大震災時における道路の通行可能確率の推定

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(1)ᱧผㇺᏒ㒐ἴ⺰ᢥ㓸 Vol.2㧔2008ᐕ10᦬㧕. ᄢ㔡ἴᤨߦ߅ߌࠆ㆏〝ߩㅢⴕน⢻⏕₸ߩផቯ Estimation on Passable Street Probability in Times of Large Earthquake Disaster Ⴆญඳม1࡮ዊᎹ࿻৻2࡮ᧄㇹિ๺3 Hiroshi Tsukaguchi, Keiichi Ogawa, Nobukazu Hongo 1┙๮㙚ᄢቇᢎ᝼. ℂᎿቇㇱㇺᏒࠪࠬ࠹ࡓᎿቇ⑼㧔‫ޥ‬525-8577 ṑ⾐⋵⨲ᵤᏒ㊁〝᧲1-1-1㧕. Professor, Ritsumeikan University, Dept. of Civil Engineering 2┙๮㙚ᄢቇಎᢎ᝼. ℂᎿቇㇱㇺᏒࠪࠬ࠹ࡓᎿቇ⑼㧔‫ޥ‬525-8577 ṑ⾐⋵⨲ᵤᏒ㊁〝᧲1-1-1㧕. Associate Professor, Ritsumeikan University, Dept. of Civil Engineering 3ᄢ㒋Ꮢ᳓㆏ዪ. Department of Water Supply, Osaka Punicipal Office. Since the Hanshin-Awaji large earthquake disaster, the street blockage in times of earthquake disaster has been examined in several urban areas. But the quantitative data regarding the street blockage by earthquake disasters almost do not exist other than the Hanshin-Awaji large earthquake disaster. Therefore it is meaningful to propose a presumption method of applicable street blockage probability to the other urban area on the basis of the street dysfunction data in the Hanshin-Awazi large earthquake disaster. In order to achieve the goal, this study adopts a method of presuming the blockade probability of optional street section classified by width as the 1st stage, in the suffering area of the Hanshin-Awaji large earthquake disaster, considering the roadside quality in object areas, as the 2nd stage, to improve the model. In this manuscript, after verifying that occurrence of street dysfunction has followed to Poisson distribution concerning 1st stage, a method of calculating blockade per unit length is proposed. Key Words : disarster mitigation , street closure. 㧝㧚ߪߓ߼ߦ 㒋␹࡮᷆〝ᄢ㔡ἴએ᧪‫ޔ‬㔡ἴᤨߦ߅ߌࠆ㆏〝㐽Ⴇߦ㑐ߔࠆᬌ⸛߇ⴕࠊࠇࠆߎߣ߇ᄙߊߥߞߡ߈ߚ‫ޕ‬㆏〝㐽Ⴇߪ‫ޔ‬㆏〝᏷ຬ‫ޔ‬ᴪ㆏ᑪ‛ߩ᭴ㅧ߅ࠃ߮ᑪ▽ᐕ‫ޔ‬ᑪ‛ߩᑪߡㄟߺ⁁ᴫ╬ߩⷐ࿃ߦᏀฝߐࠇߡ߅ࠅ‫ߥ᧪ᧄޔ‬ ࠄ߫‫ޔ‬ᒰ⹥ㇺᏒߦ߅ߌࠆⵍኂ࠺࡯࠲ߦၮߠ޿ߡಽᨆߔࠆߎߣ߇ᦸ߹ߒ޿‫ޔߒ߆ߒޕ‬࿾㔡ߦ઻߁㆏〝㐽Ⴇߦ㑐 ߔࠆቯ㊂⊛࠺࡯࠲ߪ㒋␹࡮᷆〝ᄢ㔡ἴએᄖߦߪ߶ߣࠎߤሽ࿷ߒߥ޿‫ޔߢߎߘޕ‬㆏〝ᯏ⢻㓚ኂߦ㑐ߔࠆቯ㊂⊛ ߥ࠺࡯࠲ࠍ᦭ߒߡ޿ߥ޿ㇺᏒߦ߅޿ߡ‫ޔ‬࿾㔡ߦࠃࠆ㆏〝㐽Ⴇ⁁ᴫࠍផቯߔࠆߚ߼ߦ‫߇࠲࡯࠺ߩࠄࠇߎޔ‬ᄙᢙ ሽ࿷ߒߡ޿ࠆ㒋␹࡮᷆〝ᄢ㔡ἴߦ߅ߌࠆ㆏〝ᯏ⢻㓚ኂߦၮߠ޿ߡ‫ޔ‬ㆡಾߥ୯ࠍ⸳ቯߔࠆߎߣ߇ᅷᒰߢ޽ࠈ߁‫ޕ‬ 㒋␹࡮᷆〝ᄢ㔡ἴߦ߅ߌࠆ㆏〝ᯏ⢻㓚ኂߩಽᨆ⚿ᨐࠍઁㇺᏒߦㆡ↪ߒࠃ߁ߣߔࠆ႐วߦߪ‫ ╙ޔ‬1 Ბ㓏ߣ ߒߡ‫ޔ‬㒋␹࡮᷆〝ᄢ㔡ἴߩⵍἴ࿾ߩછᗧߩ㆏〝඙㑆ߩ㐽Ⴇ⏕₸ࠍ᏷ຬ೎ߦផቯߒ‫ ╙ޔ‬2 Ბ㓏ߣߒߡ‫ޔ‬ኻ⽎࿾ ඙ߦ߅ߌࠆᴪ㆏․ᕈࠍ⠨ᘦߔࠆߣ޿߁ᣇᴺࠍណ↪ߔࠆߎߣߦߒߚ‫ޕ‬ ╩⠪ࠄߪ‫ߥ߁ࠃߩߎޔ‬⠨߃ᣇߦၮߠ޿ߡ‫ޔ‬㒋␹࡮᷆〝ᄢ㔡ἴߦ߅ߌࠆ㆏〝ᯏ⢻㓚ኂ࠺࡯࠲ࠍ೑↪ߒߡ‫ޔ‬ ㆏〝᏷ຬߣᴪ㆏ᑪ‛ߩ⁁ᴫࠍ⠨ᘦߒ‫ޔ‬න૏ᑧ㐳ᒰߚࠅߩ㆏〝㐽Ⴇ⏕₸ࠍផቯߒߡ޿ࠆ‫ᧄޕ‬Ⓜߢߪ‫ ╙ޔ‬1 Ბ㓏 ߢ޽ࠆ‫ޔ‬㆏〝᏷ຬࠍ⠨ᘦߒߚන૏㆏〝඙㑆㐳ᒰߚࠅߩ㆏〝㐽Ⴇ⏕₸ߩផቯᣇᴺߦߟ޿ߡㅀߴࠆߎߣߦߒߚ޿‫ޕ‬ 1 −43−.

(2) 㧞㧚㒋␹㨯᷆〝ᄢ㔡ἴᤨߩ␹ᚭᏒߦ߅ߌࠆ㆏〝㐽Ⴇ⁁ᴫ㧝㧕㒋␹࡮᷆〝ᄢ㔡ἴߦ߅޿ߡ‫␹ޔ‬ᚭᏒἥ඙ߪ․ߦ↟ᄢߥⵍኂࠍฃߌߚ‫ޔߜࠊߥߔޕ‬ㇺ⾐Ꮉ‫ޔ‬⍹ደᎹ‫ޔ‬㒋ᕆ ␹ᚭ✢‫ ߦ߮ࠄߥޔ‬JR ᧲ᶏ㆏✢ߢ࿐߹ࠇࠆ⚂ 1.1km2 ߩ඙ၞ㧔એਅߢߪ࿾඙ A ߣ๭߱㧕ߪ㔡ᐲ 6 ߩὓ㔡ߢ޽ߞ ߚ‫ޔߚ߹ޕ‬ㇺ⾐Ꮉ‫ޔ‬⍹ደᎹ‫ޔ‬JR ᧲ᶏ㆏ᧄ✢‫ߦࠗࠚ࠙ࠗࡂ࡯ࡃ࡯ࡂޔ‬࿐߹ࠇࠆ⚂ 2km2 ߩ඙ၞ㧔એਅߢߪ࿾඙ B ߣ๭߱㧕ߪ㔡ᐲ 7 ߩỗ㔡ߢ޽ߞߚ‫ޕ‬ਔ࿾඙ߦ߅ߌࠆ㆏〝ߩ㐽Ⴇഀวࠍ࿑ 1 ߅ࠃ߮࿑ 2 ߦ␜ߔ‫ޕ‬ 㔡ᐲ 6 ߢ޽ߞߚ࿾඙ A ߢߪ‫ޔ‬ゞਔߩㅢⴕߦ㑐ߒߡߪ‫ޔ‬᏷ຬ 10m ࠍႺߦ㆏〝㐽Ⴇ⁁ᴫߦ㆑޿߇޽ࠆߎߣ߇ ࠊ߆ࠆ‫ߜࠊߥߔޕ‬᏷ຬ߇ 10m એ਄ߩ㆏〝ߢ޽ࠇ߫㆏〝߇ㇱಽ⊛ߦⵍኂࠍฃߌߡ߽⥄േゞߩㅢⴕ߇ਇ⢻ߣߥ ࠆߎߣߪ߶ߣࠎߤߥ޿‫ޕ‬᏷ຬ߇ 8㨪10m ߦߥࠆߣ‫⥄ޔ‬േゞߦࠃࠆㅢⴕਇ⢻ߥ㆏〝࡝ࡦࠢ߇ 1/4 ⒟ᐲߣߥࠆ‫ޕ‬ ߒߚ߇ߞߡ 10m ߩ᏷ຬߪ⥄േゞߩㅢⴕ߇น⢻ߢ޽ࠆ߆ุ߆ߦᄢ߈ߊᓇ㗀ߔࠆ᏷ຬߛߣ⠨߃ࠄࠇࠆ‫ޕ‬᏷ຬ߇ 4 㨪8 㨙ߩ႐วߦߪㅢⴕน⢻ߥ㆏〝඙㑆ߩഀว߇ߐࠄߦૐߊߥࠆ‫৻ޕ‬ᣇ‫ޔ‬ᱠⴕߦࠃࠆㅢⴕߦ㑐ߒߡߪ‫ޔ‬᏷ຬ 8m એ਄ߢߪㅢⴕਇนߣߥࠆ㆏〝඙㑆ߪߥ߆ߞߚ‫ࠅࠃࠇߎޕ‬᏷ຬ 8m એ਄ߩ㆏〝ߢ޽ࠇ߫ᱠⴕ⠪ߪ߶߷ㅢⴕ น⢻ߢ޽ࠆߣ⠨߃ࠄࠇࠆ‫ޕ‬ 㔡ᐲ 7 ߢ޽ߞߚ࿾඙ B ߢߪ‫ޔ‬ゞਔߩㅢⴕߦ㑐ߒߡ᏷ຬ 12m ࠍႺߦ㆏〝㐽Ⴇ⁁ᴫߦ㆑޿߇޽ࠆߎߣ߇ࠊ߆ ࠆ‫ߜࠊߥߔޕ‬᏷ຬ߇ 12m એ਄ߩ㆏〝ߢ޽ࠇ߫‫ޔ‬㆏〝߇ㇱಽ⊛ߦⵍኂࠍฃߌࠆഀวߪዊߐߊߥ޿߇‫ࠎߣ߶ޔ‬ ߤߩ㆏〝඙㑆ߪゞਔߩㅢⴕ߇น⢻ߢ޽ࠆ‫ޕ‬᏷ຬ 10㨪12m ߢߪゞਔߩㅢⴕߢ߈ߥ޿㆏〝࡝ࡦࠢ߇⚂ 2 ഀሽ࿷ߒ ߚ‫ޕ‬᏷ຬ 8㨪10m ߢߪゞਔߩㅢⴕߢ߈ߥ޿㆏〝඙㑆ߩഀว߇ᕆჇߔࠆ‫ޕ‬᏷ຬ 6㨪8m ߢߪᄙߊߩ㆏〝࡝ࡦࠢ߇ 㐽Ⴇߒ‫ޔ‬᏷ຬ 4㨪6m ߢߪ 8 ഀએ਄ߩ㆏〝࡝ࡦࠢ߇ゞਔㅢⴕਇนߢ޽ߞߚ‫৻ޕ‬ᣇ‫ޔ‬ᱠⴕߦࠃࠆㅢⴕߦ㑐ߒߡ‫ޔ‬ ᏷ຬ 10m એ਄ߩ㆏〝඙㑆ߢ޽ࠇ߫߶߷ㅢⴕน⢻ߢ޽ߞߚ‫ޕ‬. 㪋㫄ᧂḩ 㪋䌾㪍㫄. ㆏〝᏷ຬ. 㪍䌾㪏㫄. ᐔᏱㅢ䉍ㇱಽㅢⴕน ᱠⴕ䈱䉂 ㅢⴕਇน. 㪏䌾㪈㪇㫄㪈㪇䌾㪈㪉㫄㪈㪉䌾㪈㪍㫄㪈㪍䌾㪉㪌㫄㪉㪌㫄એ਄ 㪇㩼. 㪉㪇㩼. 㪋㪇㩼. 㪍㪇㩼. 㪏㪇㩼. 㪈㪇㪇㩼. ࿑ 1 ␹ᚭᏒἥ඙᧲ㇱߩ㆏〝㐽Ⴇഀว㧔࿾඙ A . 㪋㫄ᧂḩ 㪋䌾㪍㫄 ㆏〝᏷ຬ. 㪍䌾㪏㫄 ᐔᏱㅢ䉍ㇱಽㅢⴕน ᱠⴕ䈱䉂 ㅢⴕਇน. 㪏䌾㪈㪇㫄㪈㪇䌾㪈㪉㫄㪈㪉䌾㪈㪍㫄㪈㪍䌾㪉㪌㫄㪉㪌㫄એ਄ 㪇㩼. 㪉㪇㩼. 㪋㪇㩼. 㪍㪇㩼. 㪏㪇㩼. 㪈㪇㪇㩼. ࿑ 2 ␹ᚭᏒἥ඙᧲ㇱߩ㆏〝㐽Ⴇഀว㧔࿾඙ B㧕. 2 −44−.

(3) 㧟㧚㆏〝㐽Ⴇ୘ᚲߩಽᏓ⁁ᴫ 㧕㧔㧕㆏〝㐽Ⴇ୘ᚲߩಽᏓ⁁ᴫ ᧄ┨ߢߪ‫ߕ߹ޔ‬㔡ἴᤨߩ㆏〝㐽Ⴇ୘ᚲߩಽᏓ߇ࡐࠕ࠰ࡦಽᏓߦᓥ߁ߣ઒ቯߒߡ‫ޔ‬㔡ᐲߏߣߦ㆏〝᏷ຬ೎߅ ࠃ߮੤ㅢਥ૕೎ߩ㆏〝ㅢⴕน⢻₸ࠍ᳞߼ߚ‫ޔߪߢߎߎޕ‬න૏඙㑆㐳ࠍ 100 㨙ߣߒ‫ޔ‬න૏඙㑆ߦ߅޿ߡ㆏〝㐽 Ⴇ߇↢ߓࠆ⏕₸ࠍએਅߩࠃ߁ߦ⴫ߒߚ‫ޕ‬ ࡐࠕ࠰ࡦಽᏓ㧔Poisson’s distribution㧕ߩ⏕₸ኒᐲ㑐ᢙߪએਅߩㅢࠅߢ޽ࠆ߆ࠄ‫ޔ‬ . m n m e n!. pn. ࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮(1). 㨙㧦න૏㆏〝඙㑆㐳޽ߚࠅߩ㐽Ⴇ▎ᚲᢙߩᐔဋ୯ 㨚㧦න૏㆏〝඙㑆㐳޽ߚࠅߩ㐽Ⴇ▎ᚲᢙ ᑼ ࠃࠅ‫ޔ‬න૏඙㑆ౝߢ ࡩᚲ߇㐽Ⴇߔࠆ⏕₸‫ࡩ ߜࠊߥߔޔ‬ᚲ߽㐽Ⴇߒߥ޿⏕₸ߪ. p0. m 0 m e 0!. e m . ࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮(2). ߣ⴫ߔߎߣ߇ߢ߈ࠆ‫ޔߪߢߎߎޕ‬න૏඙㑆㐳ࠍ 㨙ߣߒߡ޿ࠆ߆ࠄ‫ߩߎޔ‬႐วߩ㨙ࠍ㨙 ߣߔࠆߣ‫ޔ‬ ඙㑆㐳 O ߩ㆏〝඙㑆ߩㅢⴕน⢻⏕₸ߪ‫ޔ‬. e m100. p0>100 m @. ࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮(3). ߣߥࠅ‫ߚ߹ޔ‬඙㑆㐳㨄 O ߩ㆏〝඙㑆ߩㅢⴕน⢻⏕₸ߪ‫ޔ‬. p 0 > xm @ ߣߥࠆ‫ ߢߎߎޕ‬m x. e mx ‫ޓ‬. m100 . p0 > x m @. ࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮(4). x ߢ޽ࠆߚ߼‫ޔ‬ᑼ( ߪ 100. e. x m100 ‫ޓ‬ 100. ࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮࡮(5). ߣ⴫ߔߎߣ߇ߢ߈ࠆ‫ޕ‬ ᑼ ࠍ↪޿ߡㅢⴕน⢻⏕₸ࠍផቯߔࠆ㓙ߦߪ‫ޔ‬න૏㆏〝඙㑆㐳 ߎߎߢߪ 㨙 ޽ߚࠅߩ㐽Ⴇ▎ᚲᢙߩ ᐔဋ୯߇ᔅⷐߣߥࠆ‫ᧄޕ‬Ⓜߢߪ‫ޔ‬਄⸥ߩ࿾඙ߦ߅޿ߡ㔡ἴ⋥ᓟߦ᠟ᓇߐࠇߚ⥶ⓨ౮⌀ࠍ↪޿ߡ‫ޔ‬ᣂߚߦ⸘᷹ ߒߚ‫ޕ‬ 㧔2㧕㒋␹࡮᷆〝ᄢ㔡ἴߩ࠺࡯࠲ࠍ↪޿ߚᬌ⸽ 2 ┨ߢㅀߴߚ␹ᚭᏒἥ඙ߩ࿾඙ߦ߅ߌࠆ࠺࡯࠲ࠍ↪޿ߡ‫ޔ‬㆏〝㐽Ⴇ⁁ᴫ߇ታ㓙ߦࡐࠕ࠰ࡦಽᏓߦᓥߞߡ޿ ࠆ߆ࠍǿ㧞ᬌቯߦࠃߞߡᬌቯߔࠆ‫ޕ‬ ᬌቯࠍⴕߥ߁ߦ޽ߚࠅ‫ޔ‬ฦ㆏〝඙㑆ࠍ᏷ຬߏߣߦߟߥ߉วࠊߖߡ৻ᧄߩ㐳޿㆏〝 ߣߒߡᛒ޿‫ࠍࠇߎޔ‬ 100m ߏߣߦಽഀߒߚ‫߉ߥߟޕ‬วࠊߖࠆ㆏〝඙㑆ߩ㗅ߦࠃࠅᬌቯ⚿ᨐ߇ᄌࠊࠆߣ⠨߃ࠄࠇࠆߚ߼‫ࡓ࠳ࡦ࡜ޔ‬ ߦߟߥ߉วࠊߐࠇߚ 3 ࡄ࠲࡯ࡦߦߟ޿ߡᬌቯߒߚ‫ޕ‬ᬌቯ⚿ᨐߪ⴫ 1 ߦ␜ߔㅢࠅߢ޽ࠆ‫ޔ߅ߥޕ‬㆏〝᏷ຬ 10m એ਄ߩ㆏〝ߦߟ޿ߡᬌቯࠍⴕߥߞߡ޿ߥ޿ߩߪ‫ޔ‬㐽Ⴇ߇⊒↢ߒߡ߅ࠄߕᬌቯߩᔅⷐ߇ߥ޿‫ࡊࡦࠨߪ޿ࠆ޽ޔ‬ ࡞ᢙ߇ዋߥㆊ߉ࠆ߆ࠄߢ޽ࠆ‫ߩࠄࠇߎޕ‬ᬌቯ⚿ᨐࠃࠅ‫ޔ‬࿾㔡ἴኂᤨߦ߅ߌࠆන૏㆏〝඙㑆㐳޽ߚࠅߩ㐽Ⴇ▎ ᚲᢙߪ‫ޔ‬㔡ᐲ 6 ߣ㔡ᐲ 7 ߩ႐ว‫ޔ‬㆏〝᏷ຬ೎߅ࠃ߮੤ㅢਥ૕೎ߦߺߡࡐࠕ࠰ࡦಽᏓߦㆡวߔࠆߎߣ߇᦭ᗧ᳓ Ḱ 5%ߢ⏕⹺ߢ߈ࠆ‫ޕ‬. 3 −45−.

(4) ⴫ 1 ǿ㧞ᬌቯ⚿ᨐ. 4 −46−.

(5) (3) 100 㨙඙㑆ߩㅢⴕน⢻⏕₸ એਅߢߪ‫ޔ‬㒋␹࡮᷆〝ᄢ㔡ἴߩ࠺࡯࠲߆ࠄ‫ޔ‬వㅀߩ࿾඙ߦ߅ߌࠆ 100 㨙඙㑆ߩㅢⴕน⢻⏕₸ࠍ⴫ 2 ߩࠃ ߁ߦ▚಴ߒߚ‫ޔ߅ߥޕ‬㔡ᐲ ߢ޽ߞߚ࿾඙ $ ߢߪ‫ ޔ‬㨙એ਄ O ᧂḩߩ㆏〝඙㑆ߦ㐽Ⴇ߇ߥ߆ߞߚ߇‫ోޔ‬ ᏷ O એ਄ߩ㆏〝඙㑆ߦߪ㐽Ⴇߒߡ޿ࠆ▎ᚲ߇ሽ࿷ߒߡ޿ߚ‫ߪࠇߎޔߒ߆ߒޕ‬࿖㆏ ภ✢ߩ਄ㇱߦ㒋␹㜞 ㅦ ภ␹ᚭ✢߇ሽ࿷ߒ‫ޔ‬㒋␹㜞ㅦ߇፣ࠇߚߎߣߦࠃࠅ㆏〝㐽Ⴇ߇↢ߓߚ․ᱶߥࠤ࡯ࠬߢ޽ࠆ‫⴫ޔ߼ߚߩߎޕ‬ ߢߪ㔡ᐲ ߦ߅޿ߡ߽᏷ຬ O એ਄ߩ㆏〝඙㑆ߪ 㧑ㅢⴕน⢻ߢ޽ࠆߣߒߡ޿ࠆ‫ޕ‬ ⴫ 2 100m ඙㑆ߩㅢⴕน⢻⏕₸ 㔡ᐲ 6. ㆏〝᏷ຬ(m) 0~4 4~6 6~8 8~10 10~12 12~16 16~25 25~. ᱠⴕ⠪ 0.579 0.630 0.716 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0. 㔡ᐲ 7 ⥄േゞ 0.335 0.370 0.434 0.713 0.934 0.934 1.0 1.0. ᱠⴕ⠪ 0.354 0.429 0.475 0.754 0.877 0.942 1.0 1.0. ⥄േゞ 0.211 0.229 0.254 0.464 0.877 0.942 1.0 1.0. 㧠㧚ᱧผㇺᏒ‫ޟ‬੩ㇺ‫ߩ߳ޠ‬ㆡ↪ ೨┨ߢㅀߴߚㅢⴕน⢻⏕₸ߩ▚಴⚿ᨐߪ‫␹ޔ‬ᚭᏒἥ඙ߩ࿾඙․ᕈࠍ෻ᤋߒߚ߽ߩߢ޽ࠅ‫ߩߎޔ‬୯߇࿾ၞ⒖ ォᕈࠍ᦭ߔࠆ߆ุ߆ߦߟ޿ߡᬌ⸛ߒߡ߅ߊᔅⷐ߇޽ࠆ‫ޔ߫ࠄߥ᧪ᧄޕ‬ᴪ㆏ᑪ‛ߩ᭴ㅧ߅ࠃ߮ᑪ▽ᐕ‫ޔ‬ᑪ‛ߩ ᑪߡㄟߺ⁁ᴫ╬ࠍ⋥ធ⠨ᘦߒߡ㆏〝㐽Ⴇ⁁ᴫࠍಽᨆߒ‫ߦࠇߎޔ‬ၮߠ޿ߡㅢⴕน⢻⏕₸ߩ▚಴ᣇᴺࠍឭ᩺ߒߥ ߌࠇ߫ߥࠄߥ޿߇‫ᧄޔ‬Ⓜߢߪ⴫ 2 ߦ␜ߔ㆏〝᏷ຬߩߺࠍ⠨߃ߚㅢⴕน⢻⏕₸ߦߟ޿ߡ‫⧯ޔ‬ᐓߩ⠨ኤࠍⴕߥߞ ߡ߅ߊ‫ޕ‬ ᧄ┨ߢߪ‫ࠍ ⴫ޔ‬ᱧผㇺᏒ‫ޟ‬੩ㇺ‫ߦޠ‬ㆡ↪ߔࠆ႐วߦߟ޿ߡ⠨߃ߡߺߚ޿‫ޔߕ߹ޕ‬㒋␹࡮᷆〝ᄢ㔡ἴߩ⋥ ೨ߢ޽ࠆ ᐕߩ␹ᚭᏒἥ඙ߦ߅ߌࠆ૑ቛ⛔⸘⺞ᩏ㧟 ߣ‫ ޔ‬ᐕߩ੩ㇺᏒߦ߅ߌࠆ૑ቛ⛔⸘⺞ᩏ㧠 ߆ࠄᓧ ࠄࠇࠆ࠺࡯࠲ࠍᲧセߔࠆ‫ ޔߢߎߎޕ‬ᐕએ೨ߩ૑ቛᚭᢙߣ ᐕએ㒠ߩ૑ቛᚭᢙߦᵈ⋡ߔࠆ‫ޔߪࠇߘޕ‬ ᐕߩችၔ⋵ᴒ࿾㔡ᓟ‫ ޔ‬ᐕߦ⠴㔡⸳⸘ᴺ߇ᛮᧄ⊛ߦ⷗⋥ߐࠇߡ⠴㔡⸳⸘ၮḰ߇ᄢ᏷ߦᡷᱜߐࠇߡ⃻ ⴕߩᣂ⠴㔡⸳⸘ၮḰ߇⺀↢ߒߚ߇‫ߩߎޔ‬ᣂ⠴㔡⸳⸘ၮḰߦࠃࠆᑪ‛ߪ‫ޔ‬㒋␹࡮᷆〝ᄢ㔡ἴߦ߅޿ߡ߽ⵍኂ߇ ዋߥ߆ߞߚߣߐࠇߡ޿ࠆ߆ࠄߢ޽ࠆ‫ޕ‬ ੩ㇺᏒߪ‫ޔ‬ᚢἴࠍฃߌߡ޿ߥ޿߆ࠄᚢ೨૑ቛߩභ߼ࠆഀว߇ో࿖ᐔဋࠃࠅ߽㜞޿‫ޔߦ⊛⥸৻ࠅࠃߣߎߩߎޕ‬ ੩ㇺᏒߦߪฎ޿૑ቛ߇ᄙ޿ߣᕁࠊࠇ߇ߜߢ޽ࠆ߇‫ޔ‬ታ㓙ߪ⴫ ߦ␜ߔߣ߅ࠅ⠴㔡⸳⸘ၮḰ߇ᄢ᏷ߦᡷᱜߐࠇ ߚ ᐕએ㒠ߦᑪ▽ߐࠇߚ૑ቛߩഀว߇㒋␹࡮᷆〝ᄢ㔡ἴᤨߩ␹ᚭᏒἥ඙ࠃࠅ⚂ 㜞޿‫ޔߪࠇߎޕ‬੩ㇺ Ꮢ߇ᚢἴࠍฃߌߡ޿ߥ޿ߚ߼ߦઁߩㇺᏒࠃࠅ߽૑ቛߩᐔဋᐕ㦂߇㜞ߊߥࠅ‫ޔ‬ᑪߡᦧ߃߇ㅴࠎߛߚ߼ߢߪߥ޿ ߆ߣ⠨߃ࠄࠇࠆ‫ޕ‬ ᰴߦ ᐕ߹ߢߦᑪ▽ߐࠇߚᧁㅧ૑ቛߩᚭᢙ߅ࠃ߮ో૑ቛᚭᢙߦኻߔࠆഀวࠍ⴫ ߦ␜ߔ‫ޕ‬ห⴫ࠃࠅ 1993 ᐕߩ␹ᚭᏒἥ඙ߣᲧセߒߡ‫⃻ޔ‬࿷ߩ੩ㇺᏒߪ⠴㔡ᕈߩ㜞޿૑ቛߩഀว߇㜞޿ߣ⠨߃ࠄࠇࠆ‫ޕ‬એ਄ࠃࠅ‫ޔ‬ 㒋␹࡮᷆〝ᄢ㔡ἴᤨߦ߅ߌࠆ␹ᚭᏒἥ඙ߩ㆏〝㐽Ⴇ࠺࡯࠲ߦၮߠ޿ߡᓧࠄࠇߚ⴫ 2 ࠍ੩ㇺᏒߩ㆏〝඙㑆ߦㆡ ↪ߒߡ߽ㅢⴕน⢻⏕₸ߪㆊᄢផ⸘ߣߪߥࠄߥ޿ߣ⠨߃ࠄࠇࠆ‫ޕ‬ ⴫ ᑪ▽ᐕઍ೎ߩ૑ቛᚭᢙ ᑪ▽ᤨᦼ 㨪 ᐕ 㨪 ᐕ 㨪 ᐕ 㨪 ᐕ ᐕ㨪. ␹ᚭᏒἥ඙㧔 ᐕ㧕 ᚭ . 5 −47−. ੩ㇺᏒ㧔 ᐕ㧕 ᚭ .

(6) ⴫4 1980ᐕએ೨ߦᑪ▽ߐࠇߚᧁㅧ૑ቛᚭᢙ ᧁㅧ૑ቛᚭᢙ(ᚭ). ␹ᚭᏒἥ඙㧔1993 ᐕᤨὐ㧕 19830 (41.7). ੩ㇺᏒ㧔2003 ᐕᤨὐ㧕 148610 (28.3). ߪ᭴ᚑᲧోᧁㅧ૑ቛᚭᢙߦኻߔࠆ᭴ᚑᲧ. 㧡㧚߹ߣ߼ ᧄⓂߢߪ‫ޔ‬㒋␹࡮᷆〝ᄢ㔡ἴߦ߅ߌࠆ JR ౐↲㆏㚞ࠍਛᔃߣߒߚ࿾඙ࠍኻ⽎ߣߒߡ‫ޔ‬㆏〝㐽Ⴇ࿾ὐߩಽᏓ ߇ࡐࠕ࠰ࡦಽᏓߦᓥ߁ߎߣࠍ␜ߒߚ਄ߢ‫ޔ‬㆏〝᏷ຬ೎ߦ㆏〝ߩන૏ᑧ㐳ᒰߚࠅߩㅢⴕน⢻⏕₸ࠍ᳞߼ߚ‫ޕ‬ᰴ ߦ‫ߩߎޔ‬୯ࠍઁㇺᏒߦ߅ߌࠆ㆏〝⹏ଔߦ૶↪ߢ߈ࠆ߆ุ߆ߦߟ޿ߡ‫ޔ‬੩ㇺᏒࠍኻ⽎ߣߒߡ⠨ኤࠍട߃ߚ‫ޕ‬ ╩⠪ࠄߪవߦㅀߴߚࠃ߁ߦ‫ޔ‬㒋␹࡮᷆〝ᄢ㔡ἴߦ߅ߌࠆ㆏〝ᯏ⢻㓚ኂ࠺࡯࠲ߦၮߠ޿ߡ‫ޔ‬㆏〝᏷ຬߣᴪ ㆏ᑪ‛ߩ⁁ᴫࠍ⠨ᘦߒߡ‫ޔ‬න૏ᑧ㐳㆏〝ߩㅢⴕน⢻⏕₸ࠍផቯߒߡ޿ࠆ‫ᧄޕ‬Ⓜߪ‫ޔߢߜ߁ߩߎޔ‬㆏〝᏷ຬࠍ ⠨ᘦߒߚන૏ᑧ㐳㆏〝ߩㅢⴕน⢻⏕₸ߦߟ޿ߡㅀߴߚ߇‫ޔ‬㆏〝᏷ຬߣᴪ㆏ᑪ‛ߩ⁁ᴫࠍ⠨ᘦߒߚන૏ᑧ㐳㆏ 〝ߩㅢⴕน⢻⏕₸ߩ▚ቯᣇᴺߣ੩ㇺᏒߦ߅ߌࠆ▚಴੐଀ߪᡷ߼ߡㅀߴࠆߎߣߣߒߚ޿‫ޕ‬. ෳ⠨ᢥ₂ 1) Tsukaguchi, H., Vandebona, U. , and Li, Y: Planning of Residential Street Network for Disaster Prone Urban Areas, Selected proceedings of the 8th World Conference on Transport Research, Vol.2, pp.411-424, 1999. 2) ᧄㇹિ๺ㇺᏒ᭴ㅧ߆ࠄߺߚᢥൻㆮ↥㒐ἴߦ㑐ߔࠆ⎇ⓥ㧙㆏〝ࡀ࠶࠻ࡢ࡯ࠢ․ᕈߥࠄ߮ߦ੤ㅢࡑࡀࠫࡔ ࡦ࠻ߩⷞὐ߆ࠄ㧙┙๮㙚ᄢቇୃ჻⺰ᢥ 3) ✚ℂᐭ⛔⸘ዪ㧦ᐔᚑ5ᐕᐲ૑ቛ⛔⸘⺞ᩏႎ๔ ╙3Ꮞㇺ㆏ᐭ⋵✬ 0Q౓ᐶ⋵ R 4) ✚ℂᐭ⛔⸘ዪ㧦ᐔᚑ15ᐕᐲ૑ቛ⛔⸘⺞ᩏႎ๔ ╙3Ꮞ ㇺ㆏ᐭ⋵✬ 0Q੩ㇺᐭR. 6 −48−.

(7)