamodelfbrdevelop- menthasbeenunderscrutinybythosewhoconvlnc- mglyargueagainstit、4obviously,themodelisladen withimperfectexplanationsandisincreasinglymca‐

pableofprovidinganaccurateplctureoftherapid changesandunfbreseencllcumstancestransfOmnng theregionUndeniably,asEastAsianeconomiesfnr- therdevelopandeconomictiesdeepen,thecomplex structuresthatarebeingfbnnedarebecomingless andlessfamiliartotheFGassumptlonsandunder- standingsofeconomlcregionalizatiolL

WhatAkamatsufailtopredictaretheeffectsof globalization,technologicalinnovationandtheriseof ahugenationlikeChina,Indeed,Akamatsuwasprl- marilyconcernedwithnation-buildingandeven thoughGregionalintegration,wasaddedintothe frameworkbyhisstudentsandfbllowers,nationa]

economiescontinuetobeU1edomiwmtunitsof

analysis・MNCsandTNCscertainlymadepossible thetransferofcapitalandtechnologiesacrossborders,

butwithglobalizationtheyalsohelptoblulthosc lines・Explanationofeconomlcregionalizationbased onindividualcountrydevelopmentbecomeslessen- couraging,Apartfromchangesintheglobalpolitical economy,thepoliticaleconomyofindividualcoun- trlesandtheorganizationofproduction,marketsize andpopulationarealsoimportantfactorsthataffect changeandshouldbedulyconsidered5

VariouscriticismshavebeenthrownattheFG

modelThereareatleastthreeworthmentioning・O

Firstly,reverselmportsaspredictedbytheproduct cycletheoryhavebeendisappointing,Thereason thattheydidnotoccurtoalalgeextentisfirsUydue tothemanufacmringofproductsfbrlocalhost cconomiesandfbrcxporttothirdcountries(primar- ilytheUS),secondlythercluctancetotmnsfertech‐

nologicalknow-howandfinallythecontmuousprod- showninFigureLisindicativeoftheFGmodel

shiftmgfromtheNIEstotheASEAN-4andre- centlytoChina、Thishasprobablyresultedinthe economicgrowthofthesecounmeswithacertam timelagaspredictedbytheFG.

FigurelJapan,sManufacturingShareofInvestment(cases)

inAsia

-1弱弱幻鉤幻旧0

》岡

八幅 ASEA隈Clma〉へ

--N

FYl鐙1FY1艶3FYI93二FY199了=Tl鈴ヨデY129IFYI目33FY1B95FY1露7FY鱒ヨョFY百。.I SouTce:JETRO、2003

AinrtherchEmcteristicoftheFGisthehypothetl- caltier-by-tierrelocationofindustria]activitiesthat occurinasequentialfbrmationfromJapantothe NIEs,theNmstoASEAN-4,ASEAN-4toChina

andsoon・Statisticalevidencedoestoacertalnex-

tentshowthetrendespeciallyfiomtheeal-lytomid- l990s、TheNIEcountries,shareofFDIinthe

ASEAN-4hasincreasedtremendouslyasthose countriesmatureinmeirindustrializationprocessand begintospreadtheirwingstootherless-developed,

low-labor-costcountries、1,1991,Taiwanwasal- readyreportedastheleadinginvestormMalaysia andlndonesiaandsecondleadinginvestor(after

HongKong)inCbina3AsJapan,sFDItoASEAN‐

4dropped,theNIEs,FDIincreasedtoamaxlmum ofUS16mlllioninl994takingup44percentofto- talshmescomparedtoJapan,sl35perccnt(seeTa-

TablelComparlsonofJapan,sandtheNIEs,FDIinASEAN-4

AS旧AN-4

1N;E;IBF~

ValuclSharclThai]andlMalKlysialPhilippincsllndoneslil

1993 4299 27.9 2705 112 836

jKlpan NIFR

b4b

3956 25.7 60() OZ6 2037

672 i563

1994 1894 13.5 2556 IOE

」apan

NIEs 15945 440 1282 1989 631 】2()43

Kote8Units8US$million、%

Sourcc:AdaptedfronlJETRO,1995,1996(Japaneseversion)

~、■~

p気「、「

JI1P間、 [993 4299 0m

Japnn l89ll :59J閃

672 151]3

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人間社会環境研究第13号2007.3 78

uctmnovationbefOremamratlontosurvlveorstay aheadofcompetitors7

Asecondcriticismisthatimport-substimtionasa keystageintheFGmodelwasnotftIIlyrealizedin manyAsiancountries・Ratherthantheincremental catch-upthatshouldoccurnaturaUy,mostcounmes

(especiallytheASEAN-4)weretryingtoleapfrog

openinguptheirmarketstofbreigncapitalwithout firstlayingthegroundworkEagertomodernizeand

`catch-up,,Asianeconomies,growthhadtobecome somewhatdependentonfbreignfirmsandtheirtech- nologicalprowessSomefirmsproducefOrlocal marketsbuttherearealsothosethatsetupshopfbr dlird-partymaIkets・Insuchinstances,theimpol-t- substitutionstageisbypassedandthethree-stagese- quenceistruncatedintoatwo-stageone・

ThethirdpointisrelatedtoChina,s‘untraditional FG-like,economlcgrowthEversinceChinadecided toopenitsdoorstotheworldandwelcomeforeign lnvestorsintheea]lyl980s,Chinahasbeengrowing atampidpace・Largelyunaffectedbythefinancial crisis,itseconomyhasbeenboomingatasteadyrate ofabout8percent・Thetargetofenvybyothers,

Chinallasexperiencedaverticaleconomicclimband intheprocessjumpedthequeueandredefinedthe traditionallyunderstoodV-shapGAsearlyasl993,

Chinawasalreadyconsideredbysomeas‘ahuge birdflyingsidebysidewiththevariouslayersof Hyinggeeseatvariouslevelsofindustrialproduction・

InsomeareasChinaiscompetlngorcanpotentially colnpetewithJapanandtheNms,、8

Therefbre,China,srapidtransfOrmationandits growlngmarketsizearecertainlyhavingastronglm-

pactontheotherAsiancountliesinthereglonand soaffectingtheprocessesofregionalizationRecon- flgurationofeconomicpoliciesandstrategieswould benecessarytoaccommodateandtakeadvantageof theopportunities(aswellasthreats)thatliebefbre them・China,simport/exportprofileisnotonly changingthedirectionofbutfurtherfacilitatingthe

divisionofregional/internationalproductionproc- esses・Indeed,China,simpactontheregioniscaus-

1ngcompanlestorestrategizeandrestructure,

TheinfbrmalregionmizationinEastAsiahasacm-

allyevolvedoutoftheFGexplanationbasedon separatenationaleconomiesintoamorelntercon-

nectcdwebofvcrtical(andhorlzontal)production

networks、ItisagradualshiftandtheAsiancrisisis nothingmorethanoneindicationofsuchashift.

AShifttowa『dsRegionalProduction Networks(RPNs)

lfthereisanytalkofGregionalintegration,,pro- ductionnetworkswouldprovideabetterexplanation thantheFGfbrtworeasons-first,theFGissup-

posedtobebasedonthegrowthofindependent cconomiesthroughstagesofdevelopment,andsec- ond,theFGisin-1inewiththeconceptofopenre-

gionalism9Thisdoesnotimplythatproductionnet-

workspromoteclosedeconomicblocs・However,it doeshelptoilluminateandsupportthenotionofin- terdependenceandinterconnectednesslnregional

economies

Onthis,Hatch&YalnamurawrotethatGtheecono- miesofAsiaareindeedbecomingincreasinglyinter- twinedButthethreadthatissewingthemtogetheris

notAPEC[readopenregionalism]…Itis,toalarge

extent9Japanesedevelopmentahsm,basedonwhat theycall‘embraceddevelopment,inthefOmlof Japanese-ledproductionalliances.'OTheyseeastrong verticalrelationshipbetweentheembracer(Japan)

andtheembracce(Asiancountrics)thatcanbeliked totherelationshipbetweenlargeJapanesemanufac- turersandtheirkeiretsufinns,whichononehand benefitthosefirmsbutontheotherholdthemGcap- tive,duetohighdependency'1Thercgionalizationof Japaneseproductionnetworks,accordingtothem,is notmerelyaboutcostreductionbutispartofa globalstrategytostayinternationallycompetitiveby

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束アジアにおける経済地域化:動向とプロセスの展開 79

`lock[ing]uptheproductiveresources,inthere- gion.'2NetworksprovideJapanesefirmswiththeop- portunitytotakeadvantageofeachneighboring country,sstrengthandatthesametimeconstraln othercompetitorsfrommasteringtheentlretechno-

logicalprocess(duetothediscretelocationofpro‐

duction)Whilethismayultimatelyrequirestrong supportfromkeiretsucompanles,eventhistrendis changing

ProponentsofRPNsseeJapanasthecenterofthe productionhub,theoriginofaboutathirdofallre- gionalexportsofcomponentsfbrassembly・Whileall theNIEs,ASEAN-4andChinamaintainstrong tradewithJapan,50percentormoreofSouthKo‐

rean、Taiwanese,Filipinoandlndonesiancomponent importsin2001camefromJapan・I3JapaneseTNCs arenotonlyenmeshedintheregionbuttheirnet-

wolkshavealsobecomemorecomplexinnamre (evolvingfromhub-basedtocluster-formtoweb

type)uFmthermore,theyholdastrongpresenceln

ASEANandareexpandingintoChina・Withsmaller lnarketsizecomparedtoChina,ASEANcountrles havebeenreceptlvctoJapaneselllvestments,allow-

ingtheTNCstoestablishastrongfootholdthere,

whileChinahasabiggerdomestlcmarketandis partlyconstrainedbylingeringhistoricalproblems thathaveledtoamorecautlousapproachandstiffer competitioninhigh-endproductsfromotherfbreign

firms・

Asof2002,Japanesefirmsstillholdlargeshares ofthepassengervehiclemarketinThailand,Indone- siaandTaiwan,commercialvehiclemarketsinthe UlreecounmesandMalaysia,1notorcyclemarketsin Thailandandlndonesia,andarestillcompetitivein thehigh-endconsumerelectronlcsmarketinallfOur countries、l5ThisreHectstheirtechnologicalcapability andinnovatlvepowertorelnventandreproduce higherqualitygoods,Shalpforexamplc,hasmoved intothefOrehontinproducinghigh-endLCDTVs,

snaring25・lpercentofglobalmarketsharein2004,

twicetheshareofSonyatsecondplaceandSam-

sungataclosethird16Sharp,sachievementisdueto arefbcusingonltscol-ebusinessandconcentratlon onhigh-endmarketsinsteadofcompetinginlower mass-markeLMeanwhile,FUjitsuHitachiPlasmaDis- playholdsthelargestglobalshareoftheplaslnaTV market,Furthermore,nextgenerationTVsusingvan- ousnewtechnologiessuchasorganicelectrolumines- cence,fieldelnissiondisplayandliquid-crystal-on- siliconarebeingdeveloped・l7MitsubishiMotors Colp.,saddledwitha¥474.8billionnetlossinfiscal 2004,is】・evamp1ngandgemmgupwithplaI1stofO-

cusonelectricvehicletechnologyandtheproduction

ofelectricminivehiclesinitsefforttomakeacome-

backl8Therewillbeacompetitionbetweenhybrid fllel-cellandelectric・TheJapanesesemiconductorin- dushyisalsofastmakingacomebackassystemLSI

(large-scaleintegration)chipsreplaccDRAM(dy-

namlcrandomacccssmemory)Thesamecanbe saidfOrthehighlycompetitivedigitalcameramarket whereJapanesemakersareintroducingadvanced technologylikcthe`single-lensreflex,(SLR)tose‐

cureanedgeoverthemorebasicmodelsproduced byotherfbreignmakers・l9TheroboticindLlstrylsan- otherareawhercJapanhasunmatchedcapabilityin

Asia

Apartfromtheabilitytoinnovate,thereisastrong networkalliancebetweenJapaneseTNCsandtheir Asianpartners,charactenzcdbyvariousjoint-

ventures(JV),mergersandacquisitions(M&A)and

thcuscoforiginalequipmentmanufacturing(OEM)

armngementsOEMandODM(originaldesign

manufacturing)aremostcommoninthcclectronics

andlT/computerindustry,Thisactuallyblursthe linesofnationalboundariesandincreasesthecom-

plexityofregionalizationprocessesATaiwanese firIn,fbrexample,maylnvestinThailandbutmanu- facturepartsorproductsforaJapanesemanufacturer underanOEMagreemenL20Theimplicationsfrom tbiscouldbeadependencyonJapanesefirmsfol.

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人間社会環境研究第13号2007.3

80

high-valuetechnologyandcompanygrowth,thus demonstratingJapan,scemralimportanceinthepro‐

ductionnetworks,theGtaming,ofAsiancompetitors anditsabilitytocontrolthesupplyofaparticulal componentorproductcomingintothelnalket、21In- steadofcompetingdirectlywithglobalplayers,

whichrequiresthepatientnurturingofbrandname andtechnologicalinnovatlonnottomentlonneces- saryresources,TaiwaneseandHongKongfinns havegenerallyusedcontractmanufacturingtogrow andcompete221nasurveycarriedoutbyMETIin 200Lof3995technologylicensingagreementsinthe

manufacturingindustry(whichmakesup963%of

totalagrcemcmsinallindustries),2370(593%)are inAsia,ofwhich943or39,8%arewithfbreign companiesandtheremainingwithoverseasJapanese subsidiariea23

TaiwanandHongKonghaveexcelledinOEM/

ODMduetotheirhighleveloftechnologicalknow- how,Morethanthat,theyalsoserveastest-casesfbr productsenteringmainlandChi、a、Historyplaysa roleaswellifoneconsidersthelong-tennstrategic businessalliancesthatJapanesefinnshaveestab- lishedwithTaiwaneseandHongKongcompanles- theyareperhapsalsomorecomfbrtableindealing withthemthanwiththelesserknownandlow-tech mainlandChinesefirlns,althoughUlismayvaryand changeovertime、SouthKoreancompaniesalsohave historicallybeenrenantoncontractmanuftlcmringto catchup・A11thesepolnttothecomplexinterlocking namreofvaliousproductionnetworks,withJapanese TNCsplayingakeyroleandintheprocesscontrib- utlngtotherapidriseofintra-regionaltrade・

Researchanddevelopment(R&D)isprimarily caniedoutinJapanlnmanyindustrialsectors,al- thoughdependingontheproduct,productdevelop- mentcouldbedoneinplaceslikeBangkok,Shang- haiorTaipeLProcurement,ontheotherhand,is changmg,withmoreandmoreJapanesemanufactur- 1ngsubsidiariessourcinglocally,Datafbrfiscal2004

showsthatthefiguresfbrtheNIEsrosefromalow of399percentin2000t051.8percentin2003,42.0 percentto559percentinASEAN-4and40.lto 5L3percentinChina,cross1ngoverthe50percent

mark,z1Thiswouldmeandecreaseddependencyon

thehomecountryandmoreonlocalandregional productionfOrpartsandcomponentsupplies・

Nevertheless,therearereasonstobelievethat JapanesePNsareopenlngupduetothediminishing roleofkaノーeZFLl・VariousM&Asinthebanking,auto- mobileandelectronicsindustIiesinrecentyearsare causingthekeiretsustructuretocrumbleandfHlLh theautomobileindustry,therevitalizationofNissan lsoneoftheclearestexamplesofashiftfromtllere- lianceontraditionalkeiretsutoseekingthemost cost-effectivesupplieratacertainpointintime、25 ThisistruefOrothercompanieshkeHondaand Sharp,whichhaveaglobalprocurementpolicyto buypartsfromthebest-qualitysupplicrsatthemost reasonableprice・Thcpressuresofbeingglobalcom- petltorsandmaintainingglobalmarketsharesare pushingJapanesemakerstobecostconsclousandto optfbrflexiblearrangementstomeettheconstant changeslnmarketneeds・Thchighcapabilitiesof otherAsianfirmscloselylinkedtotheJapanesePNs haveEdsoftlcilitatedsuchashift,enabnngthemto takeontheroleofsupplier、26

Whilethetraditionalkeiretsugroupingsarebe- cominglesssigmficant,therearestnlmanyJapanese SMEslinkedtobigcorporationsknownaslcmzkei

gqisAq(relatedcompanies).Unlikekeiretsu(dcfined

strictlyassubsidiarieswithmorethan50percent

controllingstake)kankeigaishaislcssthanthat,and

independentmanagementprevailstoalargeextent・

Onecharacteristicofkankeigaishaistheclosecoop-

erationi、R&D・

Inrecentyears,EastAsiahasbeenwitnessinga shiftinthedynamlsmofeconomlcregionalization Thisisnodoubtbroughtaboutbytheunprecedented economlcgrowthofChinathatischangingtheinten-

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東アジアにおける経済地域化:動向とプロセスの展開 81

parcdto8a4and89,2fbrNAFTAandtheEUre- spectively、31ThisshowsthatEastAsianeconom1es areincreasinglycomplimentary,whichisapotent factorfllelingthegrowthofintra-regionaltradeand contributingtohigherlevelsofeconomlcregionaliza-

tlOn

TheopenlngupofChina,seconomyanditsshift tomarketstamsisturningthecountrylntoavita]

lmporterinU]eregionChinaisincreasinglyreliant ontheregionfbrimportsandnon-regionalma1kets fbrexportsChina9sEastAsianexportsasapercent- ageofworldexportshavedroppedfrom552percent inl997to447percentin2003whileitsimportsat

545pcrcent(2003)arehigherthanJapan,sat438

percent・China,sregionalimportsin2003stoodat US$225billion,smpassingJapanbyUS$57billion Meanwhile,China,sexportstotheUSshotupby l83percentbetweenl997and200aln2004,

China,stopthreeilnportsupplierswereJapan,Tai- wanandSouthKorea(withtheUSfbmth,Malaysia

sixth,SingapoleseventhandHongKongninth)

whilehermostlmportantexportdestinationwasthe US32

ChinaisnotonlyreplacingJapanasanengineof growthbutthecountry,sabilitytoabsorbmass1ve amountsofregionalexportslsanessentialfactorin lntensifyingimra-regionaltradeandultimatelydeep- eninginterdependence・China,sstableexchangerate andshDnggrowthishavingapositiveeffectonJa- Pan,seconomlcrecoveryandotherAsiancounmes struckbythel997cnsis・Sincel999,tradebetween ChinaandMalaysiahasincreasedby258percent,

Thailandby200percent,Laosby245percent,Viet- namby281percent,CambodiabylOOperccnt,Indo- nesiabyll2percentandthePhilippinesbyawhop- ping565percent,withtradevaluebetweenChina andSoutheastAsiareachingUS$l058billionin 2004.33The2005WorldBankreportonEastAsiain- dicatesthat‘(f)orthcthirdyearlnarow,lmport growthinChinawasthelargestsinglecontributorto sityofintra-tradeandthedivisionoflabor、From

l985to2001,intratradeinexportsgrewfrom23,7 percentto35percent,mpartowedtotheexpanslon ofChina,sshareThemanifbldexpansionofintra- regionaltradeinthepasttwodecadescanbepartly attributedtotherapidexpansionofintra-industry trade(IIT).Intra-tradefOrgeneralmachineryand electronicmachineryarereportedtohaveexpanded 3.4timesand44timesrespectivelybetweenl990 and2000270tllerreportsshowthatthefastestgrow-

ingProducts(`dynamic,exports)aremanufacturcd

goodswithelectricalmachinerymakingupone-fifth ofthetotalvaluein200LwhichindicatesthatllTis steadilygrowinginimportance28

Apaltffomthequantitative,qualitativeanalysisin termsofintensltyandcomplimentantyoftradeis alsoshowingadeepeningofeconomlcregionEUiza- tionintheregionltisacommonunderstandingto expectcounmesnearbytoengageeachotherimradc more‘intensely,thancountriesatadistance,andthis hasbeenwellnotedby‘gravitymodels,ofinterna- tionaltrade・Therefbre,anymtensityindicesshould takethisfactorintoaccount・Basedonthetradein-

tensityindexfOrEastAsiancountriesin200Lthe

majoriwofbilateraltradcHows(95outofl32)not

onlyexceededunitybutmorelmportantlywentbe- yondtheircriticaldistance-adjustedexpectedvalues withabouthalf(65bilateraltradeflows)recording highervaluesthansixyearsagq29Thisclearlysug- geststhattraderelationsintheregionarehighlyin-

tensenotsimplyduetogeographicproximitybut substantiveeconomicrelationsInadditiontothat,

thetradecomplementaryindexwhichlooksatthe compatibilityofexport-andimport-profilesofcoun- triesindicatesthatthereisahighdegreeofmatching comparabletotheEUandNAFTAWithlOObeing anexactmatch,theoverallvaluehasrisenfTom51.2 inl985to680in2002,closinginonNAFTAat 7L6andtheEUat810(2002)3()Thefiguresare muchhigherfbrmachinerycomponentsat831com-

(9)

人間社会環境研究第13号2007.3 82

exportgrowthintherestofemergingEastAsia,jj1

Closertraderelationscouldwellcreateamorefavor- ableperceptlontowardsChinaandhelptoallaythe

℃hinathreat,syndrome・AsisevidcntinTabIe2 below,manyAsiancountrlesarerecordinglargein-

creascsinexportshares(shadedpart)andbenefiting

fromtradewithChina.

Chinatotakeadvantageofthelow]aborcostsand strongcomparativeadvantageintheassemblyof low-andhigh-techfinishedmanufklcturedgoods;1t ismoreefficienttolmportlntermediatepartsand componentsneededfbrfinalgoods、37

ThiscouldimplythatAsianeconolnlessupplying ChinawouldbecomelessdirectlyaffectedbyUS marketvulnerabilitiesorHucmations,hcncelessdc- pendent,andthatanydropinChina,sextra-regional exportscouldstillbepartiallybufferedbystrongdo- mesticdemands、38A1thoughthismaybodewellfbr intra-regionaltrade,itdoesnotimmediatelytranslate intoanalienationoftradewithnon-regionalparmers・

Asmentionedearlier,ASEANcounmesstillfeature prommentlyinUStrade、Theregioncontmuestore- mainopen,asincreasedintra-tradehasnotcomeat theexpenseofnon-regionalmarkets、39ASEANwill l-clnainimportantatleastfbrtwosimplereasons:

first,investorswouldratherspreadthanputalltheir eggslnonebasket,andsecond,varlousinitiatives suchastheASEANCommunltyprqJect,AFTAand AIAalehelpingtomakethesub-regionmorecondu- clvetoinvestors・Furthermore,mainlandChinese withtheirnewfbundwealtharebeginningtolnvest abroadandintoASEAN,cspeciallyinthelndochi- nesecountrles,whichareconsideredtohavelower laborcostthantl]ecoastalareasofChina.、l0Cambo- dia,Vietnam,MyanmarandLaosareamongthetop 30destinationsofChina,sapprovedFDItotalingUS

$lO91millionin2002,'1 Table2MajorChangesinEastAsianRegionaITradeDe

pendency

II1crensclncxportmn「ketslwCs('995-2001)

L【IrgcstmarketshaICincrclIsc2m」lnrgeRtmZlrkctsh【lrciIIcrcZ1sc lmpomingcounIIylClm1lgc(%)InIpo1xingcounmylChangc(%)

Expor【Ing counlIy

[4.7 17.0

chin、 Singnporc

C【lmbodiZl

16-5 1.3

So111hl<orca Chilln TZliwnn

'3.7 2.6

chin、

.「HliWnn lndnJ1eR1H1

10.1 2.0

ThIlilnnd chin、 llndoneRIn

8.8 3.9

Lnog VielnalTl Thnilnnd

7.3

8.2 CMnn

PhilippincS MKllKlvsiKl

rrniwnn

7.8 2.1

china SouthKoTcu1

5.3

Chinll Thni]mld

ViMnnnl 0.トノ

3.0 5.6 MalnVsin

ChinHl llIM[OI1csla

3.6 Indollcs]、

Chin3 Z・Lj

Singaporc l-IongKol1g Chinn

3,0 1.7

hldonCSMI HongKong

Tniwml

2.2 LZ

SouthKoTcll

Soulrcc:AdaptcdfYolnNg&Yeats,2003;METlWhilcPapcr12{ル]

lnessencc,itispossibletoarguethatafilrtherdi- visionoflaborthatincludesmainlandChina,amore extenslveproductionnetworkandashiftinthenndi- tionalunderstandingoftradcpatternsisoccurrlng・

ChinaisjoiningSoutheastAsiancountrlesasamain lmporterofpartsandcomponents・WhileJapancon- tmuestodemonstrateacomparativeadvantageinthe fnbricationofcomponentsfbrexportsandSingaporc servesasanexportbascfbrintermediarygoods,

ChinajoinsMalaysia,Thailandandlndoncsiaasim- portantproductionbasesfbrtheassemblyofproducts

Furthennore,thereisatradepatternemerglng fromChina,sparticipation,primarilyinthemachin- ery/high-techsectorthatincludeskeyproductssuch aspartsofofficemachincs,elecbDniccircuitsand partsoftelecomequlpment,wherebyothercountries inthereglonsupplyinterlnediatecomponentsto Chinafbrfinalassembly、35Thesearethenshipped outtotheUSandotherpartsoftheworld36This emerglngpatternisduetotherelocationoffinalas- semblymanufncturing(oftcnlaborintensive)into

ChangesinBusiness/EthnicNetworks ThccthnicChinese,foundpracticallyineverycor- neroftheglobe,makeupanestilnated35millioni、

population(excludingHongKongandTaiwan)of which80percentarelocatedinEastAsia(seeTable 3).ThcirprcsenceismuchstrongerintheSouth-

eastU]anNortheastAsia・OverseasChinescorGhua ch,iao,isalsorefelredtoastheChinesediaspora

Exll《TTnng 111亡胎81漣InuXIJDrl】11arl Iェ、DDI【111幽counInP CI1nnIzc(兜)

B[Ishn鱈$(1995..200:) 2凶Iar2cstm8u1

【mDomn2囮oumn Chan2c('リiJ

Phi1iPpin世H MzuIzwHi81 p

VIcIlln【11 1Ⅱ(1,1W、_ごT知 SiⅡg《IDO1℃

】【。、H1〈《lnR CI1inn

・cI1inIU耐.b ChinIU rul、Hrn・ロ

LUUI皿Ⅱ0.

Chinlh 亡llilMh ChinH3

SingnPoに

M(IlnVSiIl

HOngK。Ⅱ2

(10)

東アジアにおける経済地域化:動向とプロセスの展開 83

Havingsaidthat,theethnicChinesearestrong economicplayersandtheirllistoricalinvolvementln tradeandbusinessinevitablymakesthemamaJor fOrcetobereckonedwithMostbegintheirbusi‐

nessesasfamily-ownedsmall-andmedium-sizeden- terprlsesandwhilesomestillremalnassuch,others donotChen,sl995surveyfOundthatfamily-run firmswereimpressivelyhighinMalaysiabutwere moremixedbetweenfamily-andnon-falmlyfinnsln HongKongandSingapore,45Familyfeuding,

Western-styleeducation,smallerfamilysizeandthe restrictivenatureoffamily-finnsareamongthefac- torschangingthewayethnicChineseentrepreneurs runtheirbusinessesTheAsiancrisishasbeenan

lmportantwake-upcalltotheChinesetorestrucmre,

bemoretransparentandadheretogoodcolporate governancetokeepupwiththechangingtidesof

globalizationandsucceedinapost-crisisera、46

Networkinglsanessentialattributeofoverseas Chineseen位epreneurs、OftenreferredtoastheGbam-

boonetwo]k,,theyconducttheirbusinessesthrough aseriesofinfbmla]/personalizednetworksbyestab- lishingc]oserelationshipswithotherscalledGquanxi,,

basedinitiallyonftlctorssuchaslanguagesimilari- ties,kinship,clans,birthplaces,orschoolties,with networksgraduallygrowlngandexpandingovertime ThestrengthofChinesebusinessnetworkshas he]pedthemweatherchallengesandovercomehostile (ALza7e").Intheiradoptedhomelands,theynaturally

establishtheirownconnnunitiesandmaintaintheir culturaltraditionscustomarilypasseddownfrom generationtogeneratiolLTosurv1veandprosper,

theydependontheirsocialtiesandtheabilitytonet-

workwithothers・

Duetotheirknackfbrbusinessandtrade,the overseasChineseorGkakyou,inJapaneseoftenim- pliesethnicChineseasrichmogulsandhighlysuc- cessfUleconomlcactors、42Thisisoneofmanymls- conceptionsthathamperlheproperunderstandingof thcilroleas‘huach,iao,、Itisnotlmpossibleto identifysuccessftllethnicChinesebusinessmencon- sideringthelargepresenceofChinesediasporasln theregionbutitwouldbenaivetoassumethatall kakyous,arerichandsuccessfultraders・Overseas Chineseareinfactheterogenousgroupsofpeople withdifferentculmraLIinguisticandreligioushabits andrivahyandcompetitionamongdlemarecom- monWhileMalaysianandSingaporeanChinese,for example,stiUkeeptheirnamesandcontlnuetopre- servetheirculmralheritage,IndonesianandThai Chinesehaveassimilatedandlocalizedthemselves,

withmanynolongerspeakingMandarinorother ChinesedialectsJl3Thus,onemayviewtheethnic ChineseasGpeoplewhoareChinesebydescentbut whosenon-Chinesecitizenshipandpoliticalalle- g1ancecollapseancestralloyalties,.'4

TabIe3OverseasChineseinEastAsiaandArlcestraIDiaIectGroups

OverseaRChincso(]luzlcI1,iao)

Percenl0fTo talPopulalion Popula[10m

(miHioI1S) l-Iokkcin Cnnloncsc 「eochiu(妬) l-IiIkkn Hilinanese Othcrs CountrV

Singapore2.7477.62`[0.018.023.09.07.03.0 Malaysia5.6025.6531.721.712.121.85.37.4

BrL1nciO、0515,60NANANANANANA Thniland6.4510.607.01.056.016,012,02.0 Myann1ar3.006.6530.020.050.0

Vie[nmm1.005.356.056.534.01.52.0

1ndonesia7.403.5450.011.57.516.514.5 Cambodiaq403.442.010,077.03,08.0

PhiIinninBRlO614285.015.0 77.62 ↓0.0

25.65 {17

IVA 16,

Zn

5.1」

Philippines

10.015.0 15.0170.0

01710.32 Laos

Japan10.2510.201NA|N八|NA|NA|NA|NA

SouIhKorcalqO21qO5NA|NA|NA|NA|NA|NA NA

TOTAL’28.14

Sourcc;AdaptcdlromChel1,2001;Yuc,2003

PDI、ⅡUrUImh (lniⅡions)

23-0

3L7 2LRj

51;-0

3.,, (iqO

6.〔1

1.:0 50.3 ■-■■■

UljpD1nCS :.O[i 2-jL2 Bb-O :5.0

:0-(I

⑪-20

18_且’

(11)

84 人間社会環境研究第13号2007.3

bureaucraticenvlronmentsandtradebamersathome

andabroadAsTracy&Lever-Tracywrote,‘[t]he cnolmousstrengthofthcChinesediasporabusiness networkingistheabilitytomakehorizontallinkages

whentheverticalhierarchicalstructuresarenotnec-

essarilysupportiveoftheirbusinessendeavorsリ7

Businessassociationsarealsoacommoncharacteris-

ticofthcChinesebusinesscommunity・Throughsuch orgamzatlons,theynotonlyareabletonetworkand broademheirbusinesscontactsbutalsoseekadvice andhelpwhenfncedwithtrouble・

Assucccssftlleconomicactors,especiallyinthc

industrializcdNm-3countries(HongKong,Taiwan andSingapore),manylDdetheeconomicboomof

theearlyl990sandventuredtoinvestinthelessde- velopedcountriesinthercgionPerhapsthemost distinguishedmomentsreflectingthestrengthofU1cir businessnetworkswerewhensignificantamountsof investmentsstartedtopourintomainlandChinadur- ingthatperiodTheiractivitiescertainlyhavenot goneunnoticedbyanalystsandscholars・Fortwo

consecunveyears(l994andl995),JETROinc]uded

theiractivitiesinitswhitepaperreportsstatingthat theethnicChinesenetworkshadgrowntoastage wheretheycouldnolongerbeignoredl81ndeed,thc figureswerecomparativelyhighFroml985tol992,

693percent(US$219billion)ofChina,sFDIin‐

HowcamefromNIE-3ethnicChinese(mosUyHong

Kong,withUS$l96billion)comparcdtolq6per-

centfrolnJapan・Inthesameperiod,ASEAN-4re- cordedhigherinvestmcntinflowsfromSingaporean,

HongKongandTaiwaneseChinese(25percentor US$202billion,halffromTaiwan)thanfromJapa-

nese(212percentorUS$171billion);'9HongKong

andTaiwan,sFDItoChinamorethandoubledin

l993comparedwiththepreviousyear,50

Thelargecontributionofthekakyouswasglven promlnencebyscholarsassuggestiveofthemightof Chineseconnectlonsandanemel・genceofancw Chinese-basedeconomywithaleveragethatfarex-

ceedsJapan,s‘colTorateshoguns,.51JoumalistYoichi

FunabashisawtheGreaterChinaandChinesenet- worksaspartofwhathecallsthcGasianization,of

Asia52Arguingonculturalgrounds,Huntington

wrotcthat:

GOutsideJapanandKoreatheEastAsianeconomy isbasicallyaChineseeconomy…OverseasChi- nesearemuchmoreablethaneitherWesternersor JaPanesetodobusinessinChina,InChinatrust andcommltmentdependonpersonalcontacts,not contractsorlawsandotherlegaldocuments・West- ernbusincssmenfinditeasicrtodobusinessinIn-

diathaninChinawherethesanctityofanagree- mentrestsonthepersonalrelationshipbetweenthe partieS・'53

ThefigurcsunfortunatelydonotsupportHunting- ton,scontentionsThefactthatUSFDItoChinawas

fOurtimesthattolndiain2004andJapanwas

mnked2nd(2004)aftcrtheUSasChina,slargest

hadepartnergoestoshowthatoverseasChinese havenotreallytakenovertheeconomicreignsnor havetheybecometheleadingintegrativefbrceinthe

region5ITheethnicChinesetooktheopportumtyto

lnvestinChinaatatimewhenotherfOreigninvest- mentsplummetedamidsttheTiananmenincident、

Fromthemid-l990sonwards,though,investments fromotherfOreignnationalshavepickedupandare HowingsteadilyintoChina,colltributingtotheovcr- allfigureofChineseinwardFDI

Itiscertainlytruethatthebamboonetworkand quanxlarethepillarsofstrengthfbrtheChinesem U1eregionAsimilarlanguageandculmralaffinity doprovidethelubl-icantfbrdoingbusinessinChina・

However,thereisnoevidencetoprovethatsoclo- culturalchalactelisticshaveledtoslrongpositive identifIcationoraltruismbetweenmainlandandover- seasChinese・TheambitiousUS$155mil1ionSuzhou

IndushialPajk(SIP)prOjectbySingaporelsonc

clearexalnplc・Signedbetweenthetwogovernments

(12)

東アジアにおける経済地域化:動向とプロセスの展開 85

Chinese,AnunderstatedftlctisthatetmicChinese,

especiallyinSEA,havedemonstratedtheagilityto adaptandchangewhenfbrgingcloseconnectlons withnon-Chineseorcunyingfklvorwithpolitical eliteswhendeemednecessarytoexpandingtheil・

businessempires・However,therecenteconomiccri- sishasexposedcronycapitalismandChinesebusi- nessesbasedonshakygrounds,whichhasbrought aboutashiftinChinesecapitalismCalled‘hybrid capitalism,,YeungarguesthatChineseconglomer- atesinthereglonareinternationalizingtheirnet- wo]ks,movingbeyondtheChineseconclavesto- wardstransnationalentrepreneurshipandprofession-

alizingco1porategovemance,Westernstyle、59All

theseaugurwellfbrChinesefirmsastheyadoptin- ternationalstandardsofmanagementandbecomepart oftheglobaleconomy・Regionally,theoverseasChi- nesenetworksarenottotallyseparatedbutclosely linkedtotheregionalproductionnetwolks・

HowaretheylinkedandhowaretheChinese businessnetwoIksdifferentfromtheJapanesepro- ductionnetworks?ThecapabilityoftheethnicChi- neseinbusinessandtradeisaknownfactTheir

businessnetworks(whetherintra-ethnicornot)have helpedthemtosurvlveandprosperunderextreme conditions・Theirinvestmentshaveanimpactonthe economieswheretheyinvest・Mostofthelargeeth-

nicChmeseenterprisesaretermedGdiversified,in thattheyarespreadouttocovervariousbusinessar- eas・However,theircoreareasaremainlycenteredon constructlon,propertiesandservlces・Forexample,

HutchisonWhampoaLtd,rankedthehighestofthe top50TNCsfTomdevelopingcountrieswithfbreign assetsworthUS$48billionandownedbyLiKa- shing,hasdiversifiedinterestslnproperty,retaiLen-

ergy,portsandteleconInunications、6oWithaten-

dencytolookfbrshort-termprofits,thereisanincli- nauonamongethnicChinesefimlstogivelesspnor-

1tytomanuftlcturingindustrieswhichrequirelong- termlnvestment・Over6L6percentofHongKo、9,s ofChinaandSingapore,theprO]ectcameundercom-

petitionfrolnarivalSuzhouNewDistrictPark (SNDP)managedbytheSuzhoumunicipalitygov-

emment・TheirascibleLeeKuanYewcriticizedthe localofficialsfbrwhatheallegedtobefavoritismto- wardstheSNDPattheexpenseoftheS正.55QuanxL

ConftlcifmismandtheAsianvalueslhatLeeso

stronglyexpoundedondidlittletohelptheSingapo-

reansplantafbotholdonChina,ssoiLInthisin- stance,theuseofquanxlconnectionsdidnotleadto thedesiredresults・AsYaoputslt,quanxiisana7r thatrequiresChineseactorstomasterthedelicate balancebetweentherequlrementsofindividualinter- estandlhoseofsocialconsideration,whichismore oftenthannotlncongmentandpracticallydifficultto realize56Considerthisscenarlo:

‘…aSingaporeanbusinessmanoftenfindshimself inadilemlnawhenaskedbyhisChinesecounter- partforspecialfavours-asinpreferringhisfam-

ilymembersorrelativesinhinngorpromotlng woIkers・Toignoresuchrequestswouldundermine

the8"α“andhamlthegα"qii"8[feclings,affec-

tionlTogmntthemistoenCouragencpoUsmas wellastoliskviolatingtheprincipleofmeritoc- racy…ThemoretheSingaporeanbusinessmanhas lnvestedhisemotionsinrelation-bui]ding,…the moredifficultitwillbeforhimtovoicehisanxi-

etyorfearsaboutthepotentialsofexploitationor

emotionalblackmnilHeisthuslockedintoadis-

satisfyingrelationshipbutcanfindnorelease・'57

Therefbre,quanxl-oncehailedasculmrallyunlque asHuntingtonasserts-isfastloosingitslusterinthe ageofglobalizatiolLAsChinesesocietiesopenup andinternationalize,quanxiisbeingrelegatedtoa secondaryroleandinvokedmoresparinglywhenthe needarises58

Fu'thermore,quanxidefinedas6connection,may gobeyondthetraditionalinward-lookingexclusive andclosely-knittedChinesenetworkstoinvolvenon-

(13)

86 人間社会環境研究第13号2007.3

outwarddirectinvestmentin2003isin‘investment holding,realestateandvariousbusinessServices,

andll5percentin‘wholesale,retailandimport/cx- porttrades,comparedtoonly52percentin‘manu-

fncturi、9,.61Assuch,manufacmringactivityhasnot

beenashugeorcxtenslveaswithinJapaneseTNCs,

mostlySMEsfbcusingonlower-endtechnology・

Thoscwhoaimbigworktheirwayupthrough OEM/ODMcontractsandjoint-venturcsbutmorc oftenthannotbecomeheavilydependentonJapa-

neseTNCsfbrhigh-endtechnology・Thisinevitably incorporatespartoftheirbusinessnetworksintothe Japan-centeredproductionnetworksbytakingupthe supportiveroleofsupplierandcontractmanufacmrer・

Asnotedpreviously,SharpPhilippinessoul・cesabout 90percentoflocalprocurementfTomFilipilIoChi- neselnMalaysia,OrientalHoldings(thelateLoh

BoonSiew),HongLeonggmup(QuekLengChan)

andLiongroup(WilliamCheng)arelongtimepart-

nersofJapanesebrandmotorcycles-Honda,Yamaba andSuzukirespectively・Thestrongnetworkalliance betweenJapaneseTNCsandlocalethnicChincse networkswhichholdthekeytodomestlcmarketsis animportantfactorthathasaUowedJapanesePNsto expandandpenetratedeepintotheregionWith manuftlcturingmakingupthecorcofEastAsian lntra-trade,regionalproductionnetwo1kstakeprece-

dencG

OutstandingissuesremamastowhetherJapanese TNCscouldcontmuetomaintaintheirstrongpres-

ence・Twoissuescanbeidentified・Tllefirstissuels ontheincreasingnumberofJapanesefirmsinvolvcd inM&AandthegradualopeningofJapanesema1ket tofbreigninvestors・Cross-borderM&Asalesshotup fromUS$29millioninl988topeakatUS$16.4bil- lioninl999befbresettlingatUS$lO9billionin

2003、O2Thisincludeshigh-profileacquisitionssuchas

RenaultofNissan,Daimler-ChryslerofMitsubishi MotorandVodafbneofJapanTelecomandJ-Phone M&AsallowfbreignfinnstotapintoexclusiveJapa-

neseproductionnetworks,incolporatlngtheminto broaderglobalalliancesandpossiblyreducingtheir predominance、O3

ThesecondissuelsontheabilityofJapanese

TNCsandvarlousSMEstomaintaintheircore manufacturingandtechnologica]edge・AIthough automatlonandcomputerizationhavebecomeindis- pensab]e,Japan,sadvantageisduetoitslargepool ofhighlyskilledlabor,Thesepeoplearenotonlyat thecenterofinnovationandcreativitybutefficient troubleshootersandproblemsolvers・UnfOrtunately,

theyarethebabyboomerswhoaresoontogolnto

retll-ement,Alowbirthrateandthelackofenthusi-

asmfbrscienceandmathematlcsamongtheyoung cou]dleadtoashortageofskilledworkerscapableof takingoverfromtheoldergeneration,Indeed,a2001 surveyofschoolchildrenfiomfifthgradeelemcntaly tothirdgradejuniorsecondaryfoundthatasgrade levelincreased,thebeliefthatscienceandarithmetlc arcimportantandusefUlinlifesharplydecreased、64 TheJapaneseSMEswhichhavebeenthebackbone ofJapaneseindustrializationcouldbethehardesthit・

Thequestlonwouldthenariseastowhetherfbreign profbssionalscanbeallowedtobepartofJapan,s guardedtechnologicalnovelty・Inotherwords,will nationalownershipcontmuetomatter?

ConcIusiori

Thispaperhasbeenmainlyconcernedwiththe processcsofeconomicreglonalizationinEastAsia、

Motivatedbytheideathattherelsstillavagueun- derstandingofeconomicregionalizationandtherole playedbynon-stateactors,itaimstoanalyzethe changlngpatternsofregionaltradeandprovidca betterexplanatlonontheprocessesthatreHectthe contemporarypatternofeconomicactivitiesinthe EastAsianregion・Whiletheprocessesarevaried andinexhaustlve,keyfactorscentraltoregionaliza-

tionhavebeenidentified

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