Economic Regionalization in East Asia : Evolving Trends and Processes
著者 ベニー テー チェン グアン
journal or
publication title
人間社会環境研究
volume 13
page range 75‑89
year 2007‑03‑15
URL http://hdl.handle.net/2297/3682
論文
人間社会環境研究第13号2007.3 75
inEaStAsi劇:EvolvingTrendls Regionalizati⑪ninEaS“
andProcesses Economic
BennyTehChengGuan
東アジアにおける経済地域化:動向とプロセスの展開
客員研究員
ペニー。テー。チェン。グアン
要旨
経済的相互依存は東アジア地域ダイナミズムの主動脈と見なされている。経済面の地域化を 進める上で主要な役割をになっているのは非国家主体である。しかしながら,貿易,投資,事 業ネットワークや超国家的企業が戦11各的プロセスとして作り出した生産パターンがどう変化を
推進し地域全体の相互依存をはぐくんでいるかはあまり知られていない。本論文は東アジア地域における内外変化がどう経済プロセスの地域化に影響しているかを注
意深く調べる。経済地域としての東アジアの構成を形づくりつつある多くの経済プロセスを探究し,適時の説明をすることを目的としている。そのために,本論文は三章に分けられている 第一章は地域経済発展の日本人による説明として雁行モデル(FG)を評価する。第二章は地域
生産ネットワークへの移行を見きわめる。第三章は民族的事業ネットワークにおける新たな変 化を検討する。検討-結果は,地域化パターンに転換が起きていることを示l唆している。また,貿易パターン の転換は地域内外の変化によるとの考えを打出す。地域的レベルで活動する株式会社は常に世 界的経済システムの変化に敏感であり,規模の経済や利潤の最大化を達成しなくとも,競争に 対処するため活動を調整し戦略をねり直すだろう。間接的に,それらの活動は東アジアの諸国
と人々を以前よりも近づけることによって地域建設に貢献している。
キーワード
東アジア、経済地域化,生産ネットワーク,民族事業ネットワーク,経済的相互依存
landscapearethenon-stateactors・Yet,littleis knownofhowtradainvestment,businessnetworks andproductionpattemsasstrateglcprocessescarved outbytransnationalco1poratefirmsaredriving changeandfbstermginterdependenceacrossthere- glon
lnconcertwiththenotlonofglobalization,thispa- perlookscloselyathowglobalizationandchanges withintheTegio1Thaveafrectedtheregionalizationof economlcprocessesinEastAsialtaimstoexplore andidenUfyhowinfbrmalprocesseshaveshapedand lntrodMction
Withinaspanoftwodecadesorso,EastAsiahas beentransformedintoadynamiqfastgrowlngand prospenngregionineconomlcterms,Thequickre- coveryoftheAsianngersthatfellduetotl1einfa-
mousfinancialcrisis,theriseofChinaastheenglne ofgrowthandtheeconomicrecoveryofJapanare seenasfactorscontributingtoEastAsia,sdynamlsm Whilepoliticscontinuetoplayarole,thekeyplay- ersorprlme-moversmregionalizingtheeconomlc
76 人間社会環境研究第13号2007.3
areshapingtheconstructionofEastAsiaasareglon Todoso,thispaperisdividedintothreesections-the firstsectloneva]uatestheflyinggeescmodel(FG)
asaJapaneseexplanationofregionaleconomicde- velopment;thenextsectionidentifiesshiftstowards productionnetwolksiandthefinalsectionlooksat challgesoccu1ringinbusiness/et]]nicnetworks・A briefconclusionisprovidedattheend
presentedatheoryofCagreedspecialization,andin- colporatedfbreigndirectinvcstment(FDI)intothe fTamework・FDIisconsideredthekeyfactorthaten- tailsthesystematicandhiemrchicaltransferofindus- trialresourcesfromaleadgoosetoafbllowergoose
orgeese
TherefOre,inEastAsiatheFGmodelof‘catching- upproductcycle,wouldsupposedlyconsistofJapan atthefiDnt,fbllowcdbythefirst-tiernewlyindustri-
alizedeconomies(NIES)(SouthKorea,Taiwan
SingaporeandHongKongLandsecond-tierNIEs(Malaysia,Thailand,PhilippinesandlndonesiaL
withChinaandthelndochinesecountriestrailingbe- hindlnthisregard,multinationalco】porations(MNCs)andtransnationalco]porations(TNCs)play
animportantroleinindustrialtransferthroughFDIs・
TheFG,whichisconsideredaneo-classicaleco-
nomicindustrialupgradingmodel,hasbeenactively prolnotedbybothscholarsandtheJapanesegovem- mentCertainSoutheastAsiancountriessuchasMa- laysiaandSingaporehavealsoplayedinstrumental rolesin‘instimtionalizing,thecatch-upprocessunder theclook-east,policyconcept・However,thepointin questioniswhethertheFGparadigmhasprovidedan accurateexplanationofinfOrmaleconomlcregionali- zationinEastAsiaandwhetheritwouldbejustifi- abletodismissitasahypedupillusionormyth
lnsupportofdleFGfmmeworkarepunditsand scholarswhoarguedthatthereisasystematictrade patterninthefbrmofFDIⅡowsfromJapantooUler EastAsiancountries、Indeed,therehavebeenafew wavesofFDIsthatstartedfTomthemid-1960sbut themostsignificantperiodwasaftertheP1azaAc-
cordinthemid-l980swhenUleeffectofe"aaka broughtabouta]argeinnuxofJapaneseFDIsfirst intotheNLcountries,dlenintotheASEAN-4,fOl- lowedmorerecentlybyChinaandVietnam、Thisis mostprofbundinthemanufacturingindustry,reHect- ingJapan,sownindustrializationdevelopmenttoa largeextent、Thepattemofthedirectinvestment,as
TheFIyingGeese(FG)Model
-anevaIuation
CoinedbyKanameAkamatsuinmel930s,the flyinggeesetheorywasdesignedtoexplainthese- quentialdevelopmentofmanufactunngindustries,
Thesequencewastofbllowatrajectorypattemln lheshapeofaninverse‘V,thatexplainsthedevelop- ment‘aftertheless-advanced-country,seconomyen-
terslntoanlnternationaleconomicrelationshipwith theadvancedCountries,.’Aknmatsu,sideaswere originallyappliedtothesmdyofJapan,sindustrial developmentfromtheMeijiperiod,inwhichhear- guesthatabasicthree-stagepattemcanbeobserved,
beginningwiththeimportationofsuperlorgoods,
fO11owedbyimport-substimtingproductionandthen exportatlonofmanufacmredgoodstolessadvanced
countnes・
Byl960s,hearguedthatJapanhassurpassedthe threestagesandenteredthefOurthstage,whereex- portatlonofconsumergoodsisreplacedbyhigher- levelcapitalgoods・Furthennore,heseesacertain fbnnofwoddordercenteringonatleastthreeFG groups-oneinAmerica,oneinEuropeandoneinJa-
pan2AkamatsuhadfOreseenthattheadvancementof Japan,sdevelopmentwouldbringaboutahighde- greeofheterogeneityvls-a-visless-developedcoun- triesbutatthesametimewouldresultinhomogene- 1tywithadvancedcounmes,thusgivingrisetotrade conflicts・HiswolkhasbeencontinuedandfUl-ther expandeduntilhisdisciplc,KiyoshiKQiima,who
東アジアにおける経済地域化:動向とプロセスの展開 77
blell
Whilemacroeconomicsdoinsomewayslendsup-
pol-tfbrtheFG,itspopularityhasbeenonthede- clineanditseffectivenessasamodelfbrdevelop- menthasbeenunderscrutinybythosewhoconvlnc- mglyargueagainstit、4obviously,themodelisladen withimperfectexplanationsandisincreasinglymca‐
pableofprovidinganaccurateplctureoftherapid changesandunfbreseencllcumstancestransfOmnng theregionUndeniably,asEastAsianeconomiesfnr- therdevelopandeconomictiesdeepen,thecomplex structuresthatarebeingfbnnedarebecomingless andlessfamiliartotheFGassumptlonsandunder- standingsofeconomlcregionalizatiolL
WhatAkamatsufailtopredictaretheeffectsof globalization,technologicalinnovationandtheriseof ahugenationlikeChina,Indeed,Akamatsuwasprl- marilyconcernedwithnation-buildingandeven thoughGregionalintegration,wasaddedintothe frameworkbyhisstudentsandfbllowers,nationa]
economiescontinuetobeU1edomiwmtunitsof
analysis・MNCsandTNCscertainlymadepossible thetransferofcapitalandtechnologiesacrossborders,
butwithglobalizationtheyalsohelptoblulthosc lines・Explanationofeconomlcregionalizationbased onindividualcountrydevelopmentbecomeslessen- couraging,Apartfromchangesintheglobalpolitical economy,thepoliticaleconomyofindividualcoun- trlesandtheorganizationofproduction,marketsize andpopulationarealsoimportantfactorsthataffect changeandshouldbedulyconsidered5
VariouscriticismshavebeenthrownattheFG
modelThereareatleastthreeworthmentioning・O
Firstly,reverselmportsaspredictedbytheproduct cycletheoryhavebeendisappointing,Thereason thattheydidnotoccurtoalalgeextentisfirsUydue tothemanufacmringofproductsfbrlocalhost cconomiesandfbrcxporttothirdcountries(primar- ilytheUS),secondlythercluctancetotmnsfertech‐
nologicalknow-howandfinallythecontmuousprod- showninFigureLisindicativeoftheFGmodel
shiftmgfromtheNIEstotheASEAN-4andre- centlytoChina、Thishasprobablyresultedinthe economicgrowthofthesecounmeswithacertam timelagaspredictedbytheFG.
FigurelJapan,sManufacturingShareofInvestment(cases)
inAsia
-1弱弱幻鉤幻旧00 間
》岡
八幅 ASEA隈Clma〉へ/
--N
FYl鐙1FY1艶3FYI93二FY199了=Tl鈴ヨデY129IFYI目33FY1B95FY1露7FY鱒ヨョFY百。.I SouTce:JETRO、2003
AinrtherchEmcteristicoftheFGisthehypothetl- caltier-by-tierrelocationofindustria]activitiesthat occurinasequentialfbrmationfromJapantothe NIEs,theNmstoASEAN-4,ASEAN-4toChina
andsoon・Statisticalevidencedoestoacertalnex-
tentshowthetrendespeciallyfiomtheeal-lytomid- l990s、TheNIEcountries,shareofFDIinthe
ASEAN-4hasincreasedtremendouslyasthose countriesmatureinmeirindustrializationprocessand begintospreadtheirwingstootherless-developed,
low-labor-costcountries、1,1991,Taiwanwasal- readyreportedastheleadinginvestormMalaysia andlndonesiaandsecondleadinginvestor(after
HongKong)inCbina3AsJapan,sFDItoASEAN‐
4dropped,theNIEs,FDIincreasedtoamaxlmum ofUS16mlllioninl994takingup44percentofto- talshmescomparedtoJapan,sl35perccnt(seeTa-
TablelComparlsonofJapan,sandtheNIEs,FDIinASEAN-4
AS旧AN-4
1N;E;IBF~
ValuclSharclThai]andlMalKlysialPhilippincsllndoneslil1993 4299 27.9 2705 112 836
jKlpan NIFR
b4b
3956 25.7 60() OZ6 鵬 2037
672 i563
1994 1894 13.5 2556 IOE
」apan
NIEs 15945 440 1282 1989 631 】2()43
Kote8Units8US$million、%
Sourcc:AdaptedfronlJETRO,1995,1996(Japaneseversion)
~、■~
p気「、「
JI1P間、 [993 4299 0m
Japnn l89ll :59J閃
672 151]3
人間社会環境研究第13号2007.3 78
uctmnovationbefOremamratlontosurvlveorstay aheadofcompetitors7
Asecondcriticismisthatimport-substimtionasa keystageintheFGmodelwasnotftIIlyrealizedin manyAsiancountries・Ratherthantheincremental catch-upthatshouldoccurnaturaUy,mostcounmes
(especiallytheASEAN-4)weretryingtoleapfrog
openinguptheirmarketstofbreigncapitalwithout firstlayingthegroundworkEagertomodernizeand`catch-up,,Asianeconomies,growthhadtobecome somewhatdependentonfbreignfirmsandtheirtech- nologicalprowessSomefirmsproducefOrlocal marketsbuttherearealsothosethatsetupshopfbr dlird-partymaIkets・Insuchinstances,theimpol-t- substitutionstageisbypassedandthethree-stagese- quenceistruncatedintoatwo-stageone・
ThethirdpointisrelatedtoChina,s‘untraditional FG-like,economlcgrowthEversinceChinadecided toopenitsdoorstotheworldandwelcomeforeign lnvestorsintheea]lyl980s,Chinahasbeengrowing atampidpace・Largelyunaffectedbythefinancial crisis,itseconomyhasbeenboomingatasteadyrate ofabout8percent・Thetargetofenvybyothers,
Chinallasexperiencedaverticaleconomicclimband intheprocessjumpedthequeueandredefinedthe traditionallyunderstoodV-shapGAsearlyasl993,
Chinawasalreadyconsideredbysomeas‘ahuge birdflyingsidebysidewiththevariouslayersof Hyinggeeseatvariouslevelsofindustrialproduction・
InsomeareasChinaiscompetlngorcanpotentially colnpetewithJapanandtheNms,、8
Therefbre,China,srapidtransfOrmationandits growlngmarketsizearecertainlyhavingastronglm-
pactontheotherAsiancountliesinthereglonand soaffectingtheprocessesofregionalizationRecon- flgurationofeconomicpoliciesandstrategieswould benecessarytoaccommodateandtakeadvantageof theopportunities(aswellasthreats)thatliebefbre them・China,simport/exportprofileisnotonly changingthedirectionofbutfurtherfacilitatingthe
divisionofregional/internationalproductionproc- esses・Indeed,China,simpactontheregioniscaus-
1ngcompanlestorestrategizeandrestructure,
TheinfbrmalregionmizationinEastAsiahasacm-
allyevolvedoutoftheFGexplanationbasedon separatenationaleconomiesintoamorelntercon-
nectcdwebofvcrtical(andhorlzontal)production
networks、ItisagradualshiftandtheAsiancrisisis nothingmorethanoneindicationofsuchashift.
AShifttowa『dsRegionalProduction Networks(RPNs)
lfthereisanytalkofGregionalintegration,,pro- ductionnetworkswouldprovideabetterexplanation thantheFGfbrtworeasons-first,theFGissup-
posedtobebasedonthegrowthofindependent cconomiesthroughstagesofdevelopment,andsec- ond,theFGisin-1inewiththeconceptofopenre-
gionalism9Thisdoesnotimplythatproductionnet-
workspromoteclosedeconomicblocs・However,it doeshelptoilluminateandsupportthenotionofin- terdependenceandinterconnectednesslnregional
economies
Onthis,Hatch&YalnamurawrotethatGtheecono- miesofAsiaareindeedbecomingincreasinglyinter- twinedButthethreadthatissewingthemtogetheris
notAPEC[readopenregionalism]…Itis,toalarge
extent9Japanesedevelopmentahsm,basedonwhat theycall‘embraceddevelopment,inthefOmlof Japanese-ledproductionalliances.'OTheyseeastrong verticalrelationshipbetweentheembracer(Japan)
andtheembracce(Asiancountrics)thatcanbeliked totherelationshipbetweenlargeJapanesemanufac- turersandtheirkeiretsufinns,whichononehand benefitthosefirmsbutontheotherholdthemGcap- tive,duetohighdependency'1Thercgionalizationof Japaneseproductionnetworks,accordingtothem,is notmerelyaboutcostreductionbutispartofa globalstrategytostayinternationallycompetitiveby
束アジアにおける経済地域化:動向とプロセスの展開 79
`lock[ing]uptheproductiveresources,inthere- gion.'2NetworksprovideJapanesefirmswiththeop- portunitytotakeadvantageofeachneighboring country,sstrengthandatthesametimeconstraln othercompetitorsfrommasteringtheentlretechno-
logicalprocess(duetothediscretelocationofpro‐
duction)Whilethismayultimatelyrequirestrong supportfromkeiretsucompanles,eventhistrendis changing
ProponentsofRPNsseeJapanasthecenterofthe productionhub,theoriginofaboutathirdofallre- gionalexportsofcomponentsfbrassembly・Whileall theNIEs,ASEAN-4andChinamaintainstrong tradewithJapan,50percentormoreofSouthKo‐
rean、Taiwanese,Filipinoandlndonesiancomponent importsin2001camefromJapan・I3JapaneseTNCs arenotonlyenmeshedintheregionbuttheirnet-
wolkshavealsobecomemorecomplexinnamre (evolvingfromhub-basedtocluster-formtoweb
type)uFmthermore,theyholdastrongpresenceln
ASEANandareexpandingintoChina・Withsmaller lnarketsizecomparedtoChina,ASEANcountrles havebeenreceptlvctoJapaneselllvestments,allow-
ingtheTNCstoestablishastrongfootholdthere,
whileChinahasabiggerdomestlcmarketandis partlyconstrainedbylingeringhistoricalproblems thathaveledtoamorecautlousapproachandstiffer competitioninhigh-endproductsfromotherfbreign
firms・
Asof2002,Japanesefirmsstillholdlargeshares ofthepassengervehiclemarketinThailand,Indone- siaandTaiwan,commercialvehiclemarketsinthe UlreecounmesandMalaysia,1notorcyclemarketsin Thailandandlndonesia,andarestillcompetitivein thehigh-endconsumerelectronlcsmarketinallfOur countries、l5ThisreHectstheirtechnologicalcapability andinnovatlvepowertorelnventandreproduce higherqualitygoods,Shalpforexamplc,hasmoved intothefOrehontinproducinghigh-endLCDTVs,
snaring25・lpercentofglobalmarketsharein2004,
twicetheshareofSonyatsecondplaceandSam-
sungataclosethird16Sharp,sachievementisdueto arefbcusingonltscol-ebusinessandconcentratlon onhigh-endmarketsinsteadofcompetinginlower mass-markeLMeanwhile,FUjitsuHitachiPlasmaDis- playholdsthelargestglobalshareoftheplaslnaTV market,Furthermore,nextgenerationTVsusingvan- ousnewtechnologiessuchasorganicelectrolumines- cence,fieldelnissiondisplayandliquid-crystal-on- siliconarebeingdeveloped・l7MitsubishiMotors Colp.,saddledwitha¥474.8billionnetlossinfiscal 2004,is】・evamp1ngandgemmgupwithplaI1stofO-
cusonelectricvehicletechnologyandtheproduction
ofelectricminivehiclesinitsefforttomakeacome-
backl8Therewillbeacompetitionbetweenhybrid fllel-cellandelectric・TheJapanesesemiconductorin- dushyisalsofastmakingacomebackassystemLSI
(large-scaleintegration)chipsreplaccDRAM(dy-
namlcrandomacccssmemory)Thesamecanbe saidfOrthehighlycompetitivedigitalcameramarket whereJapanesemakersareintroducingadvanced technologylikcthe`single-lensreflex,(SLR)tose‐cureanedgeoverthemorebasicmodelsproduced byotherfbreignmakers・l9TheroboticindLlstrylsan- otherareawhercJapanhasunmatchedcapabilityin
Asia
Apartfromtheabilitytoinnovate,thereisastrong networkalliancebetweenJapaneseTNCsandtheir Asianpartners,charactenzcdbyvariousjoint-
ventures(JV),mergersandacquisitions(M&A)and
thcuscoforiginalequipmentmanufacturing(OEM)armngementsOEMandODM(originaldesign
manufacturing)aremostcommoninthcclectronicsandlT/computerindustry,Thisactuallyblursthe linesofnationalboundariesandincreasesthecom-
plexityofregionalizationprocessesATaiwanese firIn,fbrexample,maylnvestinThailandbutmanu- facturepartsorproductsforaJapanesemanufacturer underanOEMagreemenL20Theimplicationsfrom tbiscouldbeadependencyonJapanesefirmsfol.
人間社会環境研究第13号2007.3
80
high-valuetechnologyandcompanygrowth,thus demonstratingJapan,scemralimportanceinthepro‐
ductionnetworks,theGtaming,ofAsiancompetitors anditsabilitytocontrolthesupplyofaparticulal componentorproductcomingintothelnalket、21In- steadofcompetingdirectlywithglobalplayers,
whichrequiresthepatientnurturingofbrandname andtechnologicalinnovatlonnottomentlonneces- saryresources,TaiwaneseandHongKongfinns havegenerallyusedcontractmanufacturingtogrow andcompete221nasurveycarriedoutbyMETIin 200Lof3995technologylicensingagreementsinthe
manufacturingindustry(whichmakesup963%of
totalagrcemcmsinallindustries),2370(593%)are inAsia,ofwhich943or39,8%arewithfbreign companiesandtheremainingwithoverseasJapanese subsidiariea23TaiwanandHongKonghaveexcelledinOEM/
ODMduetotheirhighleveloftechnologicalknow- how,Morethanthat,theyalsoserveastest-casesfbr productsenteringmainlandChi、a、Historyplaysa roleaswellifoneconsidersthelong-tennstrategic businessalliancesthatJapanesefinnshaveestab- lishedwithTaiwaneseandHongKongcompanles- theyareperhapsalsomorecomfbrtableindealing withthemthanwiththelesserknownandlow-tech mainlandChinesefirlns,althoughUlismayvaryand changeovertime、SouthKoreancompaniesalsohave historicallybeenrenantoncontractmanuftlcmringto catchup・A11thesepolnttothecomplexinterlocking namreofvaliousproductionnetworks,withJapanese TNCsplayingakeyroleandintheprocesscontrib- utlngtotherapidriseofintra-regionaltrade・
Researchanddevelopment(R&D)isprimarily caniedoutinJapanlnmanyindustrialsectors,al- thoughdependingontheproduct,productdevelop- mentcouldbedoneinplaceslikeBangkok,Shang- haiorTaipeLProcurement,ontheotherhand,is changmg,withmoreandmoreJapanesemanufactur- 1ngsubsidiariessourcinglocally,Datafbrfiscal2004
showsthatthefiguresfbrtheNIEsrosefromalow of399percentin2000t051.8percentin2003,42.0 percentto559percentinASEAN-4and40.lto 5L3percentinChina,cross1ngoverthe50percent
mark,z1Thiswouldmeandecreaseddependencyon
thehomecountryandmoreonlocalandregional productionfOrpartsandcomponentsupplies・Nevertheless,therearereasonstobelievethat JapanesePNsareopenlngupduetothediminishing roleofkaノーeZFLl・VariousM&Asinthebanking,auto- mobileandelectronicsindustIiesinrecentyearsare causingthekeiretsustructuretocrumbleandfHlLh theautomobileindustry,therevitalizationofNissan lsoneoftheclearestexamplesofashiftfromtllere- lianceontraditionalkeiretsutoseekingthemost cost-effectivesupplieratacertainpointintime、25 ThisistruefOrothercompanieshkeHondaand Sharp,whichhaveaglobalprocurementpolicyto buypartsfromthebest-qualitysupplicrsatthemost reasonableprice・Thcpressuresofbeingglobalcom- petltorsandmaintainingglobalmarketsharesare pushingJapanesemakerstobecostconsclousandto optfbrflexiblearrangementstomeettheconstant changeslnmarketneeds・Thchighcapabilitiesof otherAsianfirmscloselylinkedtotheJapanesePNs haveEdsoftlcilitatedsuchashift,enabnngthemto takeontheroleofsupplier、26
Whilethetraditionalkeiretsugroupingsarebe- cominglesssigmficant,therearestnlmanyJapanese SMEslinkedtobigcorporationsknownaslcmzkei
gqisAq(relatedcompanies).Unlikekeiretsu(dcfined
strictlyassubsidiarieswithmorethan50percentcontrollingstake)kankeigaishaislcssthanthat,and
independentmanagementprevailstoalargeextent・
Onecharacteristicofkankeigaishaistheclosecoop-
erationi、R&D・
Inrecentyears,EastAsiahasbeenwitnessinga shiftinthedynamlsmofeconomlcregionalization Thisisnodoubtbroughtaboutbytheunprecedented economlcgrowthofChinathatischangingtheinten-
東アジアにおける経済地域化:動向とプロセスの展開 81
parcdto8a4and89,2fbrNAFTAandtheEUre- spectively、31ThisshowsthatEastAsianeconom1es areincreasinglycomplimentary,whichisapotent factorfllelingthegrowthofintra-regionaltradeand contributingtohigherlevelsofeconomlcregionaliza-
tlOn
TheopenlngupofChina,seconomyanditsshift tomarketstamsisturningthecountrylntoavita]
lmporterinU]eregionChinaisincreasinglyreliant ontheregionfbrimportsandnon-regionalma1kets fbrexportsChina9sEastAsianexportsasapercent- ageofworldexportshavedroppedfrom552percent inl997to447percentin2003whileitsimportsat
545pcrcent(2003)arehigherthanJapan,sat438
percent・China,sregionalimportsin2003stoodat US$225billion,smpassingJapanbyUS$57billion Meanwhile,China,sexportstotheUSshotupby l83percentbetweenl997and200aln2004,China,stopthreeilnportsupplierswereJapan,Tai- wanandSouthKorea(withtheUSfbmth,Malaysia
sixth,SingapoleseventhandHongKongninth)
whilehermostlmportantexportdestinationwasthe US32
ChinaisnotonlyreplacingJapanasanengineof growthbutthecountry,sabilitytoabsorbmass1ve amountsofregionalexportslsanessentialfactorin lntensifyingimra-regionaltradeandultimatelydeep- eninginterdependence・China,sstableexchangerate andshDnggrowthishavingapositiveeffectonJa- Pan,seconomlcrecoveryandotherAsiancounmes struckbythel997cnsis・Sincel999,tradebetween ChinaandMalaysiahasincreasedby258percent,
Thailandby200percent,Laosby245percent,Viet- namby281percent,CambodiabylOOperccnt,Indo- nesiabyll2percentandthePhilippinesbyawhop- ping565percent,withtradevaluebetweenChina andSoutheastAsiareachingUS$l058billionin 2004.33The2005WorldBankreportonEastAsiain- dicatesthat‘(f)orthcthirdyearlnarow,lmport growthinChinawasthelargestsinglecontributorto sityofintra-tradeandthedivisionoflabor、From
l985to2001,intratradeinexportsgrewfrom23,7 percentto35percent,mpartowedtotheexpanslon ofChina,sshareThemanifbldexpansionofintra- regionaltradeinthepasttwodecadescanbepartly attributedtotherapidexpansionofintra-industry trade(IIT).Intra-tradefOrgeneralmachineryand electronicmachineryarereportedtohaveexpanded 3.4timesand44timesrespectivelybetweenl990 and2000270tllerreportsshowthatthefastestgrow-
ingProducts(`dynamic,exports)aremanufacturcd
goodswithelectricalmachinerymakingupone-fifth ofthetotalvaluein200LwhichindicatesthatllTis steadilygrowinginimportance28Apaltffomthequantitative,qualitativeanalysisin termsofintensltyandcomplimentantyoftradeis alsoshowingadeepeningofeconomlcregionEUiza- tionintheregionltisacommonunderstandingto expectcounmesnearbytoengageeachotherimradc more‘intensely,thancountriesatadistance,andthis hasbeenwellnotedby‘gravitymodels,ofinterna- tionaltrade・Therefbre,anymtensityindicesshould takethisfactorintoaccount・Basedonthetradein-
tensityindexfOrEastAsiancountriesin200Lthe
majoriwofbilateraltradcHows(95outofl32)not
onlyexceededunitybutmorelmportantlywentbe- yondtheircriticaldistance-adjustedexpectedvalues withabouthalf(65bilateraltradeflows)recording highervaluesthansixyearsagq29Thisclearlysug- geststhattraderelationsintheregionarehighlyin-
tensenotsimplyduetogeographicproximitybut substantiveeconomicrelationsInadditiontothat,
thetradecomplementaryindexwhichlooksatthe compatibilityofexport-andimport-profilesofcoun- triesindicatesthatthereisahighdegreeofmatching comparabletotheEUandNAFTAWithlOObeing anexactmatch,theoverallvaluehasrisenfTom51.2 inl985to680in2002,closinginonNAFTAat 7L6andtheEUat810(2002)3()Thefiguresare muchhigherfbrmachinerycomponentsat831com-
人間社会環境研究第13号2007.3 82
exportgrowthintherestofemergingEastAsia,jj1
Closertraderelationscouldwellcreateamorefavor- ableperceptlontowardsChinaandhelptoallaythe
℃hinathreat,syndrome・AsisevidcntinTabIe2 below,manyAsiancountrlesarerecordinglargein-
creascsinexportshares(shadedpart)andbenefiting
fromtradewithChina.
Chinatotakeadvantageofthelow]aborcostsand strongcomparativeadvantageintheassemblyof low-andhigh-techfinishedmanufklcturedgoods;1t ismoreefficienttolmportlntermediatepartsand componentsneededfbrfinalgoods、37
ThiscouldimplythatAsianeconolnlessupplying ChinawouldbecomelessdirectlyaffectedbyUS marketvulnerabilitiesorHucmations,hcncelessdc- pendent,andthatanydropinChina,sextra-regional exportscouldstillbepartiallybufferedbystrongdo- mesticdemands、38A1thoughthismaybodewellfbr intra-regionaltrade,itdoesnotimmediatelytranslate intoanalienationoftradewithnon-regionalparmers・
Asmentionedearlier,ASEANcounmesstillfeature prommentlyinUStrade、Theregioncontmuestore- mainopen,asincreasedintra-tradehasnotcomeat theexpenseofnon-regionalmarkets、39ASEANwill l-clnainimportantatleastfbrtwosimplereasons:
first,investorswouldratherspreadthanputalltheir eggslnonebasket,andsecond,varlousinitiatives suchastheASEANCommunltyprqJect,AFTAand AIAalehelpingtomakethesub-regionmorecondu- clvetoinvestors・Furthermore,mainlandChinese withtheirnewfbundwealtharebeginningtolnvest abroadandintoASEAN,cspeciallyinthelndochi- nesecountrles,whichareconsideredtohavelower laborcostthantl]ecoastalareasofChina.、l0Cambo- dia,Vietnam,MyanmarandLaosareamongthetop 30destinationsofChina,sapprovedFDItotalingUS
$lO91millionin2002,'1 Table2MajorChangesinEastAsianRegionaITradeDe
pendency
II1crensclncxportmn「ketslwCs('995-2001)
L【IrgcstmarketshaICincrclIsc2m」lnrgeRtmZlrkctsh【lrciIIcrcZ1sc lmpomingcounIIylClm1lgc(%)InIpo1xingcounmylChangc(%)
Expor【Ing counlIy
[4.7 17.0
chin、 Singnporc
C【lmbodiZl
16-5 1.3
So111hl<orca Chilln TZliwnn
'3.7 2.6
chin、
.「HliWnn lndnJ1eR1H1
10.1 2.0
ThIlilnnd chin、 llndoneRIn
8.8 3.9
Lnog VielnalTl Thnilnnd
7.3
8.2 CMnn
PhilippincS MKllKlvsiKl
rrniwnn
7.8 2.1
china SouthKoTcu1
5.3
Chinll Thni]mld
ViMnnnl 0.トノ
3.0 5.6 MalnVsin
ChinHl llIM[OI1csla
3.6 Indollcs]、
Chin3 Z・Lj
Singaporc l-IongKol1g Chinn
3,0 1.7
hldonCSMI HongKong
Tniwml
2.2 LZ
SouthKoTcll
Soulrcc:AdaptcdfYolnNg&Yeats,2003;METlWhilcPapcr12{ル]
lnessencc,itispossibletoarguethatafilrtherdi- visionoflaborthatincludesmainlandChina,amore extenslveproductionnetworkandashiftinthenndi- tionalunderstandingoftradcpatternsisoccurrlng・
ChinaisjoiningSoutheastAsiancountrlesasamain lmporterofpartsandcomponents・WhileJapancon- tmuestodemonstrateacomparativeadvantageinthe fnbricationofcomponentsfbrexportsandSingaporc servesasanexportbascfbrintermediarygoods,
ChinajoinsMalaysia,Thailandandlndoncsiaasim- portantproductionbasesfbrtheassemblyofproducts
Furthennore,thereisatradepatternemerglng fromChina,sparticipation,primarilyinthemachin- ery/high-techsectorthatincludeskeyproductssuch aspartsofofficemachincs,elecbDniccircuitsand partsoftelecomequlpment,wherebyothercountries inthereglonsupplyinterlnediatecomponentsto Chinafbrfinalassembly、35Thesearethenshipped outtotheUSandotherpartsoftheworld36This emerglngpatternisduetotherelocationoffinalas- semblymanufncturing(oftcnlaborintensive)into
ChangesinBusiness/EthnicNetworks ThccthnicChinese,foundpracticallyineverycor- neroftheglobe,makeupanestilnated35millioni、
population(excludingHongKongandTaiwan)of which80percentarelocatedinEastAsia(seeTable 3).ThcirprcsenceismuchstrongerintheSouth-
eastU]anNortheastAsia・OverseasChinescorGhua ch,iao,isalsorefelredtoastheChinesediaspora
Exll《TTnng 111亡胎81漣InuXIJDrl】11arl Iェ、DDI【111幽counInP CI1nnIzc(兜)
B[Ishn鱈$(1995..200:) 2凶Iar2cstm8u1
【mDomn2囮oumn Chan2c('リiJ
Phi1iPpin世H MzuIzwHi81 p
VIcIlln【11 1Ⅱ(1,1W、_ごT知 SiⅡg《IDO1℃
】【。、H1〈《lnR CI1inn
・cI1inIU耐.b ChinIU rul、Hrn・ロ
LUUI皿Ⅱ0.
Chinlh 亡llilMh ChinH3
識
SingnPoに
M(IlnVSiIl
HOngK。Ⅱ2
東アジアにおける経済地域化:動向とプロセスの展開 83
Havingsaidthat,theethnicChinesearestrong economicplayersandtheirllistoricalinvolvementln tradeandbusinessinevitablymakesthemamaJor fOrcetobereckonedwithMostbegintheirbusi‐
nessesasfamily-ownedsmall-andmedium-sizeden- terprlsesandwhilesomestillremalnassuch,others donotChen,sl995surveyfOundthatfamily-run firmswereimpressivelyhighinMalaysiabutwere moremixedbetweenfamily-andnon-falmlyfinnsln HongKongandSingapore,45Familyfeuding,
Western-styleeducation,smallerfamilysizeandthe restrictivenatureoffamily-finnsareamongthefac- torschangingthewayethnicChineseentrepreneurs runtheirbusinessesTheAsiancrisishasbeenan
lmportantwake-upcalltotheChinesetorestrucmre,
bemoretransparentandadheretogoodcolporate governancetokeepupwiththechangingtidesof
globalizationandsucceedinapost-crisisera、46
Networkinglsanessentialattributeofoverseas Chineseen位epreneurs、OftenreferredtoastheGbam-
boonetwo]k,,theyconducttheirbusinessesthrough aseriesofinfbmla]/personalizednetworksbyestab- lishingc]oserelationshipswithotherscalledGquanxi,,
basedinitiallyonftlctorssuchaslanguagesimilari- ties,kinship,clans,birthplaces,orschoolties,with networksgraduallygrowlngandexpandingovertime ThestrengthofChinesebusinessnetworkshas he]pedthemweatherchallengesandovercomehostile (ALza7e").Intheiradoptedhomelands,theynaturally
establishtheirownconnnunitiesandmaintaintheir culturaltraditionscustomarilypasseddownfrom generationtogeneratiolLTosurv1veandprosper,
theydependontheirsocialtiesandtheabilitytonet-
workwithothers・
Duetotheirknackfbrbusinessandtrade,the overseasChineseorGkakyou,inJapaneseoftenim- pliesethnicChineseasrichmogulsandhighlysuc- cessfUleconomlcactors、42Thisisoneofmanymls- conceptionsthathamperlheproperunderstandingof thcilroleas‘huach,iao,、Itisnotlmpossibleto identifysuccessftllethnicChinesebusinessmencon- sideringthelargepresenceofChinesediasporasln theregionbutitwouldbenaivetoassumethatall kakyous,arerichandsuccessfultraders・Overseas Chineseareinfactheterogenousgroupsofpeople withdifferentculmraLIinguisticandreligioushabits andrivahyandcompetitionamongdlemarecom- monWhileMalaysianandSingaporeanChinese,for example,stiUkeeptheirnamesandcontlnuetopre- servetheirculmralheritage,IndonesianandThai Chinesehaveassimilatedandlocalizedthemselves,
withmanynolongerspeakingMandarinorother ChinesedialectsJl3Thus,onemayviewtheethnic ChineseasGpeoplewhoareChinesebydescentbut whosenon-Chinesecitizenshipandpoliticalalle- g1ancecollapseancestralloyalties,.'4
TabIe3OverseasChineseinEastAsiaandArlcestraIDiaIectGroups
OverseaRChincso(]luzlcI1,iao)
Percenl0fTo talPopulalion Popula[10m
(miHioI1S) l-Iokkcin Cnnloncsc 「eochiu(妬) l-IiIkkn Hilinanese Othcrs CountrV
Singapore2.7477.62`[0.018.023.09.07.03.0 Malaysia5.6025.6531.721.712.121.85.37.4
BrL1nciO、0515,60NANANANANANA Thniland6.4510.607.01.056.016,012,02.0 Myann1ar3.006.6530.020.050.0
Vie[nmm1.005.356.056.534.01.52.0
1ndonesia7.403.5450.011.57.516.514.5 Cambodiaq403.442.010,077.03,08.0
PhiIinninBRlO614285.015.0 77.62 ↓0.0
25.65 {17
IVA 16,
Zn
5.1」
Philippines
10.015.0 15.0170.0
01710.32 Laos
Japan10.2510.201NA|N八|NA|NA|NA|NA
SouIhKorcalqO21qO5NA|NA|NA|NA|NA|NA NA
TOTAL’28.14
Sourcc;AdaptcdlromChel1,2001;Yuc,2003
PDI、ⅡUrUImh (lniⅡions)
23-0
3L7 2LRj
51;-0
3.,, (iqO
6.〔1
1.:0 50.3 ■-■■■
UljpD1nCS :.O[i 2-jL2 Bb-O :5.0
:0-(I
⑪-20
18_且’
84 人間社会環境研究第13号2007.3
bureaucraticenvlronmentsandtradebamersathome
andabroadAsTracy&Lever-Tracywrote,‘[t]he cnolmousstrengthofthcChinesediasporabusiness networkingistheabilitytomakehorizontallinkages
whentheverticalhierarchicalstructuresarenotnec-
essarilysupportiveoftheirbusinessendeavorsリ7
Businessassociationsarealsoacommoncharacteris-
ticofthcChinesebusinesscommunity・Throughsuch orgamzatlons,theynotonlyareabletonetworkand broademheirbusinesscontactsbutalsoseekadvice andhelpwhenfncedwithtrouble・
Assucccssftlleconomicactors,especiallyinthc
industrializcdNm-3countries(HongKong,Taiwan andSingapore),manylDdetheeconomicboomof
theearlyl990sandventuredtoinvestinthelessde- velopedcountriesinthercgionPerhapsthemost distinguishedmomentsreflectingthestrengthofU1cir businessnetworkswerewhensignificantamountsof investmentsstartedtopourintomainlandChinadur- ingthatperiodTheiractivitiescertainlyhavenot goneunnoticedbyanalystsandscholars・Fortwoconsecunveyears(l994andl995),JETROinc]uded
theiractivitiesinitswhitepaperreportsstatingthat theethnicChinesenetworkshadgrowntoastage wheretheycouldnolongerbeignoredl81ndeed,thc figureswerecomparativelyhighFroml985tol992,
693percent(US$219billion)ofChina,sFDIin‐
HowcamefromNIE-3ethnicChinese(mosUyHong
Kong,withUS$l96billion)comparcdtolq6per-
centfrolnJapan・Inthesameperiod,ASEAN-4re- cordedhigherinvestmcntinflowsfromSingaporean,
HongKongandTaiwaneseChinese(25percentor US$202billion,halffromTaiwan)thanfromJapa-
nese(212percentorUS$171billion);'9HongKong
andTaiwan,sFDItoChinamorethandoubledin
l993comparedwiththepreviousyear,50
Thelargecontributionofthekakyouswasglven promlnencebyscholarsassuggestiveofthemightof Chineseconnectlonsandanemel・genceofancw Chinese-basedeconomywithaleveragethatfarex-
ceedsJapan,s‘colTorateshoguns,.51JoumalistYoichi
FunabashisawtheGreaterChinaandChinesenet- worksaspartofwhathecallsthcGasianization,of
Asia52Arguingonculturalgrounds,Huntington
wrotcthat:
GOutsideJapanandKoreatheEastAsianeconomy isbasicallyaChineseeconomy…OverseasChi- nesearemuchmoreablethaneitherWesternersor JaPanesetodobusinessinChina,InChinatrust andcommltmentdependonpersonalcontacts,not contractsorlawsandotherlegaldocuments・West- ernbusincssmenfinditeasicrtodobusinessinIn-
diathaninChinawherethesanctityofanagree- mentrestsonthepersonalrelationshipbetweenthe partieS・'53
ThefigurcsunfortunatelydonotsupportHunting- ton,scontentionsThefactthatUSFDItoChinawas
fOurtimesthattolndiain2004andJapanwas
mnked2nd(2004)aftcrtheUSasChina,slargest
hadepartnergoestoshowthatoverseasChinese havenotreallytakenovertheeconomicreignsnor havetheybecometheleadingintegrativefbrceinthe
region5ITheethnicChinesetooktheopportumtyto
lnvestinChinaatatimewhenotherfOreigninvest- mentsplummetedamidsttheTiananmenincident、
Fromthemid-l990sonwards,though,investments fromotherfOreignnationalshavepickedupandare HowingsteadilyintoChina,colltributingtotheovcr- allfigureofChineseinwardFDI
Itiscertainlytruethatthebamboonetworkand quanxlarethepillarsofstrengthfbrtheChinesem U1eregionAsimilarlanguageandculmralaffinity doprovidethelubl-icantfbrdoingbusinessinChina・
However,thereisnoevidencetoprovethatsoclo- culturalchalactelisticshaveledtoslrongpositive identifIcationoraltruismbetweenmainlandandover- seasChinese・TheambitiousUS$155mil1ionSuzhou
IndushialPajk(SIP)prOjectbySingaporelsonc
clearexalnplc・Signedbetweenthetwogovernments
東アジアにおける経済地域化:動向とプロセスの展開 85
Chinese,AnunderstatedftlctisthatetmicChinese,
especiallyinSEA,havedemonstratedtheagilityto adaptandchangewhenfbrgingcloseconnectlons withnon-Chineseorcunyingfklvorwithpolitical eliteswhendeemednecessarytoexpandingtheil・
businessempires・However,therecenteconomiccri- sishasexposedcronycapitalismandChinesebusi- nessesbasedonshakygrounds,whichhasbrought aboutashiftinChinesecapitalismCalled‘hybrid capitalism,,YeungarguesthatChineseconglomer- atesinthereglonareinternationalizingtheirnet- wo]ks,movingbeyondtheChineseconclavesto- wardstransnationalentrepreneurshipandprofession-
alizingco1porategovemance,Westernstyle、59All
theseaugurwellfbrChinesefirmsastheyadoptin- ternationalstandardsofmanagementandbecomepart oftheglobaleconomy・Regionally,theoverseasChi- nesenetworksarenottotallyseparatedbutclosely linkedtotheregionalproductionnetwolks・
HowaretheylinkedandhowaretheChinese businessnetwoIksdifferentfromtheJapanesepro- ductionnetworks?ThecapabilityoftheethnicChi- neseinbusinessandtradeisaknownfactTheir
businessnetworks(whetherintra-ethnicornot)have helpedthemtosurvlveandprosperunderextreme conditions・Theirinvestmentshaveanimpactonthe economieswheretheyinvest・Mostofthelargeeth-
nicChmeseenterprisesaretermedGdiversified,in thattheyarespreadouttocovervariousbusinessar- eas・However,theircoreareasaremainlycenteredon constructlon,propertiesandservlces・Forexample,
HutchisonWhampoaLtd,rankedthehighestofthe top50TNCsfTomdevelopingcountrieswithfbreign assetsworthUS$48billionandownedbyLiKa- shing,hasdiversifiedinterestslnproperty,retaiLen-
ergy,portsandteleconInunications、6oWithaten-
dencytolookfbrshort-termprofits,thereisanincli- nauonamongethnicChinesefimlstogivelesspnor-
1tytomanuftlcturingindustrieswhichrequirelong- termlnvestment・Over6L6percentofHongKo、9,s ofChinaandSingapore,theprO]ectcameundercom-
petitionfrolnarivalSuzhouNewDistrictPark (SNDP)managedbytheSuzhoumunicipalitygov-
emment・TheirascibleLeeKuanYewcriticizedthe localofficialsfbrwhatheallegedtobefavoritismto- wardstheSNDPattheexpenseoftheS正.55QuanxL
ConftlcifmismandtheAsianvalueslhatLeeso
stronglyexpoundedondidlittletohelptheSingapo-
reansplantafbotholdonChina,ssoiLInthisin- stance,theuseofquanxlconnectionsdidnotleadto thedesiredresults・AsYaoputslt,quanxiisana7r thatrequiresChineseactorstomasterthedelicate balancebetweentherequlrementsofindividualinter- estandlhoseofsocialconsideration,whichismore oftenthannotlncongmentandpracticallydifficultto realize56Considerthisscenarlo:
‘…aSingaporeanbusinessmanoftenfindshimself inadilemlnawhenaskedbyhisChinesecounter- partforspecialfavours-asinpreferringhisfam-
ilymembersorrelativesinhinngorpromotlng woIkers・Toignoresuchrequestswouldundermine
the8"α“andhamlthegα"qii"8[feclings,affec-
tionlTogmntthemistoenCouragencpoUsmas wellastoliskviolatingtheprincipleofmeritoc- racy…ThemoretheSingaporeanbusinessmanhas lnvestedhisemotionsinrelation-bui]ding,…the moredifficultitwillbeforhimtovoicehisanxi-etyorfearsaboutthepotentialsofexploitationor
emotionalblackmnilHeisthuslockedintoadis-
satisfyingrelationshipbutcanfindnorelease・'57
Therefbre,quanxl-oncehailedasculmrallyunlque asHuntingtonasserts-isfastloosingitslusterinthe ageofglobalizatiolLAsChinesesocietiesopenup andinternationalize,quanxiisbeingrelegatedtoa secondaryroleandinvokedmoresparinglywhenthe needarises58
Fu'thermore,quanxidefinedas6connection,may gobeyondthetraditionalinward-lookingexclusive andclosely-knittedChinesenetworkstoinvolvenon-
86 人間社会環境研究第13号2007.3
outwarddirectinvestmentin2003isin‘investment holding,realestateandvariousbusinessServices,
andll5percentin‘wholesale,retailandimport/cx- porttrades,comparedtoonly52percentin‘manu-
fncturi、9,.61Assuch,manufacmringactivityhasnot
beenashugeorcxtenslveaswithinJapaneseTNCs,mostlySMEsfbcusingonlower-endtechnology・
Thoscwhoaimbigworktheirwayupthrough OEM/ODMcontractsandjoint-venturcsbutmorc oftenthannotbecomeheavilydependentonJapa-
neseTNCsfbrhigh-endtechnology・Thisinevitably incorporatespartoftheirbusinessnetworksintothe Japan-centeredproductionnetworksbytakingupthe supportiveroleofsupplierandcontractmanufacmrer・
Asnotedpreviously,SharpPhilippinessoul・cesabout 90percentoflocalprocurementfTomFilipilIoChi- neselnMalaysia,OrientalHoldings(thelateLoh
BoonSiew),HongLeonggmup(QuekLengChan)
andLiongroup(WilliamCheng)arelongtimepart-
nersofJapanesebrandmotorcycles-Honda,Yamaba andSuzukirespectively・Thestrongnetworkalliance betweenJapaneseTNCsandlocalethnicChincse networkswhichholdthekeytodomestlcmarketsis animportantfactorthathasaUowedJapanesePNsto expandandpenetratedeepintotheregionWith manuftlcturingmakingupthecorcofEastAsian lntra-trade,regionalproductionnetwo1kstakeprece-
dencG
OutstandingissuesremamastowhetherJapanese TNCscouldcontmuetomaintaintheirstrongpres-
ence・Twoissuescanbeidentified・Tllefirstissuels ontheincreasingnumberofJapanesefirmsinvolvcd inM&AandthegradualopeningofJapanesema1ket tofbreigninvestors・Cross-borderM&Asalesshotup fromUS$29millioninl988topeakatUS$16.4bil- lioninl999befbresettlingatUS$lO9billionin
2003、O2Thisincludeshigh-profileacquisitionssuchas
RenaultofNissan,Daimler-ChryslerofMitsubishi MotorandVodafbneofJapanTelecomandJ-Phone M&AsallowfbreignfinnstotapintoexclusiveJapa-
neseproductionnetworks,incolporatlngtheminto broaderglobalalliancesandpossiblyreducingtheir predominance、O3
ThesecondissuelsontheabilityofJapanese
TNCsandvarlousSMEstomaintaintheircore manufacturingandtechnologica]edge・AIthough automatlonandcomputerizationhavebecomeindis- pensab]e,Japan,sadvantageisduetoitslargepool ofhighlyskilledlabor,Thesepeoplearenotonlyat thecenterofinnovationandcreativitybutefficient troubleshootersandproblemsolvers・UnfOrtunately,
theyarethebabyboomerswhoaresoontogolnto
retll-ement,Alowbirthrateandthelackofenthusi-
asmfbrscienceandmathematlcsamongtheyoung cou]dleadtoashortageofskilledworkerscapableof takingoverfromtheoldergeneration,Indeed,a2001 surveyofschoolchildrenfiomfifthgradeelemcntaly tothirdgradejuniorsecondaryfoundthatasgrade levelincreased,thebeliefthatscienceandarithmetlc arcimportantandusefUlinlifesharplydecreased、64 TheJapaneseSMEswhichhavebeenthebackbone ofJapaneseindustrializationcouldbethehardesthit・
Thequestlonwouldthenariseastowhetherfbreign profbssionalscanbeallowedtobepartofJapan,s guardedtechnologicalnovelty・Inotherwords,will nationalownershipcontmuetomatter?
ConcIusiori
Thispaperhasbeenmainlyconcernedwiththe processcsofeconomicreglonalizationinEastAsia、
Motivatedbytheideathattherelsstillavagueun- derstandingofeconomicregionalizationandtherole playedbynon-stateactors,itaimstoanalyzethe changlngpatternsofregionaltradeandprovidca betterexplanatlonontheprocessesthatreHectthe contemporarypatternofeconomicactivitiesinthe EastAsianregion・Whiletheprocessesarevaried andinexhaustlve,keyfactorscentraltoregionaliza-
tionhavebeenidentified