Political Economy of Structural Adjustments : Indonesia's Case

Political Economy of Structural Adjustments : Indonesia's Case 

著者 SUZUKI Yuji

出版者 Institute of Comparative Economic Studies, Hosei University

journal or

publication title

Journal of International Economic Studies

volume 5

page range 119‑127

year 1991‑03

URL http://doi.org/10.15002/00002089

JoumaIoflntemationaIEconomicStudies（1”l）No.5,119-127

o199IThelnstituteofComparativeEconomicStudies,HoseiUniversily

ＰＯＬＩＴＩＣＡＬＥＣＯＮＯＭＹＯＦＳＴＲＵＣＴＵＲＡＬＡＤJUSTMENTS：

ＩＮＤＯＮＥＳＩＡ，ＳＣＡSＥ

YujiSUZUKI

Prq/i2ssor,ＲＪＣﾛﾉ(ｙＱ/Ｌａｗ，Hosej〔ﾉﾉ'んelrﾉリ

ThepoliticalprocessesofallnatiｏｎｓａｒｅｗｉｄｅＴａｎｄｄｅｅｐｅｒｔｈａｎｔｈｅｆoTmal institutionsdesignedtoregulatethem；someofthemostcriticaldecisions

concemingofpubliclifea｢ｅｎｏｔｍａｄｅｉｎｐａ｢Iiamentsandpresidiums:theyare

madeintheunfOrmalizedrealmofwhatDurkheimcalled“thecouective conscience，､..…Butinlndonesiathepattemofofficiallifeandtheframework ofpopularsentimentwithinwhichitsitshavebecomesodisjoinedthatthe actMtiesofgovernment､thoughcentrallyimportant,secmneverthelessalmost besidethepoint，mcreroutinismsconvuIsedagainandagainbysudden

irruptions.………CIiffOrdGecrtz1）

1．Introduction

lndonesiais，UlfSundhaussenargues，rarelyincludedincomparativesurveys because，ａｍｏｎｇothers，“thesubdisciplineoflndonesiawatchinghadbeen

extraordinarilypoliticized，makingitquiteunsuitablefbrcross-national

research''2）However，therecentchangesappeartomakeIndonesia，spolitical economynolongeruniqucHerrapideconomicdeveIopmentbuttressedbythe pricehikeofprimaryproductsincludingoilinthel970，shasbroughtaboutthe

deepeninglinkagebetweenIndonesianeconomyandtheexternalmarkets・Ｈｅｒ ｅｃｏｎｏｍｙｈａｓｔｏｂｅｌｏｏｋｅｄａｔｉｎａｇｌobalcontext・Ｉｔａｌｓｏｐｕｔａｎｅｎｄｔｏｔｈｅ ,，extraordinarilypoliticized,,interpretationsofhereconomy・Therehaveemelgeda numberofsocialchangesincludingthewideningrich-poorgap，thedcclineof environmentalcondiｔｉｏｎｓａｎｄｓｏｏｎ，thechangesofwhichcouldbefOund elsewhere､Structuralbynature,theseproblemsdemandanewsetofsolutionsln short，Indonesianeedstobeincludedincomparativesurveys・

ＴｈｅｃａｓｅｉｎｐｏｉｎｔｉｓｔｈｅｆａｃｔｔｈａｔＩｎｄonesiahasundergonetheprocessof

"structuraladjustments，，ｉｎmuchthesimilarwayinwhichmostofdeveloping nationswerefOrcedtotransfOrmtheirpoliticaIeconomiesDifferentinrangeand scopeofsuchatransfOrmation，however，theprocessinlndonesia，ｔｏｏ，includes suchmeasuresasthepncecontrolofexportingcommodities，fightingagainst inHation，theaccelerationof“export-oriented，，industrialization，theso-called

"deregulation”ofadministrativeguidances，“privatization，,ofstateownedorstate

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YujiSUZUKI

controlledcorporations，andsoon

InspiredbyIMEWorldBankandotherinternationalagencies,however,

Indonesiahastakensuchstepsonherowninitiative,ThereasonsfOrthisaremulti‐

fOldFirstofall,the"structuraladjustments"werearesponsetotheburgeoning deｍａｎｄｓｏｆｈｅｒｏｗｎｅｃｏｎｏｍｙＵｎdoubtedlyitwaseconomicadjustment、

Secondly，ｉｔｗａｓａｎａｔｔｅｍｐｔｂｙｔｈｅｇｏｖｅｍｍｅｎｔｔｏredistributethebenefitof

economicdeveIopmenttotherapidIywideninggapbetweentherichandthepoor、

TherefOreitwasansocialadjustmentaswelLAndthirdly,itwasapoliticalprocess inwhichtheagingpoliticaIreglmewishedtoreestabIishitslegitimacyinthefaccof increasingdemandsfOrdemocracy、

Fromtheabove,itissafetosuggestthatsuchacomplexprocessconstitutedthe

"structuraladjustments，，oflndonesia・Then,howitwent?Andwasitsuccessful?If so,whatwouldbetheoutcomesoftheprocess？InthefOllowing,IshaIImakesome attempts,ｆｉｒｓｔｏｆａｌＬｔｏｐｕｔｔｈｅ“structuraladjustments”ofthel980，sinthe historialperspectiveofIndonesia，SPOliticaleconomyAndthensecondly，Ishall dividetheprocessintothreestages,eachstageofwhichwillbelookedintomorein detaiLAndfinallylwilltouchbrieflyontheproblemsaswellasprospectswhich thewholeprocessofthe“structuraladjustments"wasimpingeduponbythevery factofdeepeninggloballinkages．

2．Pillarsoflndonesia：“ActiveNeutrality，，

SinceIndonesiaachievedherfuIlindependenceinl949,thepiIlarofherexternal relationｓｈａｓｂｅｅｎａｎ“activeneutraIity",orwhatthefirstvice-Presidentaswellas thethenPrimeMinister，MohammadHatta，calledａｓ“independentandactive,, fOreignpolicy・Atitsonset,itwastruetosaythatsuｃｈａｎidealorientationofher extemalrelationswasinspiredbyaconcernto“fendoffleft-wingdemandsfOrthe RepublictoalignitseIfwiththeSovietUnionand，correspondingly，toavoid

provokingtheDutchandalsoalienatingtheUnitedStates・''3)Yetitbecamemore

thananimmediateｍｅａｎｓｔｏｓｅｃurehernewlywonindependencelthasbecome Indonesia，ｓ“internationaloutlook，,，too・

ItsmainaimistoassuretheequalstatusasanindependentstateinthefamiIyof nations・Ｔｏｔｈｉｓｅｎｄ，itseekstodissociateherseIfasdistantaspossiblefromthe realityofintemationalpolitics，viz・ｐｏｗｅｒｐｏliticslndeeditdoesshareanumber ofcommonfeatureswiththetraditionalneutralitypracticedbyEuropeannations，

however，ｉｔｄｉｆｆｅｒｓｆｒｏｍｔｈｅｍｉｎｓｏｍｅｃｒｕｃｉａｌpoints・

Duetothedeepsuspicionofextemalforcesrootedinthecenmrieslongcolonial experience，ｆｉｒｓｔｏｆａｌＩ，ittendstoregardinternationalrelationsasanarenaof competition，ratherthanthatofcooperation、SecondIy，ａｓｈｅｒｓｅｌｆｉｍａｇｅｏｆ“a

virgingirlsurroundedbywolves''4)reveals,thecompetitiononequalfOotingisout

ofquestionfOrlndonesia・Ｉｎｔｕｒｎ，theso-caIledprotectivemeasuresａｒｅｓｊ"ｅ９“

"。〃ｆｂｒｔｈｅｗｅａｋＴｈｉrdly，thispoliticizedviewtendstoseeevennon-political interactionsasonebetweenfriendsandenemies，andmoreoftenthannot，

endorsesnalTowlydefinednationalism，ifnotxenophobiaFinally，ｉｔplaces

1２０－

ＰＯＬＩＴＩＣＡＬＥＣＯＮＯＭＹＯＦＳＴＲＵＣＴＵＲＡＬＡＤＪＵＳＴＭＥＮＴＳ：ＩＮＤＯＮＥＳＩＡＳＣＡＳＥ

paramountimportanceupontheallegiancetointernalunityinasocietywhose diversityisextremelywide-rangedlnotherwords,theconductoffOreignrelations isameanstoachieve“unityindiversity"，ｔｈｅｍ”o〃。，areoftheRepublic・

Ｆｒｏｍthese，Indonesianrelationstotheextemalworldmightappｅａｒｔｏｂｅｉｎ ｄｅｅｐｄｉｌｅｍｍａｂｅｔｗｅｅｎａｓｅarchofpassiveharmonyandtheoutrightresistance againstfOreignintewension，ｏｒｉｎＦ.Ｂ、Weinstein，sphrase“thedilemmaof

interdependence,,.s）ＳｕｃｈａｄＵｅｍｍａｈａｓｂｅｃｏｍｅｍｏｒｅｄｅｅｐｅｎedcspeciallyinthe

fieldofhereconomicrelationswiththeextemalworldsi､ｃｅｔｈｅｌａｔｅ1960,s、

Correspondingly，thehithertoexclusivelyparochialurgefornationalinteresthas beguntobeimpingeduponbytheincreasinglyforcefUldemandforaccommodating lndonesia，ifnotintheglobaleconomy，inanemergingregionaleconomicorder ｎａｍｅｌｙＡｓｉａａｎｄｔｈｅＰａｃｉｆｉｃｇｒｏｗｔｈｒegionCoupledwiththechangeofregime fromSukamotoSuharto，indeedlndonesiahasgonethroughdrasticchanges socially，economicaIly，andevenculturally，ｗｈｉｃｈＲ・Robisoncharacterizesas

"capitalistrevolution，,､6）Insuchahistoricalcontext，Indonisiaunderwentthe

processofadjustmeｎｔｓｉｎｔｈｅ1980,s．

3．SettingsfbrAdiustments

SincetheemergenceofOrcleBarⅢ，ｏｒｔｈｅＮｅｗＯｒｄｅｒｒｅｇｉｍｅｏｆＳｕｈａｒｔｏ，

Indonesiaunderwental80degreechangeinherfOreignpolicy，especiallyinits economicfieldSukamo,slife-longeffOrtfOrI7zdo"asjα"な“ｊ，orlndonesianiza‐

tion，wassoonreplacedwithModemjmsj，orModemization・Ｔｈｅpolicyof nationalizationoffOreigncapaitalwasabandoned，andinsteadadoptedwasthe promotionofforeigninvestments・Foreigncapitalsbecametobeseenasan indispensablecomponentofherownnationaleconomicdevelopment，ratherthan aneconomicarmfOrtheenemiestodominatetheRepublicThehugepublic spendingswhichhithertohadbroughtaboutahyperinflation，over600percentin l965，werequicklyreplacedbythecombinationofausteritypolicywithtight monetarycontroLwhichhasbecomethehallmarkoftheSuhartoregime，s economicpolicy､Bythetimethefirst5yearplan(Repe/jmI)ｗascommencedin l969，theannualrateofinflationwentdownbelowonedigit，abalancedbudget wasachieved，ａ２．４ＵＳ＄billiondebtleftbythepreviousgovemmentsettled throughtheintemationalconsortium,ＩＧＧＩ,andaboveallthefreshforeigncapitaI

investmentsbegantofindtheirinroadtoIndonesiaduemainlyto“ForeignCapital

PromotionAct，,ｏｆ1967．Ｆｒｏｍｌ９６８ｔｏｌ９７３，fOrexample，theJapaneSe investmentsalonemarkeda30timesjump,eventhoughstartingfiFomthesmaU amount7)

Hadtherenotbeenaquadruplehikeinoilpricesinl973-74，Indonesiamight havegonethroughaｆａｉｒｌｙｓｌｏｗａｎｄｇradualprocessofeconomicgrowthi、ｍｕｃｈ ｔｈｅｓａｍｅｗａｙａｓｍａｎｙｏｔｈｅｒｎｏｎ－ｏilproducingdevelopingeconomies，say，ｌｉｋｅ Thailand,Thel973-4oilpricehike,however,didchangethecourseoflndonesian economicdevelopmentalmosttotaIIywithinovemight、

Ｆｈｎｓｔｏｆａｌｌ，Indonesianeconomyingeneralanｄｔｈｅｇｏｖｅｍｍｅｎｔｐｏｌｉｃｙｉｎ

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YUjiSUZUKI

particularhasbecomeoverwhelminglydependentupontheexportofnatural 正Soul℃es，ｚ"妃ｒαﾉiα，oiLThroughoutthel970，ｓａｎｄｔｈｅｅａｒｌｙ1980,s，over75 percentofthenationalrevenue，almostconstantly,camefromoilandgasexport、

Secondly，thebonanzaofprimaryproductsexportsbroughtahugefinancial

resourcefOrthe"accelerationofmodernization，，(aformerpresidentialadviserLt・

GenAliMoertopo),albeitthestrictlybalancedbudgetpolicy､8)Alargenumberof publiccorporationswereestablishedwithlessquaIifiedmanagementsmainly recruitedfromthearmedforcesConsequently，GNPgrewrapidlybutsodid

cormption．

Thirdly，thisostensiblystate-ledeconomicdevelopmentgavebirthtoinstant

indigenouscapitalists・ＢｕｔｉｎｒｅａＩｉｔｙｔｈｅｙｗｅｒｅｔｈｅｍｅｒｅｐｒｏductofextremely

complicatedstatelegislations，presidentiaIaswellasministerialdecrees，and administrativeguidances，licensingsandsoon，ａｌｌｏｆｗｈｉｃｈｗｅｒｅｔｏｓｅｒｖｅｆＯｒｔｈｅ

ｉｎｔerestofprib"”，theindigenouslndonesisans・TherealdrivingfOrceof economicdevelopment,however,wasａ“triplealliance”betweenfOreign,stateand

localcapitaLinwhichcrucialweretheforeignmultinationalcompaniesandthe

local，mainlyIndonesianChinesecapital.，）

Despitethesestructuralweaknesses，Indonesianeconomymarkedtheunpre-

cedentedrapidgrowthduringthel97０，s，especiallyinthemanufacturingSector・

However,thesecondoilpricehikeofl979-80didnotbringaboutthesimilareffect uponlndonesianeconomyQuitecontrary,itIedtoaseriouscrisis・Notwithstand‐

ingthehigheroilprice，fOreigninvestmentsinIndonesiadeclinedsharplymainly becauseofthesevererecessionindevelopedeconomieslnaddition，byl983oil

pricebegantofaILFurthermore，thelesscompetitiveIndonesianmanufactured goodshadlittlehopetowedgeintothoseincreasinglyprotectivemarketsin developedeconomies､ThecrisisWasmultifOldwhenthetradebalancemarkedthe lowestsurplusinadecade(ＵＳ＄g63miIlion)andhercurrentaccountbalancethe largestdcficitever(US＄6,442million),ｂｏｔｈｉｎｌ983.10)Indeeddifficultwasto reducetheincreasingimports，especiallyofcapitalgoodsneededtoher indusrializationUrgentlyrequiredwasastructuraladjustmentoftheoverall lndonesianeconomy．

4．StrategyfmPNon-OilExport

Ａｓｏｆｌ９８２，ｔｈｅｅｘｐｏｒｔｏｆｏｉｌ，oilproductsandgascombinedoccupied8Z4 percentofthctotalcxport・However，mainIyduetothepricefaIl，especiaUythe sharpestfallinl986,thesharefellto51､７percentinl987，andfOrthefirsttimein decadesitwentbelow50percentofthetotalinl988.Thisphenomenaldeclineof oilrevenuewasthebitterestblowtotheoildependenteconomyoflndonesia・

AlongwiththefaIlofoilrevenue,fbreigninvestmentsalsodeclined1,1983(FY)，

IndonesiaapprovedUS＄１．３bilUonfOreigninvestment,Butinl985,theamount wasIessthanahalf,ＵＳ＄６２５million,thelowestinthedecade、DuetoherIow

saving，IndonesiahasbeendependentuponthetradesurplusandfOreign

investｍｅｎｔｆＯｒｃａｐｉｔａＬＴｈｅｄｏｕｂＩｅｌｏｗｉｎｏｉlrevenueandfOreigninvestment，

therefOre,severeIyhittheeconomy・TheGDPgrowthratefellfrom6・Opercentin

1２２－

ＰＯＬＩＴＩＣＡＬＥＣＯＮＯＭＹＯＦＳＴＲＵＣＴＵＲＡＬＡＤＪＵＳＴＭＥＮＴＢ：ＩＮＤＯＮＥＳＩＡＳＣＡＳＥ

1984ｔｏ３２ｐｅｒｃｅｎｔｉｎｌ９８６・

Undersuchcircumstances，thechosengovernmentpolicywastoboostthenon‐

oilandgasexports,especiaIlytimber,textileandrubber・Therewerebasicallytwo supportivemicroeconomicmeasuresandamacroeconomicadjustmenttakento facUitatetheabovepolicy・

Ｏｎｅwastoincreasethevalueofexportsbyalmosttotallyprohibitingtheexport ofrawmaterialsandsemi-processedproductsandtoencouragethedevelopmentof downstreamprocessingwithhighervalueaddedTheplywoodindustryisa successfulexamplewhichbecamethesecondlargestexportearnerafteroilandgas，

ｍｏｒｅｔｈａｎＵＳ＄Zbillioninl988・Theupandcomingistherattanindustryagain withtheprohibitionofsemi-fineshedrattan

ThesecondmeasurewastopromotefOreigninvestmentsinsuchstrategic industriesasｔｈｏｓｅａｂｏｖｅｉｎｏｒｄｅｒｔｏｍａｋｅｔｈｅｍｍｏｒecompetitiveintheworld marketSuchanexport-orientedindustrializationcertainIyneededtheinjectionof advancedtechnologyfromoutsidewhichwasunavailablefromwithinononehand，

anddemandedtherelocationofsuchindustriesfromtheindustriaIizedto lndonesiaThus,itwasnottotallyfreefromahead-onconflict,suchastheconHict betweenlndonesiaandJapanregardingthefOrmer,splywoodexporttothelatter，

Amacroeconomicadjustmentwasadevaluationofthecurrency,rupiahUnder theextremelytightcontrolofmonetaryandfiscalpoIicies，thecurrencycontinued tobedevaluedagainstUS＄,fOrexamplelUS＄was66L42rupiahinl982,909.26 ｉｎ1983,andthenpreciselywhenmostofAsiancurrenciesbecameupvaluedafter the“PrazaAccord，，ｏｆ1985,theIndonesiancurrencycontinuedｔｏｓｌｉｄｅｉｎｔｅｒｍｓｏｆ

ＵＳ＄,1,282.56ｉｎ1986,1,643.8ｉｎ1987．Thismonetarypolicywasnotdirectly

aimedatthepromotionofexport-orientedindustrizationButitundeniabllyhad suchaneffectasgivingapricecompetitivenessintheworldmarket・'1）

5．DebtsalldInvestments

Ｔｈｅover-extendedinvestmentsinthel970,ｓａｎｄｔｈｅｅａｒｌｙｌ９８０，stumedtobe oneofthemainreasonsfOrthelargestdebtinAsia,whichreachedUS＄５０billion attheendofl988AnotherreasonfOrtherapidriseoflndonesia,sdebt，as indicatedbyamassiveincreaseduringthel986-88periodhPomUS＄３８billion,was theappreciationoftheyen,sinceJapanhadbeenthelargestdonor・Withsuchan increase，thedebtserviceratioalsojumpedtonearly40pementinl988

However，Indonesiadidnottakesuchaconventionalmeasuresasseekingof

debtrescheduleordebtreductionsocommonwithrespecttoLatinAmerican nations・Instead，shechosetomaintainafavourablecreditratingbypayingon timoTheonlyexceptionwasanattempttoeasetbegrosslyappreciatedpaymentto JapanThisattemptofadebtreliefvis-a-visJapandidnotbearfruit・

Withdebtserviceratiothatwasthreetimeshigherthantheconventionalupper

limitof20percent,however,Indonesia，schoicewastoattractmorefavourableaid andinvestmentslndeed,ｔｈｉｓchoicedidbringoneofthelargestfOreignaidinl988

amountingoverUS＄４billion,inthatsalientisthesharpincreaseofJapaneseaid

inthefb1mofconcessionaryloans,ＵＳ＄L4billion・Inaddition,itwasawardedUS

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YUjiSUZUKI

＄L2biIlionbytheWorldBank,ＵＳ＄S50millionbytheAsianDevelopmentBank inthesameyear・Thisrapidriseofaidtolndonesiamaybeinterpretedas“fOreign voteofconfidence，,inlndonesiangovemment,shandlingofhereconomy・'２）

Anotherimportantresultfromtheabovechoicewastberapidincreaseof investmenmotonlybytheEuropcan,theAmericanandtheJapaneseinvestments inIndonesiaItwasalsobyAsｉａｎＮＩＥＳａｓｗｅｌｌａｓｏｔｈｅｒＡＳＥＡＮｍｅｍｂers・For

instance,inl988TaiwaninvestedinlndonesiａＵＳ＄914.1million,ｏｒ２２．７percent

ofthetotalwhichIndonesiareceivedinthatyear・Ｔｈｅｈｉｔｈｅｒｔｏｌargestinvester，

Japan,wasthethirdaftertheUS,onlylittlebitmorethanthatbyHongkongThe combinedamountofinvestmentsbythe4AsianNIES,Korea,Taiwan,Hongkong，

andSingapore,reachedUS＄１．４billion,nearly6timeslargerthanthatbyJapan，

ａｎｄｔｏｏｋｍｏｒｅｔｈａｎｏｎｅｔｈｉｒｄｏｆｔｈｅｔｏtaL

Inaddition,thetypeofinvestmentbytheseeconomiesshowsanenhancedeffort tocombineandcoordinateeachone,sindustrialpolicyanditsstrucmre､Ｔｈｉｓｉｓａ ｓｉｇｎｏｆｎｏｔｏｎｌｙｔｈｅｅｍｅｒｇｅｎceofanintra-regionaldivisionoflabor，butalsoan intra-industrialdivisionoflabor・Thelatterisclearlyseenintheenhanceddivision oflaborinelectronicindustry、Indonesia，ｉｎｔｕｍ，begantoincorporateher industriaIpolicyintoafarmorecomplexregionaleconomictransactions．

6．SoCialChanges

ＴｈｅｇｒａｄｕａｌａｎｄａｔｔｈｅｓａｍｅｔｉｍｅｆＵｎｄamentalchangeoflndonesianeconomy sincetheinceptionofeconomicadjustmentswasnotcertainlyaseparate phenonenonfromnon-economicchanges・Itwas,onemightargue，aresultofthe rapidgrowthbutalsowasthemaincauseoftremendoussocialchangesApartfrom avarietyofissuesonsuchchanges，oneissueisextremelyimortantinrelationto thetopichere,the"structuraladjustments"､Itisnoneotherthantheproblemof emplyoment・

Ｉｔａｐｐｅａｒｓｔｏｂｅａｆａｉｒｌｙｃｏｍｍｏｎｅｘｐｅriencethatoncetheprocessof industrializationbegins，theinter-personalrelationshiftsfromthatofawhole‐

embrasingcommunityorGemai"sch城tothatofapartiallycommittingsocietyor GeseﾉZFcA城.nledeclineoftraditionalviIIageisinevitable・Secondly,thesearchof amaxlmumoppormnitytoobtainpower，wealth，ａｎｄｈｏｎｏｒｗｏｕｌｄｂｅｃｏｍｅｔｈｅ ｏｒｄｅｒｏｆｔheday・Thirdly，ｓｕｃｈａｓｅａｒｃｈａｓｉｎｔｈｅａｂｏｖｅｗｉＩｌｉｎｃreasepeople,s horizontalmovementsandconsequentIytheirvirticalmobility､Thisisparticularly thecaseinlndoncsiaduringthelatterpartofthel980,s、Urbanizationbecamethe commonphenomenonthroughouttheIndonesianarchipelagos・Ahugenumberof transmigrationfroｍｖｉｌｌａｇｅｔｏｔｏｗｎ，ａｎｄｔｏｗｎｔｏｃｉｔｙ，citytometropolecouldnot faiItodemandthecreationofamassivenewjobs

OfficialIy,theunemploymentrateisoftenreportedtobe2to3percent・Ｔｈｅｒｅ ａｒｅａｎｕｍｂｅｒｏｆｇｏｏｄｇｒｏｕｎｄｓｔｏdoubtaboutthefigure，ａｎｄｓｏｍｅｅｓｔｉｍａｔｅｓａｒｅ ｅｖｅｎａｓｈｉｇｈａs30percent・WhetherornoLandevenifonetakesitatitsfacevalue，

thereisanotherbreathtakingproblem,namelythecreationofenoughjobsfOrthe newcomerstolndonesia，slabormarkeLAsofl988,theworkforceis,accordingto govemmentstatistics,estimatedat75milUonAnd，ｉｔｉｓｇｒｏｗｉｎｇｂｙ３ｐｅｒｃｅｎｔｐｅｒ

－１２４－

ＰＯＬＩＴＩＣＡＬＥＣＯＮＯＭＹＯＦＳＴＲＵＣＩＵＲＡＬＡＤＪＵＳＴ１ｂ圧NT君：ＩＮＤＯＮＥＳＩＡ，ＳＣＡSＥ

year，orapproximately2・Zmillionpeopleevelyyear・Ｉｎｏｒｄｅｒｔｏｓｏｌｖｅｔｈｅ

ｕｎｅｍｐｌｏｙｍｅｎｔｐroblemoratleasttokeepunemploymentfromgrowing，some suggests,theeconomymustcontinuetogrowmorerapidlythan5percentayearin ordertosustainthegrowthofemploymentby3percentayear・Ａｓｔｈｅｇｏｖｅｍｍent statisticsreveal，noonesingleyearmarkedanoveralleconomicgrowthby5 percentsincel９８６．１，fact，theywere32percentinl986，３．７percentml987，

approximately4percentinl988・Ｆｒｏｍthis,ｏｎｅｃａｎｅａｓｉｌｙｉｍａｇｉｎｅｔｈａｔＧＮＰｐｅｒ ｃapitagrew，ａｔbest，ｂｙａｍｅｒｅｌｔＯ２ｐｅｒｃｅｎｔｐｅｒｙｅａｒ・ＡｓｔｈｅＷｏｒｌｄＢａｎｋ reported,duetothecurrencyslideindollartcrms,Indonesia,spercapitadeclined，

namelyUS＄s30inl985，ＵＳ＄S00inl986,ａｎｄＵＳ＄４５０ｉｎ1987.(13）

Thestagnationofpercapitaincomewithapossiblegrowthofunemployment becameoneofthemajorconcemsofthegovemment・Withthcrecognitionof unemploymentasathreattotheeconomicstabilityinthedaystocome,thefifth5 yearplansettheofficialtargetofeconomicgrowthby5percent・Yet，evenwith

anotheroilpricehike，itwouldbeexceedinglydifficulttofUlfilltheburgeoning

demandfOrjobs,aslongastheon-goingadjustmentissetfOrtheenhancementof competitivenessｉｎｔｈｅｗｏｒｌｄｍａｒｋｅｔｒａｔｈｅｒｔｈａｎｔｈｅｉmprovementofdomestic

livingstandards、

Inthisregard，oneshouldnotoverlookthemostrecenttrendinwhich unemploymentamongtheeducatedisgrowing・Traditionallythegovernmentor governmentaffiliatedpublicinstitutionshaveofferedenoughjobsfOrthosehighly educated,However,sincethefallofoilpriceandthesubsequentimplementation ofsevereausteritybycuttingjobsinpublicSector,theunemploymentrateinthis categｏｒｙｏｆｗｏｒｋｆＯｒｃｅｓｅｅｍｓｔｏｂｅｇｒｏｗｉｎｇ・Takingitintoconsiderationthat

preciselythisgroupofpeoplehasplayedacrucialroIeinbringingaboutpoliticaI

change，ifnotjustpoIiticalturmoiL

7・ProspectsofAdjustments‐Conclusion

lndonesia,sexperienceofeconomicadjustmentsinthel98０，s,asseeninthe above,unequivocallyconveysthefOllowingmessages,Firstofall,theadjustments

werenecessarytoputanupperlimittotheoverextendedstateinvolvementin

economicdevelopｍｅｎｔｏｎｏｎｅｈａｎｄ，andtoreducelndonesia，soverdependence upontheinternationaleconomy，especiallythemarketsandcapitalsofthe developedeconomies，ｏｎｔｈｅｏｔｈｅｒ、Theadjustmentpoliciesproducedsome satisfactoryresultsuchastheincreaseinexports,ｍｏｒｅｈ｢eshinvestments,infIation undercontrol,ａｎｄｓｏｏｎＡｔｔｈｅｓａｍｅｔｉｍｅ,however,theveryprocessgavebirthto thelesscontrollableproblcms，includingafurtherdependenceuponthe internationalandregionaleconomies，increasedgapofcompetitivenesswiththe risingAsianeconomies，tradeconnictsinspecificindustrieswithlargemarket economies，andaboveall，serioussocialdislocationsandexplosiveproblemsof

unemployment・

Secondly,ｉｎordertoescapesuchadilemmaandatthesametimetorefrainfrom thesuperimpositionoffurtherstatecontroloverthealreadyheavilycontrolled economy,anewlyfOundpolicywasso-calledderegulation・Indonesiangovemment

125

YujiSUZUKI

startedanumberofmeasuresforthispurposesincetheverybeginningof

adjustmentprocessButitbecamefarmoresenousafterseeingmoretroubIesthan solutionsfromthetootightcontrolofeconomylnl988itbegantotransfersome importantpublicmonopoliesintoprivatesectors・Ｔｈｉｓ“privatization,，policyhas yettoproducearealrefOrmtothemuchregulatedeconomyinwhichdominantare stillpubliccorporations・

Thirdly,sincethetopmanagementofthosepubliccorporationshasbeenalmost tOtallymonopolizedbythearmedfOrces,especialIytheofficercorpsortheretired，

thereformofeconomycannotbeseparatedfrompoliticalrefOrms・Indeed,inthis regard，ｒｉｓｉｎｇａｒｅｔｈｅｄｅｍａｎｄｓｆｏｒａｍｏｒｅｅｑｕaldistributionoftheoutcomesof economicdevelopmentononehandandontheotherfOramoreparticipationby non-militarypersonnelinpolicy-makingprocessaswellastheirimplementation processes・Recently,onecannotoverlookthatthesedemandsareexpressedbynot onlythemassofthoseintheprocessofpovertization,butalsothehighlyeducated whohavebeenincreasinglyfrustratedbytheinertiaandinherentconservatismof

theregime・'4)However,duetotheformidablepowerstillfirmlyinthehandsofthe

armedfOrces，thepoliticalreformdoesnotappeartoproceedinthespeed expected，norwiththemagnituderequiredbytherapidlychangingeconomy・

Inviewoftheaboveconditions,Indonesia，s"structuraladjustments，，wouldbea farlongerandgradualprocess,whichhasjustbegun,sothatitwouldtakealittle bitmorｅｔｉｍｅｔｏｃｏｍｅｔｏｔｈｅｐｏｉｎｔｗｈｅｒｅｓｕｃｈfundamentalquestionsas dependency,statemonopoly,administrativeintervension,moreequaldistribution ofbenefit,ａｎｄｓｏｏｎ,wouldbecomethecentralissueofpoliticaldemocratization．

Notes

1）CliffOrdGeertz,“ThePoliticsofMeaning",ｉｎhis，７１ｈｅ肱陀'pだ､"o〃ｑ/Ｃ皿/､花３，

Hutchinson＆ＣＯ.，London，1975,ｐ､316

2）UlfSundhaussen,"Indonesia:PastandPresentEncounterswithDemocracy",inLarry Diamond,JuanJLintz,andSeymourMartinLipseteds.,Ｄｅ"zoclaC)ﾉ'〃、eyeﾉDpmg CmJ"["es，VOL３Ａｓｉａ，LynneRiennerPublishers，Boulder，Colorado，1989,ｐ､423 3）MicheaILeifer,I"do"ａｓ､'８Ｆb1℃jglzPDﾉﾉCy,GeorgeAllen＆Unwin,London,1983,

xvii

4）FranklinBWeinstein,〃ｄｏ"２s､〃Fbrejg〃ＰＣﾉﾉｃｙａ"ｄＺｈｅＤｊ/ｅｍｍｑｑﾉﾉ"妃rdepe"d‐

ｅ"Ce，CorncllUniversityPress，Ithacs，NewYork，1976,pp42-44 5）ルノ｡，ppl9-41

6）RichardRobison,“TowardaClassAnalysisofthelndonesianMilitalyBureaucratic State"．Ｉ"do"Ｇｓｉａ，voL25(1978)，ppl8-23

7）YujiSuzuki,TbⅡ"α〃Ａﾉｾﾞα〃ｏＫｊｋｉ〃ＣＫＯ"zm4(TheStructureofCrisisinSoutheast Asia)，KeisouShobou,Tokyo，1982,ｐ70

8）AliMoertopo,ＳｏｍｅＢｍｊｃＴ/uoⅨgﾉ"ｓｏ〃(/ueAccekrα"o〃α"dModer"izα"o〃ofお ｙｾαが、eyeﾉOpme"′，CenterforStrategicandlnternationalStudics，Jakarta，1973, pp83-85

9）Theconceptofa"tripIealliancc"ofmultinational,state,andlocalcapitalisborTowed fromPeterEvans,Depe"｡e"'Deveﾉ｡pｍｅ"【:ｍｅＡﾉﾉｊａ"ceq/Ｍ皿ﾉ""α"o"αﾉ,Ｓｍに,α"d LocdJノCt2pjmノノ〃Ｂｍｚｊノ，PrincetonUniversityPress，Princeton，１９７９

－１２６－

ＰＯＬＩＴＩＣＡＬＥＣＯＮＯＭＹＯＦＳＴＲＵＣＴＵＲＡＬＡＤＪＵＳＴＭＥＮＴＳ：ＩＮＤＯＮＥＳＩＡＳＣＡＳＥ

１０）ThefiguresaretakenfromThelnstituteofDeveIopingEconomiesed,Ａ/jtJDo"ん”

ノVC"kα〃（AnnalsofAsia)，ＩＤＥＰｒｅｓｓ,Tokyo，1988,ｐ480

11）JonHalldorsson，“AHigherProfilefOrlndonesia",so､ﾉie“jAsja〃Ａ/iItJjだＩ989, 1,stituteofSoutheastAsianStudies，Singapore，1989,pl40

12）必jcf

l3）SeeTheWorldBank，Wol/dDeveﾉOpme"JRepol〔I98ZI988，ノ”９．

１４）Ontheconservatismofthercgimc,seeKarlDJackSon,"ThePoliticallmplicationsof StructureandCultureinIndonesia"，ｉｎｈｉｓａｎｄＬｕｃｉａｎＷ・Ｐｙｅｅｄｓ.，ＰｂｌｊｌｊｃａﾉＰｏｗｅｒ α"ｄＣｏｍｌ"uｲ"j“"o"ｓｊ〃〃do"esja，UniversityofCalifOmiaPress，Berkeley，1978,

α"ｄＣｏｍｌ"uｨ"j“"o"s

pp23-42

127