Reasons of National Great Uprisings Emergence in Northern Africa(Egypt,Tunisia and Libya)

Reasons of National Great Uprisings Emergence in Northern Africa(Egypt,Tunisia and Libya)

著者 ARAB AHMADI, Amir Bahram

number 43

page range 49‑71

year 2013‑03

その他のタイトル 北アフリカ（エジプト、チュニジア、リビア）にお ける国民的大規模騒乱の発生原因

URL http://hdl.handle.net/10723/1315

【報告

3】

Reasons of National Great Uprisings Emergence in Northern Africa (Egypt, Tunisia and Libya)

Amir Bahram Arab Ahmadi

One of the most important world political events in 2011 which like a heavy hurricane passed through some regions of Arabic Middle East and Northern Africa- in a domino-like manner -is the emergence of nations’ great uprisings in countries such as Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, Yemen, Bahrain, and Syria and governing regimes’ overthrow in countries such as Egypt, Libya, Tunisia and Yemen. This stormy political situation which is still in progress in Bahrain and specially Syria has made the countries of this region pregnant of events which might in future end in results much greater.

For the emergence of these great national uprisings miscellaneous reasons have been presented which directly or indirectly have been influential on Northern African regimes’

overthrow and creating considerable political changes in Arabic Middle East countries. Political suffocation and autarchy in these societies, profound economic problems and their consequences, suffocation, governors’ negligence to Islamic laws, administrative corruptions, endeavor for regenerating the national glory and ultimately foundation of Democratic systems are considered as the most important reasons for the emergence of these great national uprisings.

A considerable point about the nations’ uprisings in Northern African region is the different approach the Western analysts and the local researchers have about the reasons behind the emergence of these national movements. During the last year the Western scientists have mainly tried to connect the roots of these events to the economic problems of the mentioned countries; yet, what is absolutely clear is that besides economic problem, people dissatisfaction with political situation and the autocracy governing the Northern African countries should be considered as important factors in provoking the nations’ hidden anger in countries such as Egypt, Libya and Tunisia and simultaneously the call for returning to ones’ selves and Islamic dominance over the social pillars are also considered as other important factors in these great national movements.

Generally, in exploring the events process ending in nations’ great uprisings in these

countries one can conclude that a set of political, economic, social and cultural factors have been

involved and the role of none of these factor should face comparing to other factors.

Nations Great Uprisings in Northern Africa: Revolution or Social Movements

Regarding the national uprisings in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya, one should confess that despite of some Western analysts’ remarks claiming that the changes happening in the mentioned countries have been revolutions, these uprisings are considered only as social movements. In order to analyze this one should say according to academic definitions, revolution is predicated in general to a fast, basic and harsh change in dominating values of a society, political institutes, social structure, leadership, governing activities and policies. (Huntington, 1370: 385)

Moreover, each revolution includes specific characteristics such as people’s guidance by leaders, specified ideologies, people mass presence in streets, efforts to imply basic changes in governing political systems, rejecting the existing situation and searching for a desired situation, governing regime’s challenge with basic change requests, sudden phenomenon and shifting the nation’s direction into a new one. (Khoramshad, 1390: 40-41) Still, since the changes happening in the mentioned countries are missing important indexes such as determined leaders and ideologies and the political structure and dominating values of the society have not changed vastly, these uprisings can be recognized as national movements with political and economic motivations (JalaiePoor, 1381: 19-20) which are mainly different from revolutionary movements asking for fast and basic changes in society. (Koen, 1378: 407)

1- Political Factor

Lack of Political Freedoms

Though, the economic factors have played an important role in nations’ uprisings in these countries; yet, in opposition to the Western analysts’ supposition that unorganized economy is the most important factor in these movements occurrence (Http://read and comment.com/2011), it should be mentioned that the severe political suffocation governing these countries in 1990s and 2000s accompanied by its subset indexes are accounted as the main factors in these movements. (Montalser, Garcia, 2011: 32-3)

According to Freedom House Institute 2011 report, the Northern African region

regarding political freedoms in the year 2010 has been the first region in the world political

suffocation list with the rate 78 percent. This institute enumerates political parties’ activities

restrictions, parliamentary and presidential elections’ lack of legal legitimacy; the existence of

harsh pinches in media platforms and freedom of speech as the most sensible indexes of political

suffocation in Egypt, Libya, Tunisia and other Northern African countries. (www.freedom House.

org/2011) Parallel to this, protests suppression, fighters’ apprehension and torture, long term imprisonments and killing some of the opposing characters are considered as other components of lack of political freedoms in these countries. (www.Geopolicity.com/2011) In these societies, the governors were deeply afraid of opening the political arena and believed that political reforms in different social layers of the countries end up in provoking the inside tensions and empowering the Islamic extremist forces and challenge heavily the stability and security of these countries. (Foreign policy, 2011: 55-6) Few political reforms which also happened in 1990s and 2000 in these countries especially Egypt and Tunisia were due to increasing the presidents’

authorities and more supervision of opposition political groups. (Alhannani, 2009: 29)

Autocracy

Intense autocracy existence accompanied by police atmosphere governing the society and broad and vast security systems expansion have been other factors for the people high dissatisfaction with these countries governors. Egyptian Security Organization growth and scary Security Systems in Tunisia and Libya indirectly have had an important role in shaping the political protests of people in these countries. (Le Monde Diplomatique, March 2011) According to multiple reports from Human Rights Advocate Groups, political fighters’ torture, murder and long term imprisonment without trial has been prevalent in these countries. This situation was much more severe in Libya; along with emergence of some dissatisfaction signs among people in 1980s and 1990s, Gadhafi started oppressing the oppositions brutally and the government declared the foundation of opposition political parties equal to their founders’ death. (The Middle East Quarterly, 2011: 69-70)

According to Human rights Advocate Group Watch only in 2009, 1200 prisoners in Libya were killed and this has happened when Gadhafi recognized himself as an advocate of human rights. (www.HumanRightsWach.org/2011)

Political characters’ torture and execution in Egypt in 2000s also ended up in Human Rights Advocate Groups’ main objections such as International Amnesty Organization and Human Rights Organization. This happened in a way that International Amnesty Organization in 2007 report described Egypt as the international torture center due to torturing the political oppositions. (www.Amensty International.org/2009)

This situation also happened in Tunisia and Ben Ali’s government during its 23-years

of governing, sentenced so many political activists to death or long term imprisonments. (Pollak,

2001: 2)

Evident Fraud in Parliamentary Elections

One of the most apparent symbols of Northern African region governments with Democracy process was evident fraud in parliamentary and presidential elections which happened so many times in Egypt and Tunisia during 1990s and 2000s and the governors changed the results pro-themselves in a clumsy manner. Among these election frauds, the most significant one was the Egyptian Parliament Election 2010 which was accompanied by apprehension of so many political activists opposing the government. During the election, the governing party achieved 423 parliament seats by obvious fraud and won the absolute majority.

(Movaseghi, 1390: 117) The presidential Elections in Egypt faced the same situation and during Mubarak’s 30-years government; he won presidential elections four times without any rivalry.

Though there was no rival for him, still the results were changed in order to serve him. (Guardian, 11 Feb 2011) Surprisingly, Hosni Mubarak, though being too old, in 2010 officially declared his presence in Presidential Election 2011 and after facing vast national protests and even some objections from influential people inside the government; he tried to provide the basis for his own son Jamal Mubarak to become president. (Wehba, 2011: 43-4)

Situation more or less was the same as Egypt in Tunisia and government did change the parliamentary and presidential elections results so many times pro its own benefits and issuing the results the government looked for which ended up in declaration of Ben Ali’s repetitious winning in presidential elections and the governing party’s achieving the majority seats in parliament.

In Libya also, where Gadhafi from 1977 declared himself as the spiritual leader of the country, basically the presidential elections were not held and there was no institution known as the National Assembly; hence, the government did not need to commit any fraud which itself clearly represented neglecting the nation believes and ideas.

2- Economic Factors

Increasing Unorganized Economy

One of the most important factors provoking national uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt

(and somehow in Libya) was the increasing economic problems such as the high rate of inflation

in these countries. Actually, though Tunisia and Egypt recommended by the Western countries

and on the basis of the plan known as “Great Middle East” started rather vast economic reforms

from the beginning of 2000s in their economic structures and along promoting the Gross

National Production (GNP), reduced the government’s involvement in economy and tax rates

and tariffs; still, these economic reforms ended up in ill consequences which in their own way

increased these two countries economic problems. (Zakaria, 2011: 25-6) In fact, the economic reforms in Tunisia and Egypt which were accompanied by vast advertisements, in spite of raising Egypt economy up to 7 percent in the years 2006 to 2008 and 6 percent increase in this country’s growth rate in 2010 and Tunisia growth rate in years 2006 up to 2009, (www.cia.gov/2011) in their own way manifested the existing inequalities in these countries more and more. At the same time, these economic reforms more than being based on the local indexes of these countries, were in accordance to the frameworks designed by World Bank and International Fund Organization which though at first and in appearance provided some parts of these countries with inflorescence (growth), parallel to them the amount of wealth in society increased. This fact that ended up in benefiting only a small group from this wealth, in its own way resulted in general increasing of prices and affecting the poor classes of the society such as retail producers, farmers, villagers in desert regions, workers, immigrant tribes and retail tradesman. (www.Irinnews.org/

2011) Besides this, lack of symmetry between economic growth caused by economic liberalization – without reforms in political atmosphere of the society – and lack of logical equality among political and economic sections, finally ended up in more and more extension of corruption among the governing intellectuals and increased the Egyptian and Tunisian nations’

dissatisfaction with the situation. (Dunne, Jan 31 2011)

Economic problems existence in Libya is also one of the most important factors of nation uprisings in this country. One the most important problem of them all is government’s negligence toward the welfare situation of Eastern regions of Libya from which the main portion of country oil is extracted. (www.economist.com/2011)

Moreover, in spite of constructing a human-made river which provided big cities citizens with water, urban infrastructures such as sewage canals are founded just in some big cities which especially lack of sewage has caused significant environmental problems for people of these regions. (Times, March 2011: 40)

Along this, Libyans were angry about the delay in completing the building projects which were supposed to be given to them. Of course, realizing about the emergence of deep public dissatisfaction signs, Gadhafi tried to organize some reforms in country during the 2000s and in 2008 declaring that soon the income from oil would be distributed among the nation, admitted that it would be 22 thousand dollars per year. However, these promises remained as slogans until his collapse. (www.aljazeera.com)

Public Poverty Phenomenon Expansion

Among the consequences of economic reforms in Egypt and Tunisia which some of the

Western political analysts consider as one of the important factors of national uprisings in these

countries was the expansion of the public poverty dominating the society which influenced the poor classes more especially in Egypt. (Attia, 2008: 19-20) According to 2011 report of United Nation Development Program, due to adopting inappropriate economic policies in Arabic Middle East countries, 50 percent of under 25-years old population of these countries lived in poverty and toil in 2010. (www.UNDP..Org/Arab Human Development Report/2010) this situation in Egypt in spite of vast economic reforms existence included about one fifth of the whole population and the general rate of poverty in rural regions has increased 40 percent.

(www.worldbank.org/2010) On the other hand, 40 to 44 percent of country population also had wages less than 2 dollars a day which means they were classified in complete poverty range.

(www.Imf.org/2010)

The public poverty dominating the Tunisian society in 2010 at the time of the nation’s great uprising according to the statistics presented by Social Affairs Ministry was about 25 percent which represented the severe economic deprivation of one forth to one sixth of the population of this country. (Www.Tunisia.com/Social Affairs Ministry/2010)

Public poverty was also considered as a pervasive phenomenon in Libya and in spite of the existence of plenteous wealth which government earned from oil sells; large population of the country especially in Eastern regions lived in ultimate poverty and exclusion and deprivation even from the normal living facilities. (http://www.indexmundi.com)

Unemployment

The existence of evident unemployment especially in Egypt and Tunisia was another factor for national dissatisfaction. This situation which went back to unorganized economy of these countries during 1990s and 2000s, reached its pick during the end of 2000s in a way that according to 2010 report of United Nations Development Program, youth unemployment rate in Northern African region between the years 2005 to 2009 reached higher than 23 percent that was considered almost two times the Word rate (13 percent) and the youth during the second half of 2000s formed almost 83 percent of the unemployed. (WWW.UNDP.org/2010: 108) This compared to the relative economic growth of these countries during the second half of 2000s, represents deep problems existence in the process of economic reforms which happened in a way that unemployment rate in Tunisia during 2005 and 2006 increased up to 27 percent out of which 65 percent were young generation and most of them who had higher education had to do mean jobs.

(Ibid: 109)

More or less it was the same in Egypt and although according to governmental statistics unemployment in this country during 2010 has been about 10 percent (www.Imf.Org/

Egypt/2010), yet, unofficial sources issued statistics more than 15 percent for unemployment rate

in the society. (www.AlahramEnghlish.org/2010)

Also in Libya unemployment during 2000s was considered as one of the most important problems of the country and in spite of existence of government’s vast financial facilities, about 13 percent of the Libyan citizens were out of jobs and 16 percent of the families lacked a stabilized earning. This happened when due to lack of labour forces about one million immigrants were working in this country in different services. (www.ReutersAfrica.org/March 2009)

3- Social Factors

Vast Administrative Corruption

Vast corruption existence in the highest levels of administrative, financial and governing systems of these countries and the governing family personal usage of public facilities were other important objections of social classes in countries such as Libya, Tunisia and Egypt which shifted to one of their main slogans during the uprisings. (29th International system Dynamics conference, July 2011: pp.17-18)

This great social tragedy reached its pick during 1990s and 2000s and the governments of these countries in a libertine manner ravaged their countries stock sources and their bank accounts in Switzerland included sidereal numbers. (Hibou & Hulsey, 2006: 202)

Governmental corruption was almost in the same level in the three mentioned countries.

In Tunisia Zine El Abidine Ben Ali with his wife Lilly Trablesi governed many banks and 50 percent of all bank deals all over the country directly entered their accounts. (www.Helium.com) Tunisia held the 59

rank in the World Corruption list in 2010. (www.corruption perception index.com/2011)

Ben Ali family properties has been estimated 5 billion dollars and after his collapse it was revealed that therewith his bank accounts in Switzerland and shares of tens of factories and companies, he has magnificent Buildings and villas in Canada, Switzerland and France.

(http://www.telegraph.co.uk June 2011/)

Governmental corruption in Libya was much intense, hence this country regarding governing class financial corruption with 2.2 percent rate in 2010 ranked as 146

country in World Corruption List (among 178 countries). (www.corruption perception index.com/2010) The main section of commercial deals in Libya during the Gadhafi’s 41-years government took place directly under his or his family supervision and almost all country assets were under his control.

Gadhafi’s possessions after his death was announced 8 billion Euros which made him one of the

world wealthiest characters. (The Economist, 1 April/2011)

Administrative corruption in Egypt also experienced more or less the same situation as Libya and Tunisia. Hosni Mubarak and his wife and sons clutch on a great section of banks, industries and mines of Egypt and foreign investments was only possible through paying huge sums of money to the president himself. Mubarak’s possessions were passing millions of dollars that were kept in banks of England and Switzerland and just one of his accounts in Switzerland passed 472 millions of dollars. (Al Malky, 2010: 12) According to 2010 World Corruption list, Egypt among 178 world countries stands in rank 89. (www.corruptionperceptionindex.com)

Vast high level authorities’ administrative and financial corruption in Northern African countries in 1990s and 2000s to a large scale transmitted to the judiciary system and many of high level judges shifted the rules to benefit the statesmen when they were bribed.

(www.washingtonpost.com/March 11, 2011)

Racial Tribal Rivalry

Racial and tribal bias existence and negligence to some of the tribes was one of the most important reasons in the Libyan great movement which ultimately ended in a real civil war.

The history of this which goes back to Libya social structure and some centuries ago and the time the Othman Empire and Italy ruled this territory. Generally observed the whole tribes of this country which include 140 Arabic and Barbaric can be divided into two groups: Western tribes and Eastern tribes that some of hostility exists between them from the old times. Actually, Eastern tribes during Sultan Edris’s government as the king of Libya were considered his main supporter and after 1969 coup d’état by Muammar Gaddafi, the Western tribes that Gadhafi belonged to, supported him. During this period Eastern tribes that were accounted as the supporters of the previous regime, were sentenced to Gadhafi’s anger and cruelty. (Arab Ahmadi, 1390: 9)

On the other hand, Gadhafi turned to the Western Libyan tribes especially his own two tribes, Tripolitania and Magarha. During Gadhafi’s long government, he encouraged the policy of supporting the allegiant tribes along with his endeavor for tearing up the opposing tribes’ army.

(outernationalist.net)

Racial and tribal contentions and efforts to marginalizing the government’s opposing tribes was one of the most important reasons for great national uprisings in Libya.

Urbanization Phenomenon Fast Expansion

Urbanization phenomenon fast expansion in Egypt and Tunisia and relative expansion

of the mentioned phenomenon in Libya during 1990s and 2000s was considered as one of the

indirect factors in emergence of national movements in Northern Africa. Urbanization expansion

which caused the shaping a kind of citizenship right in these countries, had consequences such as formation of middle class in these societies which culturally had high levels of the ability to utilize the up to date technologies. In spite of having higher educations, regarding possessing the jobs superposing with their proficiency and enjoying the appropriate social welfare standards faced harsh limitations which in long term changed them to a potentially dissatisfied class in these countries especially in Egypt and Tunisia. (McGrath, com, 2011: 88)

Ignoring the Women Social Status

Relative ignorance toward women and ignoring their social status in these countries were other reasons for almost half of population’s dissatisfaction in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya.

This fact which goes back to some extent to general characteristics of these paternal societies appertained to Egypt and Libya. (Juan and Shahin Cole, 2011) However, all women in Egypt, Libya and Tunisia were deeply dissatisfied with that most of their rights were ignored and were highly fond of change in this situation and improvement of social and cultural situation of theirs.

(www.Mehrkhane.com/Islamic Awakening/2012)

4- Social Factors

Mass Media Censorship

Suffocation existence in media platforms and widespread censorship implementation on mass media of these countries was another reason for national movements in Egypt, Libya and Tunisia. Hence, in spite of Egyptian and Tunisian Constitutions affirmation of freedom of expression protection; all mass media were under severe security powers’ observation and many of the opposing media characters during 1980s, 1990s and 2000s were captured and imprisoned.

(Des Medias, 2007: 11)

Suffocation dominating the media platforms in Northern African countries was such a disaster that the international committee to protect the journalist accounted Egypt, Libya and Tunisia and a few other countries as the first rank in the world list 2010 regarding imprisoning the journalists, bloggers and internet activists. (Http://outernationalist.net)

The media freedom oppression severity exerted by Ben Ali’s government reached its pick in 2000s in a way that international committee to protect journalists since 1988 has announced Tunisia every year one of the ten biggest enemies of world media.

(www.committeetoprotectjornalist.com/2011) And Reporters without Borders Organization also declared Ben Ali as one of the leaders of media freedom oppression all over the world. (Www.

Reporters without Borders.com/2011)

Media censorship intensity, independent websites filtering and imprisoning government’s opposing bloggers wave in Egypt during the beginning and the mid-2000s was in a way that Egyptian Information Minister in 2005 officially announced forereach of perspicuous and independent mass media arena which was considered the first official admission by one of the Egyptian high authorities about implementing severe censorship against mass media and virtual space in this country. (The Role of media in Egypt, 2010: 9)

Individual freedom oppression in Libya also during 1980s 1990s and 2000s was exerted as severely as possible and this especially in censoring media and imprisoning the government’s opposing bloggers in 2009 and 2010 was as much intense that Libya was declared as the most censored country during these years in Middle East and Northern Africa by Media Freedom House. (Http://freedom house.org/2011)

Schools of Thought Inefficiency

One of the most important factors in emergence of great political changes in Northern African countries was public dissatisfaction with inefficiency of different ideologies such as Nationalism, Secularism, Socialism and Pan-Arabism in these countries. (Dehghani, 1391: 3) Actually the unsuccessful experience of Socialist and Liberalist systems and inefficiency of these schools of thought in fulfilling Egyptian, Tunisian and Libyan goals has caused people anger and cruelty with governments which ultimately emanated in the shape of great national uprisings. A significant example of this was Egyptian government, obeying Socialism during Gamal Abdel Nasser government and then turning to Capitalism system during Anwar El Sadat and after that Hosni Mubarak who practically made this country a plaything in Western and Eastern camps.

This situation in Tunisia was also more or less the same during Habib Bourguiba and Ben Ali’s government and the dominating semi-Democratic system practically had no resemblance to Democracy. In Libya also where Gadhafi claimed founding a kind of special Arabic Socialism, in spite of fascinating slogans of the leader, no attention was paid to creating equality among people and the governing regime practically had the situation of tribal systems which everybody were obliged to accept the tribe chief’s laws. (Arab Ahmadi: 9)

Returning to Noble (Pure) Islam

Returning to noble Islam and establishing governments based on Islamic laws was another important expectation of Egyptians, Libyans and Tunisians. Actually these countries leaders’ distance from Islamic doctrine and ignoring Islamic laws were important provokers of Muslim population in expressing their opposition to governing systems. (www.mehrkhane.com/

2012) Hence, one of the important slogans in huge strikes in different cities in Egypt and Tunisia

during the pick of civil wars in Libya was establishing Islamic Governments and all major national societies on Fridays and in Fridays’ Praying locations gathered to support this aim.

(Feddlers, 2011: 4-5)

This also called Islamic Awakening is the best testimony of Egyptians, Tunisians and Libyans Islam seeking which some analysts recall as Islamic Human Honoring. (Diplomatic citizen, No 54)

Destroying National Pride

National humiliation and damaging the historical identity of Northern African people especially in Egypt and Tunisia was another important factor that was very effective in organizing the national uprisings in this region. Actually, these countries’ leaders’ nonnegotiable obedience of Western governments raged these nations and especially educated youth criticized Ben Ali and Mubarak’s actions in following the West and accused their statesmen for suppressing the Arab alliance and Palestinians’ destiny in exchange for financial help and credit from US and Europe. This situation was much severe in Egypt and most of Egyptian opposing youngsters condemned this country’s receiving financial help from US - 2 billion dollars a year and US explicit and implicit interferences in this country’s internal affairs, passive policy against Israel’s activities in 2006 attack to Southern Lebanon and blocking Rafah in Gaza Stripe in 2008 – 2009 and recognized that an ancient country like Egypt now has become this degraded and that in Arab world has shifted from a leading country to a semi-poppet one as the ill results of Mubarak’s operation. (Shirazi, 1390: 11)

Also, in Libya the situation was more or less the same and Gadhafi’s sudden return to West in mid-2000s and forgetting about his apparently revolutionary slogans about Islamic world raged this country’s nation and they recognized his insensible policies as a kind of treason to their goals.

5- New Communication Channels Expansion

Fast growth of new communication channels including Internet and Cell phones especially in Egypt and Tunisia was another reason for the increasing level of public knowledge of people especially receiving new information about governing family’s corruption. According to 2009 statistics, these nations’ access to new communication channels especially Internet has been in a way that almost half of the Tunisians and a quarter of Egyptians easily have had access to this new technology and through that a huge volume of reports concerning these countries’

political and social situation was available to people. Regarding this, in 2010 the number of

Internet users reached 22 million and the number of cell phone users passed 60 million which included a vast number of country young generation. (Mehrnameh, 1390: 118) This, though in Libya comparing to Egypt and Tunisia happened on a lower level; yet, in 2010, 232000 individuals in this country were considered as daily Internet users. Considering the characteristics of the limited and perfectly traditional society of Libya and the underrate number of Internet users in the beginning of 2000s that were only less than ten thousand, this number shows the significant growth of new communication technologies in this country. (www.cia.gov/

2011)

Apart from their informant role, the new connection technologies were manifested as the utilizes for all social classes to be united and the networks such as Facebook, Twitter and YouTube along with a pile of blogs and messaging networks, by exchanging a huge volume of information among the Internet users from 2008 to 2010 in a way were the bedder for these great uprisings. (Matilda, 2011: 11)

These communication networks expansions in Egypt and Tunisia during the months before the start of national uprising increased in a way that some of these Internet networks looked like virtual parties and through public summons (callings) for demonstrations against the government prepared the basics for the uprising in Egypt. (www.washington post.com) According to the researches done more than 55 to 70 percent of the protesters in Egypt and Tunisia were the young people who used the cyber space for their organizations. (www.Atlantic- club.org/Nov 8 th-9th 2011)

Parallel to virtual space, regional news networks also played an important role in information exchange and illustration of social corruption and suffocation dominating the countries of Northern Africa and the analysts and reporters of Aljazeera and Al-Alam news networks regarding the social, political and economic situation of Libya, Egypt and Tunisia were to some extent effective in provoking the public emotions against the leaders of these countries.

(www.Aljazeera.org)

Along these networks, wikileaks confidential documents publication about the vast administrative and financial corruption dominating the countries of this region also played a significant role in preparing the basis for the national uprisings in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya which was highly intense in Tunisia. (Www.Helium.com/2011)

The new communication technologies effect on national uprisings in Northern Africa

was in a way that some of the analysts recognized the Internet networks and satellite channels

one of the most important factors in the protest movements.

Conclusion

Although this article is mainly about the reasons of great national uprisings emergence in some regions of Northern Africa; yet, what is definite is that Egyptians, Tunisians and Libyans still have not reached their goals and the process of the last year events has been in a way that shows west and especially US still try to maintain the existing situation in this region. Hence, at least up to the time this article was written, than about two years has passed since the start of the national uprisings in Northern Africa, only some superficial changes have occurred in these countries and the most important desire of Northern Africa people which is Democracy establishment has been silenced, when Mohamed Morsi in Egypt and Moncef Marzouki in Tunisia came to power who are both in a way supporter of West long term interests. Many important authorities of Mubarak and Ben Ali’s regimes are still present in administrative positions and have maintained their responsibilities. Also in Libya, the process of events is that although some serious actions have taken place in order to establish civil institutes; still, no principled agreement has been made about the next political system.

On the other hand, the economic problems especially the high rate of inflation, increasing unemployment and public welfare low level still exist in these countries and it does not seem that any serious action will take place in order to reduce these disasters at least until a few years later due to the fact that these problems to some extent go back to the mentioned countries economic structure. However, peoples’ dissatisfaction with Egypt, Tunisia and Libya position degradation in international levels still exists with the same warmth as the days of the national uprisings and one of its significant examples was holding some great seminars in different cities of Egypt, Tunisia and Libya in order to object to governments’ passive policies about world issues. The Libyans’ highest level of anger during the process of protests was in response to the abusive movie production about Prophet Muhammad (PBUH) which ended up in US ambassador’s murder.

Along this, Egyptians and Tunisians’ objections to the governments about the continuing political relation with Israel and emphasizing on the necessity of a new approach about Palestine issue still exists.

Of course, in an optimistic approach one should say that national uprisings in Northern

Africa in the past year also has have good achievements, the most important ones of which are

the collapse of some brutal Dictatorships, Israel role paling in the region, gradual shaping of new

civil institutes, providing necessary bases in order to establish Democratic systems, people’s

confidence in their solidarity power, the beginning of Islamic parties’ activity, gradual Islamic

doctrine dominance in different sections of the society, the suffocation wave dominating the

mass media fade, the universities entrance to contemplation and so on. Surely if this situation continues, the region population will witness the establishment of systems based on Democracy (even if they are semi-Democratic) in their own countries.

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Pollak, Kenneth m: understanding the Arab Awakening. Retrieved from: http://www.brookings.edu/2011 Rania Al Malky “Too Late to Save Egypt’s Revolution?” Retrieved from: Egypttoday.com/2010

Shirazi, hamid: Islamic Awakening in North Africa, Causes and Consequences, Diplomatic Bulletin, Tehran, 1390,

no.2

Transparency International “corruption perception Index” 2010, Retrieved from Http://www.Transparency.Org/

2010

UNDP, Arab Human Development Report: challenges in Human security in the Arab Countries, New York:

Regional Bureau for Arab states 2009. Retrieved from Http://www.undp.org

Www.Atlantic-club.org/acb events/the new Arab spring: what happened, what it means and what comes next/Nov 8 th-9

2011

Www.Human Rights watch.com/North Africa/2010 Www.Reporters without Borders.com/2011 Www.Tunisia.com/Social Affairs Ministry/2010 www.aljazeera.com/Africa/30 oct. 2011 www.Amensty International.org/2009

www.cia.gov/2011/worldfact book/north Africa/Tunisia www.committee to protect journalist.com/2011 www.corruption perception index.com

www.economist.com: “Building a new Libya” march 2011 www.Egyption organization for Human right.org

www.freedom House.Org/201 Www.Geopolicity.Com www.Human Rights.Watch.org Www.Imf.Org/Egypt/2010

www.Imf.org/North Africa/Tunisia/2010 www.Irinnews.org/2011

www.Mehrkhane.com/Islamic Awakening/2012 www.Reuters Africa.org/March 2009

www.washingtonpost.com/Middle east turmoil/March 11, 2011 www.washingtonpost.com/Middle east turmoil/March 11, 2011 www.worldbank.org/2011

Zakaria, farid “A Region at War with Its History” Retrieved from: http://www.time.com

【報告

3：対訳】

北アフリカ（エジプト，チュニジア，リビア）における  国民的大規模騒乱の発生原因 

アミル・バフラム・アラブ・アフマディ

2011 年に世界で最も重要であった政治的出来 事の一つは，中東アラブ諸国および北アフリカで の国民的大規模騒乱のドミノ倒し的な発生であ る。エジプト，チュニジア，リビア，イエメン，

バーレーン，シリアといった国々を激しいハリ ケーンのように次々と襲い，エジプト，リビア，

チュニジア，イエメンにおいては支配体制が崩壊 した。嵐のようなこの政治的状況は，バーレーン やシリアでは現在でもなお進行中であり，この地 域の国々で将来においてさらに重大な結果をもた らす可能性を孕んでいる。

この国民的騒乱の発生には多方面にわたる原因 が作用しており，それらは直接的または間接的に 北アフリカの体制崩壊に影響を及ぼし，中東アラ ブ諸国に重大な政治的変化をもたらしている。諸 原因の中で最も重要視されているのは，これら社 会の政治的閉塞および独裁制，根深い経済問題お よびその帰結，イスラム法を無視する統治者，官 僚腐敗，そして国民の栄光を再生し，最終的な民 主主義システムを創立するための努力である。

北アフリカ地域諸国における騒乱の重要な点 は，西欧のアナリストと現地研究者が背後にある 原因を探るにあたって，異なるアプローチをした ことである。昨年を通じて西欧の研究者は，これ らの出来事の起源をそれぞれの国の経済的問題に 繋げようと試みたが，経済問題のほかに，北アフ リカ諸国をとりまく政治的状況とその地を支配す る独裁制に対する人々の不満が重要な要因とされ るべきであることは明白である。それがエジプト，

リビア，チュニジアといった国における隠れてい た怒りを刺激し，同時に，自己の神髄への回帰と

社会的支柱としてのイスラムを求めるようになっ たことも，この大規模な運動の重要な要因として 考えられる。

一般的に，これら諸国の大規模な騒乱の過程を 調査してみると，一連の政治，経済，社会，文化 的要因が絡み合っており，それぞれの要因の役割 は他の要因と比較されうるものではない，と結論 づけることができる。

北アフリカ諸国における大規模騒乱：革命か 社会運動か

チュニジア，エジプト，リビアにおける国民的 騒乱に関しては，これらの国々で起こっている変 革を革命であると主張する西欧のアナリストもい るが，社会運動として捉えられるべきである。こ れを分析するには， 「革命とは一般的に，社会，政 治制度，社会構造，指導体制，諸活動，政策に関 する支配的な価値の急激で，原理的で，荒々しい 変革である」という学術的定義を用いる必要があ る。（Huntington, 1370: 385）

革命は，さらに，指導者による民衆の導き，特 定のイデオロギー，路上に出現する群衆，政治支 配システムの原理的変革への努力，従来状況の拒 否，望ましい状況の探求，原理的変革の要求によ る支配体制への挑戦，突発的現象，国家的方向転 換などの明確な特徴を含む。（Khoramshad, 1390:

40-41） 上述の各国で起こっている変革は，決意

の固い指導者，イデオロギーといった重要な指標

を欠いており，政治構造および支配的価値の大規

模な変化も起こっていない。それゆえこれらの騒

乱は， 「社会に急激で原理的な変化を要求する革命 的運動」 （Koen, 1378: 407）とは大きく異なる「政 治 的 お よ び 経 済 的 動 機 を 伴 っ た 国 民 的 運 動 」

（JalaiePoor, 1381: 19-20）として認識されうる。

1．政治的要因

政治的自由の欠如

各国の騒乱において経済的要因は確かに重要な 役割を演じた。しかしながら，経済の組織化が不 十分であったことをこれらの運動の発生のもっと も重要な要因であるとする西欧のアナリストの仮 定（Http://read and comment.com/2011）に反して，

1990 年代から 2000 年代にかけてこれらの国々を 支配していた多様な兆候を含む深刻な政治的閉塞 こそが運動の主要な要因として言及される必要が ある。（Montalser, Garcia, 2011: 32-3）

フ リ ー ダ ム ・ ハ ウ ス 研 究 所 （ Freedom House Instiute）の 2011 年報告書によると，2010 年にお ける北アフリカ地域の政治的自由は世界政治的閉 塞リストにおいて 78％を示し，もっとも酷いもの であった。同研究所は政党活動の制限，国会議員 および大統領選挙の法的正当性の欠如などを列挙 し，中でもメディアと表現の自由の激しい抑圧を，

エジプト，リビア，チュニジアをはじめとする北 アフリカ諸国における政治的閉塞のもっとも可視 的な指標として挙げている。 （www.freedom House.

org/2011）このことに平行して，抗議者の弾圧，

活動家の逮捕と拷問，何らかの運動家の長期勾留 や殺害も，各国の政治的自由の欠如の構成要素と して考えられている。 （www.Geopolicity.com/2011）

これらの社会において支配者は，政治的領域の 解放を極度に恐れており，各社会階層の政治改革 が国内に緊張をもたらし，イスラム過激派に力を 与 え， 国 の 安 定 と治 安 を 脅 か すと 信 じ て い た 。

（Foreign policy, 2011: 55-6） これらの国々，と りわけエジプトとチュニジアにおいては 1990 年 代から 2000 年代には，大統領の権限の増大と敵対 的政治グループへの監視強化のため，政治改革は ほとんど行なわれなかった。 （Alhannani, 2009: 29）

独裁

社会を支配する警察的な雰囲気を伴う強力な独 裁と巨大で広範におよぶ治安制度の存在は，国民 が支配者に対する不満を高める要因であり続け た。エジプトの治安機関の増大とチュニジアとリ ビアにおける恐ろしい治安制度は，各国における 政治的抵抗を形作る上で間接的に重要な役割を果 たした。 （Le Monde Diplomatique, March 2011） 人 権団体からの様々な報告によると，裁判なしでの 政治活動家の拷問，殺害，長期勾留はこれらの国々 おいて広く行なわれてきた。リビアにおいてはこ の状況は更に厳しく，1980 年代から 1990 年代に 国民の不満の兆候が現われた際に，カダフィは反 体制勢力を残忍に弾圧し始め，リビア政府は「反 体制的政党の設立は設立者の死を意味する」と宣 言した。（The Middle East Quarterly, 2011: 69-70）

人権監視団体「ヒューマン・ライツ・ウォッチ」

によると，リビアでは 2009 年だけで 1200 名の収 監者が殺害されたが，同じ時期にカダフィは人権 支持者を自称していた。（www.HumanRightsWach.

org/2011）

2000 年代におけるエジプトでの政治的人物の 拷問および処刑も，アムネスティ・インターナショ ナルや人権監視団体の主な異議申し立て対象と なった。アムネスティ・インターナショナルは 2007 年の報告書で，政治上の反対勢力の拷問を行 なうエジプトを世界の拷問センターとして記述し た。（www.Amnesty International.org/2009）

同様の状況はベンアリによる支配を 23 年に渡っ て受けたチュニジアでも起こり，多くの政治活動 家が死刑または長期勾留を言い渡された。 （Pollak, 2001: 2）

議会選挙での明らかな不正手段

北アフリカ諸国の政府の民主化プロセスにおけ

る明白な象徴の一つは，1990 年代から 2000 年代

に何度も繰り返された議会選挙および大統領選挙

での明らかな不正行為であり，決して洗練されて

いるとは言い難いやり方で支配者は自分の都合の

良いように投票結果を改竄した。こういった不正

選挙の中でもっとも重大だったのは， 2010 年に行

われたエジプトの議会選挙であり，政府に反対す る政治活動家が数多く逮捕された。選挙における 明らかな不正により与党は 423 議席を獲得し，絶 対多数を得た。 （Movaseghi, 1390: 117） 30 年にお よぶムバラク政権の間に大統領選挙も同じ状況に あった。ムバラクは強力な対立候補のいない大統 領選挙で四度勝利したのである。ライバルは存在 しなかったものの，それでも選挙結果は彼の有利 となるよう改竄された。（Guardian, 11 Feb 2011）

驚くべきことに，非常な高齢にも関わらずホス ニ・ムバラクは 2011 年の大統領選挙への出馬を 2010 年に公式表明したが，その後大規模な国民的 抵抗に遭遇し，政権内部の有力者からも反対され たため，自分の息子ジャマル・ムバラクを大統領 に据えるための基盤を提供しようとした。 （Wehba, 2011: 43-4）

チュニジアの状況もエジプトと似ており，政権 は何度も議会選挙および大統領選挙の結果を都合 の良いように改竄してきた。政府が発表する大統 領選の選挙結果はベン・アリの勝利，そして，議 会選挙では与党の絶対多数獲得の繰り返しであっ た。

1977 年以降カダフィが自身を国の精神的指導 者として宣言したリビアにおいては，基本的に大 統領選挙は行われず，国会に相当する機関は存在 しない。そのため国民の信念と理念を代表しない 政府には不正行為をする必要がなかったのであ る。

2．経済的要因

組織化が不十分な経済の拡大

チュニジアとエジプト（そしてある程度までリ ビア）において騒乱を引き起こした最も重要な要 因の一つは，高インフレ率といった経済問題の深 刻化である。チュニジアとエジプトは，西欧諸国 によって推奨された「大中東計画」として知られ る計画に基づいて 2000 年代初頭より大規模な経 済改革を開始し，それによって国民総生産を増加 させ，経済における政府の関与を減少し，税率と 関税率を低下させた。しかしこういった経済改革

は不十分な結果に終わり，この二国はそれぞれの 事 情に 応 じ て 経 済問 題 を 悪 化 させ た の で あ る 。

（Zakaria, 2011: 25-6） 大規模に宣伝されたチュ ニジアとエジプトの経済改革により，エジプトの 経済成長率は 2006 年から 2008 年にかけて 7％，

2010 年に 6％上昇し，チュニジアも 2006 年から

2009 年にかけて経済成長したが（www.cia.gov/

2011），両国で既に存在していた格差をさらに拡大 させる結果となった。現地の指標よりも世界銀行 と IMF によって設計された枠組みにそって実行さ れた経済改革は，導入当初は両国の社会の一定層 の富を増し，成長をもたらしたように見えた。し かしこの恩恵に授かった人々はごくわずかであ り，経済成長による物価上昇は小売業者，農家，

過疎地の住民，労働者，移民といった貧困層を直 撃したのである。（www.Irinnews.org/2011） この ほか，政治改革を欠いた経済自由化による経済成 長と，政治部門と経済部門における平等の欠如は，

統治に関与する知識層の腐敗をますます助長し，

エジプトとチュニジアの国民の不満を高めたので ある。（Dunne, Jan 31 2011）

リビアの経済問題も同国における騒乱の最も重 要な要素の一つである。リビアの石油採掘の大部 分を占めるリビア東部における福祉状況を政府が 無視したことが中でも重要な問題であった。

（www.economist.com/2011）

さらに，大都市住民に水を提供する人工河川の 建設にも関わらず，下水道などの都市のインフラ はとりわけ下水を欠くいくつかの大都市のみに建 設され，これらの地域の人々にとって甚大な環境 問題を引き起こした。（Times, March 2011: 40）

これに加えて，リビアの人々は約束された建設 計画の遅延に怒りを溜めていた。もちろん，国民 の間で高まる不満に気づいたカダフィは 2000 年 代にいくつかの改革を試み， 2008 年には石油から 得られる収入を近く国民の間で分配し，それが年 間 2 万 2 千ドルとなるであろうことを宣言した。

しかしながら，こういった約束は彼の失脚までス

ローガンに留まったのである。 （www.aljazeera.com）

大衆の窮乏の拡大

エジプトとチュニジアにおける経済改革の帰結 の一つは，特にエジプトで顕著となった貧困層を 直撃した貧困の拡大であるが，西欧のアナリスト の中にはそれをもってして国民的騒乱のもっとも 重要な要因とする者もいる。（Attia, 2008: 19-20）

国連開発計画の 2011 年報告書によると，中東アラ ブ諸国では不適切な経済政策のため， 2010 年には 25 歳以下の人口の 50％が貧困線以下の生活をして いる。（www.UNDP..Org/Arab Human Development Report/2010）大規模な経済改革にも関わらずこの ような状況となったエジプトでは，国民全体の五 分の一が貧困状態にあり，農村部の一般貧困率は 40％上昇した。（www.worldbank.org/2010） また，

国民の 40～44％の収入は一日 2 ドル以下であり，

絶対的貧困状態にあることを示している。（www.

Imf.org/2010）

2010 年に国民的大規模騒乱が勃発した時点で チュニジア社会は貧困に支配されており，チュニ ジア社会省の統計によると同国民の四分の一から 六分の一にあたる人々が深刻な窮乏状態にあっ た。 （www.Tunisia.com/Social Affairs Ministry/2010）

リビアでは，政府が石油から莫大な富を得てい るにも関わらず，貧困は倒錯的現象として存在して いた。国民の大部分，とりわけ東部居住者は絶対的 貧困状態におかれ，日常生活に必要な設備すらも剥 奪されていたのである。（http://www.indexmundi.

com）

失業

特にエジプトとチュニジアで顕著であった失業 問題も国民的不満の高まりの要因となっていた。

この状況は 1990 年代から 2000 年代にかけて組織 化が不十分であった経済に起因し， 2000 年代後半 にピークに達する。国連開発計画の 2010 年報告書 によると，2005 年から 2009 年までの北アフリカ 地域の若者の失業率は 23％以上にのぼり，世界平 均（13％）のおよそ二倍にあたる。そして 2000 年 代後半に失業者全体に若者が占める割合は 83％

に達したのである。（WWW.UNDP.org/2010: 108）

このことは 2000 年代後半のこれらの国々におけ

る相対的な経済成長に比較して，経済改革の途上 における深刻な問題であった。2005 年から 2006 年にかけてのチュニジアの失業率は 27％にのぼ

り，その 65％が若者で占められていた。また，高

等教育を受けた若者の大部分が未熟練労働者向け の職に就かねばならなかった。（Ibid: 109）

エジプトも同様の状況にあり，政府統計による と 2010 年の失業率はおよそ 10％であるが（www.

Imf.Org/Egypt/2010），非公式な統計は 15％以上の 失業率を示唆している。 （www.Alahram Enghlish.org/

2010）

2000 年代を通じて，リビアの失業率は同国の もっとも深刻な問題として認識されており，政府 の包括的な経済制度が存在しているにもかかわら ず，リビア市民の 13％が失業しており，16％の家 庭が定収入を欠いていた。これは，労働力不足を 理由に様々な部門におよそ 100 万人の外国人労働 者を受け入れた際にこの問題は起こった。（www.

ReutersAfrica.org/March 2009）

3．社会的要因

統治機構の腐敗の広がり

これらの国々の行政，財政，統治システム上層 部における腐敗の広がり，指導者一族による公共 財の私的濫用も重要な異議申し立ての対象であ り，リビア，チュニジア，エジプトにおける騒乱 では主なスローガンとなった。（29th International system Dynamics conference, July 2011: pp.17-18）

この大いなる社会的悲劇は， 1990 年代から 2000 年代にかけてピークに達し，放埒な各国政府は国 庫を荒廃させ，スイスの銀行口座の預金残高を天 文学的な数字で膨れ上がらせた。 （Hibou & Hulsey, 2006: 202）

これら三カ国の政府の腐敗はほぼ同レベルにあ

る。チュニジアにおいてザイン・アル＝アビディ

ン・ベン・アリ［前大統領］とレイラ・トラベル

ジィ夫人は多くの銀行を支配下に置き，国中のす

べての銀行取引の 50％は直接彼らの口座に振り込

まれたのである。 （www.Helium.com） 2010 年の世

界腐敗リストにおいてチュニジアは 59 位を占め

た。（www.corruption perception index.com/2011）

リビアにおける政府の腐敗も同様に酷く，同国 の支配階級の財政腐敗は 2010 年において 2.2％で 世界腐敗リスト（178 カ国中）の 146 位を占めた。

（www.corruption perception index.com/2010） 41 年におよぶカダフィ支配の間に，主要な商取引は 直接カダフィまたは彼の一族の監視を受け，国の 資産のほとんどすべてが彼の管理下にあった。カ ダフィの死後に公表された彼の資産は 80 億ユー ロにのぼり，彼を世界有数の資産家としたのであ る。（The Economist, 1 April/2011）

エジプトの統治機構の腐敗もリビアやチュニジ アとほぼ同様の状況だった。ホスニ・ムバラクと 彼の妻子は銀行，産業，資源の大部分を掌握して おり，外国からの投資は大統領自身に多額の支払 いをしない限り不可能であった。イギリスおよび スイスの銀行に預けられたムバラクの資産は数億 ドルを超え，スイスにある彼の口座の一つだけで 4 億 7200 万ドルを超過した。 （Al Malky, 2010: 12）

2010 年世界腐敗リストによると，エジプトの腐敗 ランキングは 178 カ国中 89 位となっている。

（www.corruptionperceptionindex.com）

1990 年代から 2000 年代にかけての北アフリカ 諸国における行政および財政の腐敗は司法界にも 拡大するようになり，高い地位にある判事の多く が賄賂を得て政治家に有利な判決を出していた。

（www.washingtonpost.com/March 11,2011）

民族集団間の敵対関係

異なる民族および部族間の偏りと特定部族の軽 視は，最終的には文字通りの内戦となったリビア における運動のもっとも重要な原因の一つであ る。この歴史は数世紀におよぶリビアの社会構造，

オスマン帝国による支配，ついでイタリアによる 支配にまで遡る。アラブ系とベルベル系を含む 140 におよぶ部族は一般的に西部部族と東部部族 の二つのグループに分けることができる。この二 つのグループは遥か昔からある程度の敵対関係に あった。初代リビア王イドリース一世支配下にお いては，東部部族が彼の主要な支持者であった。

カダフィによる 1969 年のクーデターの後，彼が属

する西部部族が彼の支持者となった。この間東部 部族は先行体制の支持者と見なされ，カダフィの 怒りと残忍さの対象となった。 （Arab Ahmadi, 1390:

9）

他方，カダフィは西部部族，とりわけ彼自身の 部族であるトリポリタニアとマガルハの二部族を 優遇した。長期におよぶカダフィ支配の間，彼に 忠実な部族の支援政策を奨励し，その間反対勢力 の部族を引き裂くことにも力を入れてきた。

（outernationalist.net）

民族および部族間の対立，反政府的部族を周縁 化する試みは，リビアにおける国民的騒乱の重要 な原因の一つである。

都市化現象の急速な拡大

1990 年代から 2000 年代にかけての都市化がエ ジプトとチュニジアで急速に拡大し，リビアでも かなりの拡大を見せたことは，北アフリカ国民運 動発生の間接的な要因として考えられる。都市化 の拡大は，市民の権利意識の形成につながり，こ れらの社会における高い文化レベルにあり，最新 のテクノロジーを使いこなす能力を備えた中産階 級の形成を招いた。高等教育を受けても能力に見 合った職を見つけることができず社会福祉の恩恵 にも授かることがなかった人々は，とりわけエジ プトとチュニジアにおいて，長期的かつ潜在的に 不満を溜め込むことになったのである。 （McGrath, com, 2011: 88）

女性の社会的地位への無関心

これらの国々における女性とその社会的地位へ の相対的無関心は，国民の半数が不満を高める原 因となった。このことはある程度まで，エジプト やリビアの家父長社会の一般的特徴に起因してい るが（Juan and Shahin Cole, 2011），エジプト，リ ビア，チュニジアのすべての女性達が自分達の権 利がほとんど無視されていることに激しい不満を 抱いており，この状況の変化と社会・文化的改良 を切望していたのである。（www.Mehrkhane.com/

Islamic Awakening/2012）

4．社会的要因

マスメディアの検閲

メディアの閉塞状況および広く行われている検 閲も，エジプト，リビア，チュニジアの国民運動 のもう一つの原因となった。エジプトとチュニジ アの憲法には表現の自由が記されているが，あら ゆるマスメデイアは治安権力の厳しい監視を受 け，反体制的なメディアに関わった多くの人々が 1980 年から 2000 年代にかけて逮捕，監禁されて きた。（Des Medias, 2007: 11）

北アフリカ諸国を支配するメディアの閉塞状況 は非常に厳しいものであり，ジャーナリスト保護 委員会はエジプト，リビア，チュニジアおよびい くつかの国をジャーナリスト，ブロガー，インター ネット活動家の拘禁がもっとも酷い国であると報 告した。（Http://outernationalist.net）

ベン・アリ政権によるメディアの自由の弾圧は 2000 年代にピークを迎え， 1988 年以来ジャーナリ スト保護委員会は毎年世界のメディアの敵の一つ にチュニジアを挙げてきた。 （www.committeetopro tectjornalist.com/2011） 国境なき記者団もベン・

アリを世界でもっとも報道の自由を抑圧する指導 者だと表明した。（www.Reporters without Borders.

com/2011）

2000 年代前半から半ばにかけてのエジプトにお ける厳しいメディアの検閲，独立ウェブサイトの フィルタリング，反政府的なブロガーの拘禁につ いて，エジプトの情報省は 2005 年に明快な独立マ スメディア部門の前進であると公式に発表するに 至った。このことは，エジプト当局によるマスメ ディアとインターネット空間に対する厳しい検閲 の実行についての初の公式承認と考えられてい る。（The Role of media in Egypt, 2010: 9）

リビアにおいても 1980 年代から 2000 年代にか けて個人の自由は激しく弾圧され，とくにメディ アの検閲と反政府ブロガーの拘禁は 2009 年から 2010 年にかけて非常に激しいものであった。その ため，中東・北アフリカ地域においてもっとも検 閲の酷い国であるとメディア・フリーダム・ハウ

スは表明した。（http://freedom house.org/2011）

無能な思想諸派

北アフリカ諸国における大きな政治的変革の発 生における重要な要因のひとつは，これらの国々 におけるナショナリズム，世俗主義，社会主義，

汎アラブ主義といった各イデオロギーの無能ぶり に対する不満である。（Dehghani, 1391: 3） 社会 主義および自由主義システムの失敗に終わった経 験およびそういった不十分な思想がエジプト，

チュニジア，リビアを支配したことにより政府に 対する人々の怒りはつのり，大規模な騒乱に至る までとなった。特にエジプトの例は顕著であり，

ガマル・アブドゥル＝ナセル政権の間は社会主義 に従い，サダト政権の時には資本主義制度に鞍替 えし，その後はホスニ・ムバラクが同国を東西対 立のおもちゃにした。ハビーブ・ブルギバとベン・

アリ政権のチュニジアにおいても状況はほぼ同様 で，民主主義とはまったく異なる半民主主義シス テムが支配した。カダフィがアラブ社会主義を 謳ったリビアでも似たようなものであり，指導者 の魅力的なスローガンにも関わらず，人々の間の 平等の確立には一切関心が払われず，支配体制の とった手法は部族長の法に誰もが従わなくてはな らない部族システムのようなものであった。 （Arab Ahmadi: 9）

高貴な（純粋な）イスラムへの回帰

高貴なイスラムに回帰しイスラム法に基づく政 府を設立することも，エジプト，リビア，チュニ ジアの人々の重要な望みだった。これらの国々の 指導者がイスラムの教義から距離をとり，イスラ ム法を無視したことはイスラム教徒に対する重大 な挑発行為であり，信者たちは統治システムへの 異議を表明した。 （www.mehrkhane.com/2012） エ ジプトやチュニジアの様々な都市での大規模スト ライキおよびリビア内戦のピークでの重要なス ローガンの一つはイスラム政府の樹立であり，こ の目的を支援するために大部分の国民が金曜日に 集結したり，金曜礼拝に集結したのである。

（Feddlers, 2011: 4-5）